babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Support rabble | Advertise with us | Contact our staff | About rabble | Log-in or Register for a new account | Corrections | Privacy policy | Newsfeeds | Mailing lists
rabble: Features | Columnists | In Cahoots | Blogs | Books | Photos | What's Up | Polls
babble: Forum Topics | Active Topics
The rpn: About the RPN | Become a podcaster
rabbleTV: Program Guide | Features | Indie Inside | Best of the net
Copyright © 2001-2013 the authors
Syndicate
Can someone update me on the Danforth byelection situation now that it has been called?
Looks like Stephen Harper is setting the byelection date for March 12, and Conservatives and some of the press are calling it for the Liberals.
Historically it has been a Liberal district, before Layton.
I don't ee any of the press "calling it for the Liberals" on the contrary the press have been tweeting that they thing its about 95% chance of staying NDP. The only one "calling it" for the Liberals is a clearly mischievous Tory press release that is obviously just trying to play mind games with the Liberals (and to some extent with the NDP). One thing the Tories know for sure is that they have so little support in TD that they will have a hard time keping ahead of the Green Party - so why not stir things up with absurd spin.
I'm not sure where you get that idea from. Toronto-Danforth in its various incarnations was a Tory stronghold from Confederation to 1963, then it went Liberal in '63, then it went NDP in 1965, 1968, 1972 and 1974, then it stayed NDP in a byelection with Rae in 1978 then it went NDP in 1978 and 1980, then it stayed NDP in a 1982 byelection and in the 1984 general election. Then Dennis Mills won it in 1988 and 1993 and 1997 and 2000 - then Jack Layton won it for the NDP in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2011. Provincially the Danforth riding has been consistently NDP for the past 40-odd years!
I think that the important point is that Toronto-Danforth will be decided two weeks before the Leadership.
If the NDP win, then they go into the Leadership on a high.
However, if the NDP lose Toronto-Danforth, then all the momentum would be gone and there won't be time to get it back before the leadership race.
This puts even more pressure on the NDP to win this seat.
And the Tories could care less whether it is a Tory or a Liberal who wins if they want to deflate the NDP.
Who is running against Craig Scott anyway?
Yes, it's had a varied history, although it's basically an NDP-Liberal riding now. The fact that it was Conservative in its early days over half a century ago is no longer relevant since many ridings in Toronto were right-wing then. The entire demographics and composition of Toronto was very different until a couple of decades ago when the city become more left-wing. There was a time when Toronto was considered a Conservative stronghold! Those days are over.
Maybe Dennis "More Catholic Than The Pope" Mills will try to make a comeback.
Except provincially, where it went CCF in 1943 and 1948, as did next-door Woodbine, which Ken Bryden won back in 1959, no small feat; a man who should not be forgotten (and died only ten years ago):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Bryden
Toronto Danforth has basically been NDP for as long as i have been alive - except for an interregnum in the 90s which was a highly unusual period when the federal NDP was in single digits nationally and the Liberals were winning virtually every single seat in Ontario.
As I predicted on the other thread, I'm expecting it to go NDP.
The reason the Conservatives are predicting it will go Liberal is old Machiavellian Harper up to his old tricks again. He wants to portray it as a Liberal riding so that when the Liberals likely don't win it he can then portray it as evidence of Liberal problems etc.
Last year I think Jack carried every poll:
Thank you for that, Wilf. Someone came into the officelast Spring talking about having campaigned for Marion Bryden. To my great embarrassment, I had to admit my ignorance
Apparently due to some bureaucratic foul-up in the PMO, the byelection will be one week later on march 19 instead of March 12...probably doesn't really matter in the overall scheme of things...assuming that the NDP wins easily (which i expect), it will be a good way to start the week of the leadership convention!
Darn those arrogant (would be) moderators. This thread: better dead than read.
Best of luck Craig Scott - Make Jack proud!
Indeed Craig, best of luck to you and your team.
The NDP will probably win.
The interesting part will be to see how the popular vote shakes down. If the Liberals go up in the popular vote from last year, it may indicate a recovery in the GTA. Will also be interesting to see whether the Conservatives are able to improve on their popular vote, or whether they have declined since last year.
Might also be interesting to see whether the Green Party is still alive and whether it can get a few percentage points.
Is there any chance the Cons will tell their voters to vote Liberal in order to try to embarrass the NDP by defeating them since they are now the larger opposition party?
I doubt it. The Liberal Party raised more money than the NDP in the fourth quarter of last year, so they're still a force to be reckoned with.
Winning a by-election is symbolic though, and could affect the ndp momentum. I could totally picture that happening as they love dirty tricks, just look at the history of SGI.
There is so little Tory support in Toronto-Danforth in the first place that there are virtually no voters for them to "instruct". There is nothing there!
Boy the Danforth byelection is turning into more of a Liberal trainwreck every day!
Now itseems that anti-abortion freaks are staging a hostile takeover of the riding association...btw: its interesting to note that the anti-abortion guy trying to get the Liberal nomination ran twice for the Green Party....so much for Elizabeth May's "quality control"
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/liberals-fear-pro-l...
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1129106--liberals-pick-newcomer-gran...
Grant Gordon doesn't even have a Wikipedia page yet. But his partner does:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gill_Deacon
But Grant Gordon isn't even the candidate in Toronto-Danforth. Interim Leader Bob Rae is:
assessment: rae poster is great for them; candidate poster's list of qualifications almost makes me laugh up against our candidate.
OMG, ... co-founder of the Toronto Bridge Club. He's running for the Senate, right?
To think tha the liberals described Craig Scott as "lackluster"!! He's a Rhodes Scholar and co-author of the South African constitution and the Liberals run the founder of the Toronto Bridge Club?? I wonder if he plays "Blackwood Conventio"?
I'm going to steal that!
Just when you thought Andrew Lang couldn't stir the pot any longer, look who pops up. Ah, Liberals: the blood feuds never disappoint.