Toronto-Danforth byelection 3

There is a new Craig Scott thread in the Canadian politics section - fighting for first place with the 69th Federal Leadership thread.

Grant Gordon, a hopeful for the T-D Liberal nomination, put out a hilarious e-flyer. 

http://www.keygordon.com/eblasts/grant_for_liberals/grant-liberal-nomina...

Depending on your point of view he's either brilliant, or very symbolic of the Liberals (two-faced is their stereotype after all), or doing the only sane thing you can do when you probably won't win - have a sense of humour and be visible (e.g. Nathan Cullen in the NDP race).

I think the NDP probably have the edge in this by-election.  Although the riding was Liberal throughout the Chrétien years prior to Layton winning it, I think a lot of residual support for Layton will remain and go to the new NDP candidate.  And while Liberal numbers have improved in Ontario since the last federal election, they are still not high enough to predict a Liberal comeback in former Toronto strongholds.  The NDP also hold the riding provincially.

Still, the Liberals could have a decent showing.  Unlike Michael Ignatieff who had no political skills or experience and didn't know much about the ridings in Ontario, Bob Rae knows every single one, particularly those in Toronto, from his days as both a federal NDP MP and as Ontario Premier.  

As Bob Rae said at the Liberal convention this month when he was asked about the upcoming by-election, he knows Danforth pretty well since he used to represent that riding in its Broadview-Greenwood days when he was an NDP MP!  So I think Bob Rae will make sure a good campaign is run, something I don't think Ignatieff could handle if he were still leader.

The Greens are comatose- especially in Toronto, despite there being more of them there.

No question Iggy was organizationaly clueless, and Booby is not. But it wont make any difference. Rae is the salve- at least for now- for the air war. But he cant fix what ails the LPC on the ground, what is left of it.

Ironically, Rae's by-election is the last time the centre put even a decent effort into a by campaign. Lamoreaux won on his own organizational savy and cachet, because that's all you get these days.

They wouldnt know how anyway, but dont look to the LPC or the Ontario PTA to be pouring cash into this longshot. They'll be looking for the best bang fro buck in getting a decent showing and at least not being shown up by the Cons, who it would be a surprise if they do not spend the limit.... which is much more in a by-election because the party is allowed to spend a lot of money on top of the riding campaign limit.

I didnt say they have no pulse.

13% in 2008. 6.5% in 2011. Lucky to clear 3% in 2012... and the resources on the ground to match.

None of which means they cannot have meetings and nominations.

 

seems to me that the Green Party had higher support in the polls and got more publicity back when they had no seats anywhere. Now that Elizabeth May is an MP its as if the Green Party is just some super-structure to support her being a quasi-Independent MP for Saanisch-Gulf Islands and in the other 307 ridings across Canada - that party really does not exist at all.

The ground operations of the Liberal Party are already improving since last year's federal elections.  And the Liberals remain particularly strong in Toronto, an area that the Ontario Liberals just swept a few months ago.  During last fall's provincial election, the Federal liberals started to work more closely with the provincial liberals and to learn how they can turn their failures into successes like their provincial cousins.  To what extent this will help in the Toronto-Danforth by-election is too early to tell, but I don't think the Liberals have to worry about the Conservatives overtaking them.

What's interesting is that until 2011, Layton wasn't able to break the 50% barrier in T-D, despite being party leader.  In 2004, 2006, & 2008, Layton's victory was in the 44-48% range.  It wasn't until the big orange crush in 2011 that he scored a huge victory and won with 60%.

Whatever the final numbers are in the T-D by-election, I suspect they will look something like those of the elections prior to 2011.

Let's nor forget that around the time of the byelection, the ontario liberals are going to bring down a budget that is almost certain to be filled with some very unpopular cuts in the name of 'austerity" and that will not help them in a byelectipn.

I would agree the Green vote was a factor, but I don't think it was the determining factor.  The main reason Jack didn't break 50% until his last election (and we saw the same thing in other ridings like Trinity-Spadina) is because until 2011, a large number of people were still voting Liberal.

As for the ground operation, it's hard to know how strong it will be until the actual election.  The Liberals were able to win Winnipeg North and almost beat Julian Fantino in Vaughan, so the last 2 by-elections were not bad for the Libs.  As I mentioned above, there have also been some improvements to ground operations since last May's election with people taking it more seriously than before and with the federal liberals learning some tools to success from the recent victory of their provincial Ontario cousins.

One advantage the Liberals will also have will be Bob Rae - he used to represent the riding himself and said at the convention last month that he will be taking a personal involvement in the race there, and will no doubt help the candidate campaign.  Since the NDP do not yet have a leader in place, that will give Rae an advantage over Nycole Turmel in that area.

Whether that's enough to make a difference, remains to be seen.

Incidentally, as I have mentioned in the past, the Prime Minister should not be allowed to wait 6 months to call a by-election.  This is something Ed Broadbent used to talk about as well.  It is not right to a leave a riding vacant for so long without the people having representation.  Harper usually waits until the last moment to call a by-election.  As Broadbent and others have said, ridings should be filled much sooner than that, as they are in the British system.

100% disagree.



100% agree.

As for the Liberal vote, Andrew Lang and his tactics were the entire cause of his collapse from 28% in 2008 to barely 18% in 2011, a mere 2% higher than the Conservative non-candidate, and judging from the tone at the door, the next Liberal candidate has alot of work cut out for them to blow the stench of that campaign away. And judging from the two nominees and the fairly silly, but hilariously ironic PR piece one of them has put out, it's not going to be that hard to point out to T-D voters that the Libs will do and say anything to anyone to get a vote.  I half expected to see Adrianna pop up as the Liberal nominee, pulling a Paul Charbonneau and Katie Holloway, but i guess post-electiion breakfast with Andrew didn't work out ;-)

Not the entire cause, to be fair.  After all, the collapse more or less corresponded with the collapse of the Liberals Toronto-wide...

The Liberals will huff and puff and then...

Blow their own (seats in the) House down?

Oh dear: this the Tories effectively waving the white flag already. Many Toronto MPs live outside their ridings, but Markham?! That's stretching it a bit much. But hey-ho, the campaign will be fully funded, and the Tory campaign manager will have plenty of signs and lit to give out to the few souls who drift in through the campaign office's doors.

In 1982 Tony Blair ran for Labour in a by election in a safe Tory seat. He came in a very distant third. In 1983 he was given the nomination in a safe Labour seat.