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I think Joe makes a very valid point about the fact that the NDP caucus has sooo much new young blood right now that what we need more of are experienced people who could serve in a future cabinet. Marilyn Churley would be one of several people who could fit that bill since she had several portfolios in the Rae government and she certainly has name recognition in T-D to say the least. This is not an endorsement - but I agree with the points raised.
For what it's worth....
Marilyn Churley was born in 1948, so she's 63 now. Were she to become the NDP candidate in Toronto-Danforth and win the by-election, she would be younger than several (6-8?) of the female NDP M.P.s there now.
She served 15 years as a provincial politician, including holding cabinet porfolios. And represented that particular area.
The NDP needs more experienced politicians to help all of the newbies through to the next election, to act as a government in waiting.
The more female NDP M.P.s there are, the closer the Party comes to truly reflecting Canadian society.
Unless someone can come up with some factual reason why Churley shouldn't try for the nomination, I say 'Go For It!'
cf. Link in Sask
Four: Nycole Turmel, 69; Denise Savoie, 67; Francine Raynault, 65 or 66; and Lise St-Denis, 70 or 71. (By the way, both the last two ran in 2008.)
I agree Joe's logic for an experienced hand in Ottawa makes excellent sense.
One other point, I saw a Facebook post from a Toronto based friend tonight that he had been called by the Conservatives asking for support in the by-election. They may have little hope in the riding, but they appear to be getting ready.
Andrew Brewin, MP from 1962 to 1979; Reid Scott, MPP from 1948 to 1951, MP from 1962 to 1968; Neil Young, MP from 1980 to 1993. Ken Bryden, MPP from 1959 to 1967. Marion Bryden, MPP from 1975 to 1990. John Brown, MPP 1967 to 1971.
I'm surprised that there has been no mention of the Liberals yet, I know Andrew Lang plans on running for the nomination again but it's odd that the party has yet to nominate someone. I heard George Smitherman's name mentioned but I don't know if he has discussed possibly running federally or if it's just rumors.
Hey I just got called about half an hour ago by someone asking me if I was going to "support Stephen Harper"...no mention of a local candidate at all. Could be the Harperites are trying to figure out whether it's worth their while to find a high profile candidate and then pour piles of campaign cash into the riding to tie the NDP up in knots. Thing is, the Harperites have tons of cash to play with even though their chances of winning are zilch in this part of town.
Is it possible Harper will call the by election soon then?
RE: I don't think the riding would appreciate an outsider running here.
I agree with that - if someone too far outside of the riding runs, they will be punished. It should be someone local and respected. They may accept someone from a bordering riding if they live near the border, but there is no such thing as a safe seat.
I would like El Farouk Khaki, but he may be too far outside the riding.
There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning are faint.
But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.
By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.
There are concrete benefits for the Conservatives working the riding for everything they can get, even if the chances of winning arevery faint.
But yes, it has everything to do with having buckets of cash.
By comparison, we put virtually nothing into a riding like mine, Kings-Hants, that we should win when the incumbent steps down, which easily could be the next election. We put zip in when there is little chance of winning NOW.
Those are all people who represented what is now Beaches-East York NOT Toronto-Danforth (which used to be called Broadview and then Broadview-Greenwood)
And I understand he's heavily involved with EGALE right now.
He also ran twice in Toronto-Centre and both times had just about the worst NDP results of all time in that riding...
Actually, he did better there than Jack Layton did in 1993. Just saying. (Yeah, I know. 1993.)
The tories get to test out their newest micro-targeting gimmicks, might just win, and if they win or come close, all of a sudden the NDP and Libs will have to spend a lot more energy in T.O.
A couple weeks ago I met a young woman at Occupy Toronto who mentioned she is planning on seeking the nomination. She is a union organizer staying at Occupy Toronto. Don't recall her name, though she mentioned she ran previously in another riding. I am glad at least one woman will be seeking the nomination.
Also, doesn't Michael Shapcott live in Toronto-Danforth? I know he ran in Toronto-Centre a few years back. Has anyone approached him about running? What about Cathy Crowe as a potential candidate?
The Tories can "micro-target" all they want - but the votes have to be there for them in the first place. Of the 308 ridings in Canada - Toronto-Danforth is close to dead last as a riding with any significant level of Tory support. They would win there the day they will EVERY seat in the country. The NDP would probably WELCOME a major Tory effort in 416 Toronto ridings since it would take votes from the Liberals and help the NDP win those ridings by an even bigger margin than before!
I'm not argiung T-D is Con-winnable; however, Tory support there may have been artificially lowballed by Layton lately--whether it's the Liberals as a repository for anti-Layton votes, or Layton as a repository for anti-Liberal votes. (And municipally, Case Ootes must have gotten his erstwhile support from *somewhere*.)
I don't think CPC support in T-D has been at all suppressed by the "Layton effect". THe Tories tend to do very badly in ALL the ridings in the old inner city City of Toronto. They don't just do badly in T-D, they also do very badly in Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, Beaches-East York etc...
Case Ootes mostly got his votes from people who vote Liberal provincially and federally. In a riding like T-D that is such an NDP stronghold - the local Liberals tend to be particularly rightwing and viscerally anti-NDP.
It's only "suppressed" in the sense of it maybe being a few points below where it'd otherwise be, i.e. it's Layton who made it closer to "worst" than "one of the worst". Otherwise, it'd be closer to a B-EY type of seat, where the Conservatives don't do *that* badly, considering--and could even have assumed second place had Maria Minna not run again.
Which'd be the Conservative version of "moral victory" in T-D, I suppose: still getting thumped, but nipping the Liberals for 2nd...
The Cons making the best show possible in T-D is not about moral victories or at least coming out ahead of the Liberals [which in itself they could not care less about].
It is about a long term national/regional campaigning strategy- and having the cash to invest in that everywhere.
By comparison, even during election campaigns we do not even put resources into our entire 'third tier' of seats where the chances of winning this election are remote, but we have a serious chance for anytime after the current election. Let alone the spending across the range of riding development potential that the Conservatives do between elections, while we do virtually none anywhere.
A good result for the Conservatives in Toronto Danforth is having a sign up.
For the record, the Liberals did 17.62%, the Cons 14.32% in T-D last time. I mean, that's still the basement; but, still...
Ootes was almost knocked off last time he ran, which is why he decided to retire (at the end of his term) about, oh, a minute after the recount. Better to go out as the champ.
Good point, but as you say the Conservatives have a lot more money to spread around for things like this. The opposition parties don't. I suppose one could ask if you put 0$ in to 3rd tier ridings, or put 1000$ into them, which would on average take away from 1st and 2nd tier ridings would that really help the party's strategic position? A fair question and something to try perhaps.
I believe the Tories spent the full amount allowed by law in the Winnipeg North by election last year. They still barely saved their deposit.
Winnipeg North is different. They pursued that as a long shot at winning. Oops. They were after the immediate gains.
The efforts in downtown core Toronto- the old City- are stepping stones in a long term and national/regional development program.
To VK's point- I'm not advocating re-allocating the slices on the same small pie. If we want to beat the Conservatives, we have to raise more money. Period.
Which means it has to be made more of a priority. That in turn is part and parcel, integrated with growing the party organizationaly.... which is never going to happen as long as we continue to tiptoe our way through the balkanized federated structure where the federal party simply does not have an organizational infrastructure. This gets discussed from a few angles in the thread on beating the Conservatives. ....albeit that particular organizational question, more in the predecesor thread.
What about the timing of the by-election?
If I understand the law, Harper must call the by-election within six months of it being declared vacant, or by late February or early March. Harper then can schedule the byelection a full year into the future from that point. In other words as late as March 2013.
The leadership vote is on March 24. If Topp were to win Broadview would be an obvioius entry into Parlaiment.
Harper is fullly capabale of making mischief. He could call the byelection for shortly before the leadership vote presenting Topp withthe dilemma of whether he should run at the same time as pursuing the leadership. He would also have to secure the nomination, which may not be a sure thing. I have heard from one B-G member that there may be some opposition to him. It would be extremely embarassing for his leadership hopes if he tried for and lost the nomination.
This would necessitate a sitting member in likley a less "safe" seat that B-G steeping aside for Topp if he became leader and his entry into Parliament delayed as much as another 18 months.