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Word on the "Liberal" street is that Karen Mock wants the seat.
ok, apparently its now the 19th?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2012/02/by-election...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-lagging-in-by-elec...
“I think people feel that this riding is a NDP stronghold, but you know what, it was actually a Jack Layton riding,” said Carolyn Bennett, Liberal MP for the Toronto riding St. Paul’s. “We’re going to mount a tremendous platform to get it back. It’s very important for us as we continue to rebuild our party.”
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Really? Nice spin. looks like federally out of the last 32 years, 16 were NDP, 16 Liberal, and since the Provincial boundaries were aligned to be the same as the Federal, the entire 12 years since 1999 have been NDP, and Ward 30 in the southern half of the riding, has been held by variously by Layton, Tabuns, and now Paula Fletcher since 2003. Looks to me like the depth of NDP support goes considerably beyond Jack. might want to brush up on your riding research there Carolyn.
and what is with this business of "taking back" the riding? all the Lib candidates for the area have used it since 2004 when Mills was ousted. Word to the Liberals...you never "owned" this riding any more than the NDP does now. Whomever is chosen by the eligible voters of Toronto-Danforth has the privilige and honour to represent us, not own us. I've always felt that this says more about the LIberal attitude to the area than anything else.
note to T-D voters...the Liberal candidates at both provincial and federal levels have supported various projects that the neighbourhood has rejected, like the Smart Centres' plan on Lakeshore (WalMart) and the Portlands Energy Centre (which was a provincial fait-accompli, and outright mocked and dismissed local opposition), and still not clarified, the massive power line corridor that will be needed to fullfill the provincial Liberals' nuclear power plan/ambitions.
Who??? Her claim to fame is as a leader of B'nai B'rith and TD is something like 2% Jewish (and most of them are probably NOT the kind of Jews who are into BB's pro-Likud stances).
If the Liberals think they can make a play for TD by running a parachute from Thornhill whose biggest claim to fame is being an pologist for the Netanyahu gov't - they are even more screwed up as a party than i thought!
But I and others have already topsy-turveyed that argument; you see, you may think it was once a Liberal stronghold, but you know what, it was actually a Dennis Mills riding...
"Administrative error?" Or someone finally noticed that March 12 was during March Break, when some higher-income (Liberal) voters will be away? Harper is trying to help the Liberals?
Sounds like the Liberals are in disarray and will probably come a distant third when the votes are tabulated.
I agree this riding used to be Liberal AND it was Bob Rae's riding 30 years ago...for those reasons I think that the Liberals have to be considered HEAVY favourites in Toronto-Danforth. This byelection should be a slam dunk for the Liberals. They should be able to run a yellow dog in TD and win. If the Liberals can't win Toronto-Danforth then they cannot win anywhere. Toronto-Danforth = Do or doe for the Liberals
well, i for one am feeling very positive! about the Liberal chances in the riding. If past performance is any indication of a trend, they should be able to beat Lang's 18% by a long shot, and score a solid 12-15%! ;-)
I'll be surprised if their vote percent isn't up from 2011. They have a strong candidate, we no longer have Jack, there will be no argument for tactical voting, and by-elections usually have a lower turnout. What will be interesting is, will their raw vote total even go up? It might. Which, a week before the leadership vote, would be a reminder to everyone that non-partisan and green voters may be skeptical that the NDP will actually do anything about proportional representation, and if our new leader is less vehement about it than Jack was, they may not vote NDP next time. The Green vote across Canada fell from 937,613 in 2008 to 572,095 in 2011, most of which switched to the NDP, partly to stop Harper, partly because of NDP policy on PR.
Wilf, i think you are giving people who voted Green in '08 who drifted away in '11 FAR too much credit. Do you think most of those people even know what proprtional representation is??? I think that the Green party peaked in 2008 because it was a fashionable "flavour of the month" that year and because environmental issues were close to the top of the public policy agenda and all the talk about "green shifts" and green this and green that...In 2011 the Green party was out of the news, environmental issues had dropped like a stone as an issue of concern and suddenly the NDP was the new "flavour of the month".
Contrary to popular belief - the Greens actually tend to do very badly in byelections. In all the federal byelections held between 2008 and 2011 - Green support was in low single digits and in BC the provincial Greens have tended to have such derisory byelection results that the BC Greens are not even running candidates in the upcoming provincial byelections and Jane Sterk is whining that its too challenging for a third party to get its message a across in a byelection (compared to what??)
If the Greens *do* overachieve in T-D, it'll be more as a Calgary-esque dead cat bounce.
Liberal ‘no-names’ seek nomination to run in former Jack Layton riding
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/07/liberal-no-names-seek-nomination...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-fear-pro-lifers-tr...
"...Some federal Liberals fear single-issue pro-lifers are trying to hijack their weakened party.
Their fears have been stoked by the apparent re-emergence of a group calling itself Liberals for Life, which is promoting Trifon Haitas's bid to represent the party in a March 19 by-election in Toronto-Danforth..."
looks like the Liberals are in for a bit of troubled water.
It's like when you forget to keep a domain name active. Malicious squatters move in :P
Can we please talk about the things that actually matter?
Like, how is the sign war going?
For a party hoping to prove that it is still an efficient, well-oiled machine, the Grits are certainly slow to the game in Toronto-Danforth.
Sign war - I live in a moderate NDP pocket north of the Danforth, near Greenwood and saw probably 20 NDP signs and 1 Green in my evening stroll.
edit- signs
Closing for length