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NDP Leadership #94
February 13, 2012 - 9:10pm
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Would anyone like to predict how many threads we are going to have on the leadership race before voting day? lol
Didn't we do that guessing game earlier? I think it went as high as 300. OMG!!!
Thread #93 lasted less than 8 hours. Speaking as someone who's been here almost from the beginning, I'd say this is unprecedented. Well over 300 is not unrealistic.
I have posted this elsewhere as a new forum topic where people can react, but wanted people active here to be sure and see it. Thank-you for your indulgence.
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Wow...with that e-mail the Dewar campaign put out, it almost seems like they are trying to export their Manitoba tactics to the rest of the country. They had to have planned the release of this poll, knowing in advance that Dewar would bomb the French debates and planned on using it as a diversion. Dewar could have taken his lumps from the debate, and like Chisholm shown some dignity and recognize his limitations. Instead, with the wheels falling off their campaign, they pull this stunt trying to take out the Topp campaign while they were at it. It was a slimy tactic and reeks of scorched earth politics. I have zero respect left for the man or his campaign.
But to top it all off, they have the audacity to send out this e-mail to all the members (I assume that they have the full lists). The e-mail, while not explicit, was very low-brow in my opinion. To wit:
WTF!!! What the hell is this but a veiled threat to all of the staff in the Party? Choose me, or you'll lose your jobs: absolutely despicable! And the tacit implication that other camps are conspiring to purge members from the Party? I can't fathom it. This is so not what the NDP is about, and I wouldn't want to even be a member of a Party that condones this sort of thing.
As an activist in the Party (not staff), I have the luxury of being open with my allegiances, a luxury all too many people in my province do not have. The stifling fear that people here in Manitoba have of coming out "against" Dewar has harmed our Party, and I believe also the democratic process in general.
I had some hope that this was just a Manitoba tactic and that the Dewar camp was not engaging in the same thing in the rest of the country, but this e-mail makes me unsure.
To all my fellow Manitobans who are not supporting Dewar (from all camps), I extend the invite to "come out of the closet": this man is not going to be leader, nor should he be. You are free to vote your conscience.
that's a pretty clever move - basically following up on the implication that dewar is the best establishment candidate to take on mulcair (who that remark was directed toward). so they release the poll timed to change the subject from his anticipated poor performance in the french debate, and then push the poll in all these different ways. a pretty smart way of using those limited dollars to maximum effect. too bad their strategy is wasted defending such a poor candidate.
Ironic that the Dewar campaign's attempt to make their candidate part of the "big three" may ultimately result in his downfall.
Yeah, and I guess Topp was just collateral damage. He was one of two (three if you count Niki) who did well in the Québec debates. Had the results of those debates had time to percolate, there is no way that Topp would still be that low. Even as a Mulcair supporter who has some criticisms of Topp's campaign, I feel really bad for Topp's campaign right now.
There is no bloody way that Dewar will end up on the last ballot, publishing these internals like this is nothing more than scorched-earth.
One or two babblers took umbrage with the way I described Dewar earlier, so this time I'll moderate my words somewhat: I think Dewar is an arrogant, haughty, self-centered prick.
I know of a number. Also, a number who are normally, deliberately, non-partisan progressives in order to work with people from more than one party. It reminds me of 2003 when quite a few Greens tore up their cards in order to join the NDP to vote for Jack. I just hope they stay with the NDP after Cullen doesn't win.
Dewar has truly lost sight of the shore. I just read his email and the word that comes to mind is despicable. Maybe that is too harsh. So many NDP member readers are not going to get his points because they are too "inside baseball." In fact, I bet most people that read that email will be going, "what is he talking about?"
This was truly poor judgment and I wish the people at his campaign had paused to think before pushing the send button.
Hear hear!
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Polling+shows+three+race+leadership+Dew...
Mulcair - 31.1%
Nash - 17.5%
Topp - 14.8%
Dewar - 14.8%
Cullen - 14.2%
Ashton - 5.3%
Singh - 0.9%
Mulcair's pollster contacted 1,105 party members from Feb. 6-8, which means the poll is accurate to plus or minus 2.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Andrew Coyne make some good points here: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/andrew-coyne-ndp-could-lo...
On moving to the centre:
On Quebec:
[Cross-posted with Howard on the same topic.]
In case it wasnt explicit enough, as FFK noted, that email of Dewar's was 100% directed at taking down Mulcair. Not only that, but I think they must have packed in the top 10 most visceral attaks on Mulcair into one email.
I dont think it's clever. I think its just weird. And I dont mean slimey/weird, I mean just plain weird.
So weird that I can't figure it out enough to suggest that its a sign of desperation. It looks that way, but I think its just as likely to be a product of bubble thinking gone wild and gone way too cutsey.
Notice that some people thought it was an attack on both Mulcair and Topp. Many will find it some language they aren't familiar with.
The one guess I think is safe is that a LOT of their second place votes are behind Mulcair... likely much more so than other camapigns. But what an idotic way to go about trying to turn some of those. And it might be dumb to even try to turn Mulcair choices. Makes more sense to chase after all the second and third choice votes. Even if a lot of your present second choices are behind Mulcair, its still more feasible to round up enough of the rest so that Mulcair cannot grow enough through the ballots to win.
Who knows what cleverness they had in mind. Whatever it is, I doubt they get the results they were looking for.
For those that didn't receive Dewar's email. Alice Funke of punditsguide.ca has posted it in full here.
Alice referrs to the text as a pitch being made to Topp supporters. I put this on her blog:
"But a lot of us think that narrative of veiled negative contrasts to another candidate[s] is entirely directed at Mulcair. If you know different, then the campaign badly missed its mark on this one, even with the most engaged members."
Be interesting what others have to say. But whatever is 'correct' (?), I think its testimony to the mystifying nature of the diatribe.
I'm glad to know Andrew Coyne believes the NDP's true identity is 'harmless ornament'. On a similar note, why do women feel the need to get elected when we can influence the real decision-makers with our feminine wiles?
You know what will have an impact? Seeing my party's principles & values enshrined in law when we're the government. But thanks for the pat on the head, Andrew! :)
NR: Your numbers are wrong according to the Vancouver Sun. According to them, these were Mulcair's internals:
Mulcair 31.1
Nash 17.5
Topp 14.8
Cullen 14.2
Dewar 13.8
Ashton 5.3
Singh 0.9
******** Interesting that they show DEWAR in fifth!!! ********
Temagant - welcome indeed!
i don't think this is fair. i think he's a good man who doesn't quite realize what changed and why during the last election. he's not qualified to be leader and i think the vast majority of us here realize that he'd be worse for our electoral prospects than turmel, but i don't think any of us could doubt that he sincerely believes that he could be a decent leader.
also, i think the last person a new democrat should take advice from is andrew coyne, even ezra levant would offer more legit advice, as at least he wants a strong ndp to take out the liberals.
I agree totally. Dewar is more than a decent person.
Campaigning is a very weird mindset. They just seem to be a little more isolated than most campaigns get.
Actually nicky, I think Alice is right, and that I missed something:
The anti-Mulcair swipes are directed at Topp supporters:
1.] Topp's support is too low to have a shot at winning.
2.] We know you dont like that weasel Mulcair, so come over to Dewar to stop him.
Lets see now, if I didnt get it without some big hints....
You could say that this proves me and Stockholm wrong- there IS an anyone but Mulcair campaign.
But in our defense, how could Stock and I know that there are such idiots loose at the top of one of the campaigns?
Of all the ridiculous over reactions in these threads, the reaction to Paul Dewar's email has to take the cake. "Despicable'. What a joke.
What's that? Oh it's the Fonz calling- he wants his leather jacket back as he is about to line up his bike with the ramp.
I'm not supporting him, not supporting anyone at this point with Romeo out, but lets have a wee little bit of perspective here folks.
Wow, how nice of Andrew Coyne to finally provide us New Democrats with some excellent advice on how to win the next election. And here I always pegged him for a Tory (or an anti-worker business Liberal at best)! How wrong I was!
Rene Levesque said after he was elected in 1976 "Everyone take a valium".
They same thing needs to be said here concerning some absurd comments about Dewar's campaign.
More vitrol on Dewar's campaign for daring to speak, for daring to conduct a poll, for daring to frame a poll, etc.! If he was a member of a visable minority, I'm sure there would have some intervention by now. None-the-less, his campaign continues to thrive beyond the vacumm of the babbleverse.
What is it about "uppity white men" that babblers can't stand anyway - and do they know sarcasm when they see it?
I think there are clearly some well organized campaign "volunteers" on this board and elsewhere. And they are welcome to spin to their hearts content, the members will speak in their own voice with time.
I predict an early ballot exit for Topp and unfortunately Cullen, while Singh and Ashston appear to be ready for a pre-ballot deal for early exits.
Why do I like Dewar in the final three against Nash and Mulcair? He is the guy that is working the hardest!
Dewar has vision, passion and energy to spare. He connects well with regular folk and that will be key to success in future federal NDP governments.
Coyne's condescending attitude aside, I agree with his point on not abandoning party values is accurate, as most conservative pundits tend to believe that the party has to move to the centre to be relevant.