babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Support rabble | Advertise with us | Contact our staff | About rabble | Log-in or Register for a new account | Corrections | Privacy policy | Newsfeeds | Mailing lists
rabble: Features | Columnists | In Cahoots | Blogs | Books | Photos | What's Up | Polls
babble: Forum Topics | Active Topics
The rpn: About the RPN | Become a podcaster
rabbleTV: Program Guide | Features | Indie Inside | Best of the net
Copyright © 2001-2013 the authors
Syndicate
Boy oh boy - the Alberta Liberals sure managed to pick a winner thanks to letting "supporters" who were not members vote in their leadership contest (not)
Small L liberals in Alberta have basically taken over the Alberta PC Party so it makes sense that the Big L Alberta Liberal party is losing support. With Redman as the new Premier, in makes sense that cenrists are coalescing with the PC Party.
If the Wildrose Party loses the election it will be interesting to see if right-wingers in Alberta return to the PC Party in order to reclaim their previously dominant role.
It helps that the Liberals brand across Canada has taken such a hit since May while the "orange" brand is on the upswing. The AB Liberals also picked a loose cannon wing nut Raj Sherman as their leader and that is accelerating the decline...plus Alison Redford is attractive to a lot of small "l" liberal types. I don't see rightwingers going back to the PCs if they win the election. If the PCs win - the Redford wing of the party will be in total control and the government will be as "red Tory" as they come. I think that unless Wildrose gets wiped out - they will become a new rightwing opposition to the PCs while the NDP opposes from the left. The Liberals will die.
In fairness to Sherman, the Liberal decline was evident before he became leader. In fact, it's likely the reason David Swann resigned as leader in the first place, even before he contested a single election.
However, the claims from his supporters that he would blow a fresh wind into the party sails were always overblown. He may yet surprise in the campaign, but the evidence picked up from the doorsteps suggests he is a weight on their progress.
The voting method certainly helped elect him. Sherman spent money robo-calling the province picking up supporters and registering them instantly. Had he been required to collect $5 from each of them, I suspect MLA Hugh MacDonald would be Liberal Leader today.
Of course, there was nothing preventing MacDonald or other 'real' Liberals from doing the same thing. Frankly, if MacDonald or Blakeman had not avoided running for the leadership in 2008, the party might not be in their current mess today. The roots of the Liberal demise (if it does come about) trace back to years and years of poor strategic decisions, and not a small amount of bad luck.
Daveberta says the Liberals have nominated 28/87 candidates. An election call is expected in weeks. Several Liberal incumbents are retiring. I don't know what the state is of the party's election debt.
They are in deep, deep, deep trouble.
Where is Debater when we need him?
Is the expectation that Redford will give a throne speech and then seek a writ for an election?
ETA: Ironically (given the layout of vote splits), it is in the NDP's interest to help the PCs undermine the WRA, in the hopes that the NDP can become the official opposition.
Well, Peter Lougheed was almost certainly to the left of Alison Redford, and after 1975, was able to command overwhelming support from Albertans across the political spectrum. After the decimation of the Socred remnants in the '75 election, right-wing opposition to Lougheed never amounted to more than a tiny handful of seats(four at the most) scattered between a succession of small parties.
So even in the event of Wildrose picking up a respectable showing of seats, I wouldn't rule out right-wing voters eventually just shrugging their shoulders and getting on side with the winning team. Outside of Edmonton, and especially in the rural areas, Albertans tend not to divide their vote for very long.
Caveat that Lougheed was governing during a generally more left-wing era, so it's hard to make absolute ideological comparisons between then and now.
Abingdon Research
PC: 37.9
Wildrose: 29.4
NDP: 14.4
Lib: 13.7
Other: 4.5
The NDP result has been at 13% or more in 12 published polls over a one year period. Source.
23,889 completed interviews from Jan. 30 to Feb. 2
Terrible optics for the PCs, masters of the Alberta one-party state.
And Reform Party style chicanery by the WRA.
It's going to be a weird and wild election.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-a...
The Premier of Alberta is staking the province’s fiscal health on surging growth in the oil sands, betting that bitumen royalties will more than double in five years despite uncertainty about energy prices.
Production of oil sands bitumen is set to climb sharply in the coming years, as energy giants spend billions to build new projects and tap the province’s vast reserves. The growing revenue from bitumen royalties will help replace natural gas revenue, and support the government’s expanded spending while warding off new taxes.
On line survey, who will you vote for in the provincial election?
Fourm Research:
PC: 37
Wildrose: 30
Lib: 14
NDP: 13
I can't remember a time with so many polls in Alberta politics.
The Alberta NDP doesn't seem to have much traction. I wonder if any of that will change once the campaign starts.
They had 8% in the last election so the polls indicate they will almost double their support and probably overtake the Liberals as the opposition to the PCs on the left.
Still, it's a far cry from the Alberta NDP's numbers in the late 1980s. With the NDP ascendant virtually everywhere else, it's hard not to feel grumpy.
Keep in mind that the NDP is currently a marginal party in Alberta while the dominant narrative focuses around the PC-Wildrose battle, so of course the NDP is going to get squeezed in between elections. We saw federally that once a campaign actually heats up and people pay attention, anything is possible.
Personally, I think it's remarkable that NDP support has nearly doubled in spite of these setbacks. Greater days are ahead.
Think HQ Public Affairs
PC: 42
Wildrose: 29
NDP: 13
Lib: 12
Alberta: 2
Difference from their last poll in September:
PC (+2), Wildrose (+5), NDP (-3), Lib (-2), Alberta (-1)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012
Stumbled across the endorsement page for Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge West, and was very pleasantly surprised to see Leeroy Stagger as one of her endorsers. I absolutely love the song of his called, "Where I Live," which talks about issues like environmental destruction, challenges people have in making ends meet, income inequality and unemployment, and popular alienation from the political process. She sounds like a stellar candidate, any Lethbridgers care to weigh in on her chances of being elected?
And the first campaign gaffe goes to the Wildrose, for their bus design:
Yes, quite.
So that's why she leans to the right.
Has the writ actually been dropped yet?
(by the way, I've always wondered...when they "drop the writ", does somebody have to go back and pick it up, or to they order a new one?)
If they have, when is election day?
I wonder what Gary Goodyear would think of that one.
It was rumoured to set everyone a twiter.
The Wildrose "hubcap" gaffe made "Jimmy Kimmel" live(the late night talk show on ABC)here in the States tonight.
BTW...any theories as to why they haven't just gone ahead and called the damn election yet?
It has to be within three months...so what have the PC's got to gain at this point by stalling?
Nothing's gonna change that much between now and whenever pollling day actually is.
Ken - Redford's crew quite arrogantly assumed they would perform so well in the spring session of the Legislature, their polling numbers would improve. As a result, Redford publicly and repeatedly promised to pass the budget before calling an election.
It didn't work out that way.
The budget will pass today. I expect her to call the election on Monday.
Albertans will go to the polls to elect the next provincial government on April 23, Premier Alison Redford announced Monday.
The writ was issued around 10 a.m. MT when Redford visited Lt.-Gov. Donald Ethell in his office at the Alberta legislature.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/03/26/edmonton-alberta...
The Alberta NDP struggles for media coverage and I don't think these issues are enough of a wedge to get the NDP noticed. On improved health care, Premier Redford has the health care inquiry that she can point to. There have also been increases in funding over the years. On improved education, Redford has the Education Act that seeks to ban the teaching of homophobia in government sponsored classrooms. She has successfully painted it as being held up by members of the WRA and is facing a battle with social conservatives who are switching their allegiances. Lower electricity prices is not a top-of-mind issue, but makes an okay second-tier platform item. The problem with this one though, is that Albertans know they have lower energy prices than the rest of the country in other areas like gasoline and natural gas. A tougher approach to polluters is one of those things that many Alberta voters support in theory, but don't vote for in practice. Given a choice between economic opportunity and the environment, most Albertans cast a vote for economic opportunity especially if environmental damage can be kept more out of sight and out of mind (i.e. no pulp mill @ Kananaskis). Those voters that do vote environment are the tiny collection of Liberals, NDP, and Alberta Party (and any supporters of the defunct Alberta Greens). Evenso, one has to wonder whether the environment is "the" ballot question for these (or the vast majority of) Alberta voters. Lastly, getting more royalty revenue from energy companies is a really old issue. It does not seem to be a present issue in this election and there are many strategic reasons why it lacks the ring of a winner for the Alberta NDP. For one, among economic conservatives it is known (because of the recent deficits) that Alberta is rather dependent for a rather large chunk of its revenues, on these resource royalties. When the oil patch slows down, the loss of royalties from decreased production and loss of income & consumption taxes from employment, lead to deficit scenarios. What's more, when the oil patch slows, the political instinct is more often to NOT raise royalty revenues so as not to jeopardise any form of recovery in production in the oil patch. In fact, the pressure often runs the other way: cut royalties slightly so that production rebounds.
Yes, I know there is Kevin Taft's new book, but who reads that? Are the arguments all that new and if they aren't that new, why haven't they caught on? I just don't see this issue as a winner right now. It has been argued over and over, the NDP has ocassionally used it to score some points but never some wins and that is more present to the voter: the sense that this debate has been had before and that it has reached some conclusions, not irrevocable, but I don't sense any major appetite to relive the old debates.
I hope Brian Mason comes out with better wedges. I'm more than a little concerned.