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Toronto-Danforth byelection 3
November 29, 2011 - 2:24pm
The plot thickens in Toronto-Danforth. Today Claire Prashaw - who was Jack's Constituency Assistant - announced she was running for the nomination and apparently it is increasingly looking like Marilyn Churley will go for it...I heard that Topp now says he will NOT run in Danforth and will seek a seat elsewhere if he becomes leader.
My own view is that what the NDP needs right now are either more experienced veterans to balance out a caucus full of rookies (enter Churley) or some really big name person who is a household name in some NGO etc...who would be a definite front bencher.
The Liberals opened nominations last week.
Hopefully the Liberals will recycle that ridiculously bad candidate they ran against Layton in '08 and '11
He announced early on that he would run again, though I highly doubt that he will be nominated if others come forward.
Her website tells of all her great experience. She's also young, with fresh new ideas. I think that's Toronto-Danforth needs; young and professional.
No offence to Marilyn, but she's not gonna be around for the long-haul. Though she's wonderful, she's in her later sixties and won't be around for long. I think this Claire can represent Toronto-Danforth for long time, with good knowledge.
Then again, he's got the bloodlines. (Which is also why I suggested his sister Amanda might be "better", still.)
Actually I think Marilyn Churley is about 59 or 60 - NOT in her "late 60s" and definitely not at death's door. I'm not taking sides here - Claire Prashaw sounds great as well and there may be other candidated too. But as I said before, the NDP has tons of young rookies right now in Ottawa - what the parties needs are experienced people who have served in government.
Stephen Lewis?
At 74 I think he has a little to much experience. :)
Audrey McLaughlin.
All right, all right, kidding. But you said NGO.
In the previous thread to this, Argagh12345, I said that Marilyn was born in 1948, and turns 64 in 2012, so I hardly think she wouldn't be around for long. She would be an ideal candidate to hold the riding for, let's say 2 terms, when hopefully one of Jack's children would be interested in running for Parliament.
Why is being a "professional" so essential?
sounds like they already are.
Being Jack Layton's constituency assistant implies that she has a strong understanding of the riding and the mechanics of government and thus isn't a "rookie" per se.
I agree that she probably knows the riding inside out...but she would still be a rookie as a Member of Parliament in Ottawa.
As this article makes clear, his dance card is very, very full, anyway.
Anyone here anything on the Liberals? Their nominations are open but I haven't seen any articles on interested candidates.
the only one that actually sounds confirmed is Andrew Lang, who lost to Jack in 08/11
Lang will have a better chance now. He will actally be the familiar face. LOL!
Sometimes familiarity breeds contempt!
I'd say any Liberal candidate, be it Lang or anyone else, will greatly improve their number from May, just simply because Jack's name won't be on the ballot.
With the Liberal slide, they'll be lucky to get a marginal improvement, even without Jack on the ballot.
And remember, the Cons are actively working on eating the Liberals lunch in Toronto- even where there is no hope of winning the seat. And especially in a very visible by-election.
We just had a provincial election and as you know provincial riding boundaries in Ontario are identical to federal boundaries. The NDPer on the ballot was someone other than Jack Layton, the party was led by someone other than Jack Layton and on top of that the provincial Liberals did very well across the province with 37% - a % the federal party can only dream of. So I thinki we should look at the provincial Toronto-Danforth results in October as a good gauge of straight partisan slant of the riding with no major "x" factors (ie: Layton being leader and on the ballot and the Liberals crashing and burning). They are as follows:
NDP - 54%
Liberals 31%
PC - 9%
Green - 4%
In a federal byelection, the Tories might make some effort and get up into the mid-teens (woith a corresponding Liberal drop) but otherwise - this is the yardstick.
That would still be a good improvement for the Liberals, as well the provincial riding had an NDP incumbent which helped them. I think the Liberals number could double from the 17% they won in May.
Its funny how quickly the Liberals have become similar to what the NDP used to be...bragging about how their 30-odd seats and 18-19% support in national opinion polls means they are still relevant...getting excited about the prospect of increasing their popular vote in a byelection - even if they still lose the seat by a 2 to 1 margin etc...It makes me almost feel nostalgic.
"Could double". Taking 1:10 against that outcome looks like it would be a pretty safe bet.
Are you trying to call me a Liberal?
I think he was. Just ignore it.
Vincent Lam would make a great candidate for Danforth. I saw him speak about his biography of Tommy Douglas at the NDP in convention in Vancouver...and when he was asked "so when are you going to run?" he said he was very happy with his MP, Jack Layton.
http://www.vincentlam.ca/about.php
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/nomination-...
Craig Scott who is now seeking the nomination for the NDP sounds very impressive:
http://www.osgoode.yorku.ca/faculty/full-time/craig-m-scott