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NDP Leadership 83

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Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

JeffWells wrote:

 Nycole Turmel's uninspiring interregnum will be long forgotten.

Exactly, does anyone remember who was the uninspriring interim Liberal leader for about a year in 1989-1990 when the Liberals seemed in disarray and in danger of falling behind the NDP?? (ANSWER: Herb Gray). btw: The Liberals went on to win a landslide majority in 1993

Does anyone remember where the federal Tories/Canadian Alliance were at in 2001/2002? Reminder, the PCs were leaderless and in disarray and the Canadian Alliance was split down the middle over the Stockwell day disaster and they were polling in single digits. The interim leader was John Reynolds (who???). Look at who is in power today??


CanadaApple
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Joined: Dec 1 2011

KenS wrote:

After the Toronto debate there were a number of comments about how all the candidates have shown considerable improvement in presenting themselves.

Maybe it not being news anymore is why there is a bit less of that in comments this time. But I think it came across even more this time.

Keep in mind that with the exception of Mulcair this is WAY beyond anything like what they have done before- inculding the most of them that are MPs. And Tom is only partialy an exception in that he has considerable experience being in the limelight and on the hot seat right now- but even for him, nothing like this.

I've noticed in particular the improvement of the consensus two weakest in starting: Topp and Nash.

Peggy Nash. A few people seemed to see Peggy as having gone off flat last night. Someone else already said what I noted right off: we were told not to applaud, and mostly did as told. Here's my take on Peggy. She's been working hard at 'the wooden thing'... even acting flustered at times. She's not like that in person. So when you work on that, you adapt what works for you to the stage presence that has not been working. I think she succeded at that. But its still new. It's a work in progress for her, so she got the part she has been working on right. But while concentrating on that, she missed part two: paying attention to the audience. She's learning fast, she'll get it right.

Brian Topp had even more to work on. Not even the limited experience that comes with running for and being an MP. And a fairly quiet guy to boot. So he's far from natural, has a number of nervous tics, and the time constraints are even worse for his desire and capacity to frame larger ideas. While Brian's progress on stage has been noted, I think like Peggy a lot of it is being missed because people are looking at the 'final product' rather than the work in progress. Before Toronto Brian obviously worked on both not running over his time, and of getting what he had to say across more quickly. But it was still brand new for him, so there were a couple times when he just stopped abruply with time still on the clock. I happened to be sitting behind the lo tech timekeeper in the Halifax debate, with his big home made flash cards of seconds remaining. Brian was the one most consistently staying in his time, and he seemed to have the pacing down for what he wanted to say. I've seen comments here that people still see him as forced [or something like that]. I think thats to be expected for someone who is still developing what works for them.

 

I agree that Nash and Topp have improved. Saganash has as well I think.

On a slightly different topic, will the Quebec City debate be done in all french?

 


CanadaApple
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Joined: Dec 1 2011

Stockholm wrote:

Except that in several FPTP countries like the UK and Australia and for many years in New Zealand - social democratic parties won majorities under FPTP.

Funny you should mention Sweden. Right now Sweden is governed by a so-called "bourgeois coalition" of the centre right that consiets of the Moderate party (conservative), the Centre party (farmers), the Christian Democrats (bible thumpers) and the Liberal Party. In Sweden the Liberals (who tend to be the party of highly educated professionals) would NEVER in a hundred million years ever support a social democratic party government that would favour their class enemies etc... it is a given in Sweden and across Scandinavia that Liberals ALWAYS 100% of the time, form alliances with conservatives to STOP social democrats. I think the same would happen in Canada under PR.

Australia uses AV, or whatever it might be called there.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

CanadaApple wrote:

On a slightly different topic, will the Quebec City debate be done in all french?

I have no information on this but I would hope it would be all French + 1 English question. Kind of like the way debates in English Canada have been run. Otherwise, I'm sure we will hear some mighty bleating from the NDP's enemies in the punditsphere.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

JeffWells wrote:

Howard wrote:

Until it stabilizes Jeff Wells? What is the source of the instability...on yeah, the NDP numbers plummeting.

What I said was

JeffWells wrote:

I don't think individual polls deserve much attention until the scene "normalizes," which will be no sooner than the end of March and possibly as late as the Liberal leadership convention.

The reasons for the dropping numbers are obvious, unavoidable and temporary. There's always a reason for watchfulness but no cause now for great alarm. It's more than three years before the next election and that's more than enough time for a new leader to make an impact. Nycole Turmel's uninspiring interregnum will be long forgotten.

I'm sorry for misattributing your words. I remain highly concerned with the NDP's fall.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

writer wrote:

Quote:

Light on the water
A portrait of MP Romeo Saganash

“She had her crew with her, my sister, so they filmed the scene where they were looking for him,” Romeo says. “And we hear the other lady say, ‘well, you are standing on your little brother.’ And she crumbled in the snow – it was winter, and she crumbled.”

A break in the conversation – the impossible decision of whether to tell his mother. Finally, he shows her the film that Emma made of that day.

“I have seen my mom – cry – many, many times. Many times in my life,” Romeo tells me. There are tears in his eyes now.

“But never the way she cried that day. Never.”

Amazing article.


writer
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Joined: Apr 11 2002

Howard, this weekend his mother's best friend died. The funeral is today. I think this article goes some distance to explaining what the loss means to both the community and to Romeo Saganash himself.

Rest in peace, Jackie Gull.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

I think Saganash would make a great Governor-General once the NDP forms a government and Johnston's term is up.


Unionist
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Joined: Dec 11 2005

Or what about Saganash as PM and Mulcair as Governor-General?

We've already had a G-G named Romeo. Time for a Tom?

 


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

Stockholm wrote:
In Sweden the Liberals (who tend to be the party of highly educated professionals) would NEVER in a hundred million years ever support a social democratic party government that would favour their class enemies etc... it is a given in Sweden and across Scandinavia that Liberals ALWAYS 100% of the time, form alliances with conservatives to STOP social democrats.
 

Which is probably why they only have 7% of seats in the Riksdag. The Liberals are considered a fringe right party in Sweden and are rewarded for it proportionally and not strategically.


writer
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Joined: Apr 11 2002

8th Fire Q&A: Diom Roméo Saganash

"I do the same thing as my father, except my territory is larger."

Whose land is it anyway? 8th Fire, episode 3

 


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Fidel wrote:

Stockholm wrote:
In Sweden the Liberals (who tend to be the party of highly educated professionals) would NEVER in a hundred million years ever support a social democratic party government that would favour their class enemies etc... it is a given in Sweden and across Scandinavia that Liberals ALWAYS 100% of the time, form alliances with conservatives to STOP social democrats.
 

Which is probably why they only have 7% of seats in the Riksdag. The Liberals are considered a fringe right party in Sweden and are rewarded for it proportionally and not strategically.

If we had PR in Canada, I think the Liberals would quickly become a small "boutique" party for high educated high income professionals (i.e. Canada's version of the German FDP or "the party of doctors and dentists") and they would consistently get their 30-35 seats from about 10% of the vote and they would become a semi-permanent coalition partner to the Conservatives.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

I have a hard time arguing with you. Youre just no fun anymore, Stockholmer.


dacckon
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Joined: May 19 2011

Of course the polls are falling, as they did in the election.

 

But then we rose up, whats not to say it won't happen again and again?


JKR
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Joined: Jan 15 2005

Stockholm wrote:

Except that in several FPTP countries like the UK and Australia and for many years in New Zealand - social democratic parties won majorities under FPTP.

Funny you should mention Sweden....

So why haven't the "big tent" left parties in the UK, New Zealand, Australia, and the US been able to replicate the much better record of social democrats in PR countries like Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, etc...? Why is it that left-wing governments in FPTP countries seem unable to match the levels of social democracy of even the right-wing governments in PR countries?

The key difference between FPTP and PR is that FPTP is a rigid two-party system while PR is a flexible multi-party system.  FPTP tends to create two big tent parties that are very difficult to replace because adding more parties causes vote splitting. The corporate elite understands this and thus they always back one Conservative Party and if they are lucky they back another party if it causes vote splitting on the left. And since it is very difficult to establish new parties with FPTP, corporate elites find it easy to influence leftish parties like the NDP without the fear that this will result in the creation of new left-wing parties.

 As it is under FPTP, the "social democratic" NDP can't easily call for raising taxes on the top 1%. Saganash's question to Topp was very revealing. Is Topp playing into the hands of the Conservative attack machine by mentioning tax increases on the very wealthy? Being a diehard social democrat Topp effectively defended raising taxes by showing that:

 If Mitt Romney were Canadian, he would pay even less tax!

Quote:

 But if Romney were filing Canadian taxes, we estimate he would have paid even less, even though Canada’s tax rates are generally considered to be substantially higher than the U.S.

Running the U.S. numbers on a Canadian return, assuming no foreign currency adjustment and assuming his dividends would be Canadian dividends had he lived in Canada, Romney would have paid $2,973,021 of Canadian federal tax in 2011 on his $20.9-million of income, which translates to an effective federal tax rate of only 14.2%, more than a percentage off the 15.4% he is forecast to pay.

Social democratic parties in PR countries like Sweden would have no difficulty critisizing a taxation system that is even more favourable to bilionaires then the US's. And because of that, these PR countries have taxation levels that have been able to produce more egalitarian societies then the FPTP countries.

How would members of the corporate elite have felt watching the NDP convention? Wouldn't they have felt reassured that Canada's left-wing party can only go as far as raising taxes via cap and trade in order to create a fairer society? And wouldn't they thank their lucky stars that FPTP has safeguarded their priveledge to such a great extent?


JKR
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Joined: Jan 15 2005

Stockholm wrote:

If we had PR in Canada, I think the Liberals would quickly become a small "boutique" party for high educated high income professionals (i.e. Canada's version of the German FDP or "the party of doctors and dentists") and they would consistently get their 30-35 seats from about 10% of the vote and they would become a semi-permanent coalition partner to the Conservatives.

If we had PR in Canada, I think the NDP would quickly become a more roubust supporter of social democratic policies. If not, a new left party would fill that role and the NDP would be a more centrist-left party. Maybe Topp, Nash, Mulcair, and Saganash, would all lead different centre-left and left parties and form a coalition government that would produce the kinds of social democratic policies we see in places like Sweden?


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Don't get me wrong. I support moving to a system of PR. But I also think we are being delusional if we assume for one second that when push comes to shove - the Liberal Party will EVER put the NDP in power when all of their Bay St. masters will read them the riot act and demand that they prop up the Tories.

Proportional representation is a better system on principle - but we should not make the mistake of assuming that it will result in "more progressive" government. New Zealand has MMP and right now they have a rightwing coalition in power.


dacckon
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Joined: May 19 2011

The policies in Scandinavia occured not due to PR but mostly due to the post-war concensus where a new spirit filled the people of Europe. Many, many majority governments by social democrats. Little, little interference by liberals.


TheArchitect
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Joined: Sep 15 2011

Three Nova Scotia MLAs, including one cabinet minister, have endorsed Peggy Nash today.  These are Lunenburg MLA Pam Birdsall, Queens MLA Vicki Conrad, and Dartmouth South—Portland Valley MLA Marilyn More, who holds several portfolios, including Labour, Advanced Education and Immigration in the Dexter Government.

http://peggynash.ca/2012/nova-scotia-mlas-back-peggy-nash-for-ndp-leader...


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Several countries in Europe like Germany and the netherlands developed very advanced welfare states post-war despite having Christian Democrat as opposed to social democrat governments. Bismark created the first public health care system in Germany and he is regarded as a rightwinger


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

This is the essence of my name. If you look outside Canada to the broader community of democracies... you'll notice that there aren't very many right-wing parties who would dare campaign on dismantling health care. The consensus is the best economy is a mixed economy: public models for necessities, and private models for wealth-creation, with lots of shades in between.

A big part of forcing a government to represent that social democratic middle is a more proportional voting system. It's not just about electing full-on socialist parties to government. It's also about forcing the so-called centrist parties towards the true political center, representing the broad base of working people.

I would rather a Liberal party that has to compete with the NDP in the actual popular vote and form a coalitiion, rather than an NDP that obliterates and replaces the Liberal party on the center-right.


dacckon
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Joined: May 19 2011

I thought Willy Brant had the title of building the welfare state in Germany.

 

But then again, I am not a history book and recalling things from memory. So do correct me and educate me on these matters Laughing Better to be proven wrong than to remain ignorant.

 

Edit: Christian democrats are way different than North American conservatives. They do lean right, but they have a heart. Blue tories like the ones we have here are much different. I would call the Christian Democrats in Europe as centrist.


JKR
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Joined: Jan 15 2005

Stockholm wrote:

Don't get me wrong. I support moving to a system of PR. But I also think we are being delusional if we assume for one second that when push comes to shove - the Liberal Party will EVER put the NDP in power when all of their Bay St. masters will read them the riot act and demand that they prop up the Tories.

Wouldn't that mean that the only way for the NDP to obtain power is through winning an outright majority?

If the Liberals don't prop up an NDP government if given the chance, they will likely lose a lot of their support and condemn themselves to oblivion as they will win hardly any seats if they go under 15%.

If the 2015 election doesn't produce a majority, the post-election negotiating will be fascinating. In such a case, electoral reform may likely be the biggest negotiating chip as it was in the UK after their recent election that produced a minority. Hopefully the Liberals would be smarter than the Liberal Democrats were and not sell their souls in order to get a referendum on electoral reform that is doomed to failure because it is associated with a party that's sold out their supporters who mostly detested the Conservatives. In retrospect, the Liberal Democrats should have made a deal with Labour, especially since Labour agreed to implement AV immediately and have a referendum on PR. As it's turned out, the Liberal Democrats are likely going to head into oblivion after the 2015 election and will have nothing to show for their deal with the Conservatives. If the Liberals are smart, if they find themselves in the same poisition as the LD's found themselves in, they'll agree to prop up the NDP in exchange for implementing PR as PR would insure the Liberal's long term survival, albeit in a smaller role than they're used to.


Gaian
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Joined: Aug 5 2011
dacckon wrote:

I thought Willy Brant had the title of building the welfare state in Germany.

 

But then again, I am not a history book and recalling things from memory. So do correct me and educate me on these matters Laughing Better to be proven wrong than to remain ignorant.

 

Edit: Christian democrats are way different than North American conservatives. They do lean right, but they have a heart. Blue tories like the ones we have here are much different. I would call the Christian Democrats in Europe as centrist.

Bismark brought the gathering of statistics that allowed the gathering of precise knowledge about the demographics/needs of the old principalities that he'd gathered together and presented to a Kaiser. But he also believed in using that knowledge for social control, so that he could say in paternalistic confidence, that the public should not be informed about state secrets any more than about the contents of their sausages. :)

Stockholm
Online
Joined: Sep 29 2002

JKR wrote:
In retrospect, the Liberal Democrats should have made a deal with Labour, especially since Labour agreed to implement AV immediately and have a referendum on PR. As it's turned out, the Liberal Democrats are likely going to head into oblivion after the 2015 election and will have nothing to show for their deal with the Conservatives. If the Liberals are smart, if they find themselves in the same poisition as the LD's found themselves in, they'll agree to prop up the NDP in exchange for implementing PR as PR would insure the Liberal's long term survival, albeit in a smaller role than they're used to.

Of course one of the reasons the LDs couldn't support Labour was that they didn't have enough seats to give Labour a majority...they would have needed support from Ulster Unionists and Scottish and Welsh Nationalists to have something like a three seat majority! Also, Gordon Brown was by all accounts a miserable guy who was impossible to deal with...its news to me that Labour ever offered AV with no referendum.

I still think that unless the NDP wins a majority - the Liberals will be forced by their corporate benefactors to keep the Tories in power. Throughout canadian history - when Liberals have to choose between the NDP and the Conservatives - they ALWAYS ally themselves with Conservatives. They only cooperate with the NDP when they are the party that will be in the drivers seat.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

The NDP had the best ever election results last election running against the Liberals as well as the Cons. Why in the world would we want to change direction now? Answer: The NDP doesn't want to change direction in that area.


vaudree
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Joined: Sep 7 2001

Idealistic Prag ... agree with your sense of beauty (bottom previous thread). Arthur, second that about JeffWells's post #9.

Re Statistics: 29% and 27% seem to me, without looking at the numbers, to be within the margin of error.

Hope the Quebec debate is on CPAC so that I can watch it. The Scottish translator is my friend, though I have never met the guy.

If someone can youtube the NDP debate comments on Newt and Mitt - tell me and I'll help spread it around.

JKR wrote:
As it is under FPTP, the "social democratic" NDP can't easily call for raising taxes on the top 1%. Saganash's question to Topp was very revealing. Is Topp playing into the hands of the Conservative attack machine by mentioning tax increases on the very wealthy?

Commented on this at the bottom of the previous thread. Saganash was basically suggesting ways of getting money off the 1% without opening oneself to the usual right-wing spin campaign when one goes after income tax (because the middle class pays income tax). Some of this was closing loopholes that allow the 1% to pay less income tax than they are officially supposed to be paying and some of it was going after/creating other taxes that the middle class don't/wouldn't pay. Saganash's method also went after corporate taxes.

If Saganash's method can get as much money off of the 1% as he was hinting, I think that we should try it. Also, it may be prudent to spend the first 4 year term staffing off the loopholes and off shore what you call thems before going after income tax on the 1% in the second term. Saganash and Topp are basically arguing over what to do the first term in office.

It is something that should be looked into.

 


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

I wish people knew how to understand polls, instead of just repeating them. A poll isn't a prediction. It's a snapshot of where things are now. That means that numbers can be depressed or inflated, depending on circumstances. Right now they're blatantly depressed: a caretaker interim leader, no election on the horizon, a dull leadership race, and our heavyweights spending too much time outside parliament. All things that will change soon and instantly improve.

I fully admit that the polls show that Mulcair would help us bounce back substantially. The thing that the polls can't show is what would happen if we picked another leader who goes from relatively unknown to our official spokesperson. Nearly any of the candidates would outperform Turmel. They'd start getting at least SOME of the coverage that's somehow been annointed to Bob Rae.  Plus, having some of those MPs back in Parliament would take some spotlight away from the Liberals, and turn up the pressure on the Conservatives.

And most of all, there IS someone who would make a great leader, but hasn't been introduced to the Canadian people yet. Our job as NDP supporters isn't to look at a narrow snapshot of what's going on now and just roll with the polls, but to look at someone's actual political acumen and reputation and see if they could win hearts and minds, given the chance. The answer could be Mulcair, but it could easily be someone else.


doofy
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Joined: Nov 11 2011

Social democrat--

What evidence will you use to determine which candidate would be able to consolidate the NDP gains in QC?

Remember that jack layton developed a real "capital de sympathie" way before May 2nd. It was reflected by his constant presence on QC "pop culture" shows like Infoman, Laflaque, and TLMEP.  It was also reflected in the polls; the NDP was at 20% in QC before the 2011 campagin even started, the highest level of support since the 1980s. There seemed to be clear potential there. Do you have evidence that any of the candidates, other than Mulcair,  have similar potential?

Specifically w/ regards to poll:

I  agree that polls are snapshots, but polling trends are important. W/ Layton, the NDP was trending up in QC from the moment he became leader. The NDP is now tredning down and that trend might accelerate if we pick a leader who does not ALREADY have a real connection w/ QCers.  The new leader will not have nearly a decade to "run under the radar" and build the kind of magic  Layton ultimately had.


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