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NDP memberships
February 21, 2012 - 6:38pm
New
Discussion of NDP membership figures and their implications should not get buried in Leadership Thread #mega
NDP memberships per capita
Province; NDP members; 2011 census pop.; members per 1,000 residents
Sask.; 11,264; 1,033,381; 10.90
Man.; 12,056; 1,208,268; 9.98
B. C.; 38,735; 4,400,057; 8.80
Terr; 924; 107,265; 8.61
N.S.; 3,844; 921,727; 4.17
Ont.; 36,760; 12,851,821; 2.86
Alta.; 10,249; 3,645,257; 2.81
N.L.; 1,030; 514,536; 2.00
P.E.I.; 268; 140,204; 1.91
Que.; 12,266; 7,903,001; 1.55
N. B.; 955; 751,171; 1.27
The NDP is still a western party, plus Nova Scotia. (Who knew?)
The unions' memberships drives, to the extent that they were in Ontario, have not achieved their full potential.
Quebec is not great, and yet it's at 54% of Ontario levels. Pretty good. And Alberta is right on Ontario's heels. Terrific!
Next: memberships per NDP vote.
Sweet!!!
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/21/ndp-memberships-up-750-in-quebec...
Terr. 924; 10,973; 84.2 Sask. 11,264; 147,214; 76.5 B. C. 38,735; 609,102; 63.6
Alta. 10,249; 234,730; 43.7 N.S. 3,844; 136,620; 28.1
Ont. 36,760; 1,417,435; 25.9 P.E.I. 268; 12,135; 22.1
N.L. 1,030; 70,868; 14.5
N.B. 955; 115,830; 8.2 Que. 12,266; 1,630,865; 7.5
Gold star for Alberta, compared with Nova Scotia and Ontario, eh?
Now here we see the real challenge in Quebec.
The way the NS NDP has always been, shouldnt take too long for Quebec to overtake us in members per voters, and thats even with such a huge proportion of the province voting NDP.
This is really respectable for half a year's work.
I hope there can be an ongoing drive, even just a trickle.
Also, the BQ would have had access to all the contact lists from the PQ and from people who were working on the Yes side in the '95 referendum etc...the NDP has to build membership in Quebec totally from scratch with no provincial allies
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Yaffe+wields+sized+influence+leadershi...
Are the Con and Lib membership numbers that bad they are afraid to release them?
What are their membership stats?
http://www.torontosun.com/2012/02/21/ndp-boasts-nearly-130000-voters-for...
Its worth noting that in the Liberal leadership race in '06, Ignatieff, Rae, Dion and Kennedy each spent well over $2 million! Compare this to the NDP contest where there is a $500,000 spending limit. I think that when Harper won the Tory leadership against Stronach and Clement they also each spent several million dollars. When you have millions being spent - a lot will go to mass sign-upos of derelicts etc...
And they call themselves fiscally responsible. = P
Percentage swing
Oct 2011 to Feb 2012
Quebec +8
Ontario +2
N.S +1
N.B +0.8
Terr +0.7
N.L +0.6
P.E.I 0
Manitoba -3
Saskatchewan -3
Alberta -4
BC -6
Note for the future.
With all those members Martin Singh has signed up, and a very solid donor list, he is positioned to run a spending limit campaign to secure a seat in the election, without a dime from the party... and able to spend on pre-writ advertising as well, which the Conseravtives will no doubt do wherever Martin chooses to run.
Good job Martin!
I am totally impressed by these membership numbers, all around.
What do you all think, based on your experiences on the ground--how much of the increase was the result of a concerted drive on the part of the candidates and/or the party, and how much of it was people coming to the party of their own accord?
I have quite a bit of experience, and could not hazard a guess what proportion took the initiative to come to the party.
All we know is that even among youger people much more inclined to do it, it is a very small percentage of people who will sign up without a direct ask. So if there a lot of them, and that would appear to be the case, that is impressive.
Mind you, a lot of them have had the pitch at some kind of event, where they are encouraged to go to a website. So not all of those people would be mostly of their own initiative. But getting a lot of those is also impressive in itself. Because the rule is that you put GREAT emphasis at the event on people signing up now, here. Because of that, any very organized drive will soft pedal the options to sign up on your own later. They are so much more likely to do it if you get them now, and you dont want to undermine that by at the outset say 'you can conveniently do this any time.'
At our "kitchen table" events, we actually sold memberships directly (by asking people when they came in if they were members, and if not, if we could sell them one right here, right now). So not all of the pitches at events directed people to the website. I agree that it's quite impressive, though, if people actually did go to the website after getting a pitch that way.
Yes having websites people go to is so much better. Its still best to get people while they are there. But it makes the second chance so much easier.
WAY off topic question- isnt there athread on the US presidential race? I'm here in the USA.
Man. 12,056; 126,639; 95.2
Terr. 924; 10,973; 84.2
Sask. 11,264; 147,214; 76.5
B. C. 38,735; 609,102; 63.6
Alta. 10,249; 234,730; 43.7
N.S. 3,844; 136,620; 28.1
Ont. 36,760; 1,417,435; 25.9
P.E.I. 268; 12,135; 22.1
N.L. 1,030; 70,868; 14.5
N.B. 955; 115,830; 8.2
Que. 12,266; 1,630,865; 7.5 Implications:
If Quebec met the pitiful Ontario standard, they would have over 42,000 members. I'm not suggesting that will be easy. Ontario has been in the 30,000 range for decades, it takes years. The point is, they've only just begun. When someone like Boivin (past-President of the Quebec Section) says we have only two qualified candidates, people should look at this context. Mind you, when Pierre Ducasse says Peggy Nash can do it, I'm in no position to say he's wrong. The Quebec membership will never meet the BC standard because they will likely never become a mass party to the extent that the Bloc is, and that the Ontario NDP is (sadly) not. But it's a sobering thought to see that, by BC standards, Quebec should have over 100,000 members.
One way for Quebec NDP membership to really ramp up will be in the lead-up to the 2015 election when there start to be contested NDP nomination battles in Quebec and potentially some of the weaker sitting MPs challenged by someone for renomination.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/ndp-membership-increase-n...
Hello Wilf, How about a # of MP's per 1000 NDP supporters/voters by province? That might tell a different story
Here is my post from the leadership thread.
The membership numbers turn out to be more informative than I thought they would be, though the whole new members and who do they support thing remains a guessing game at heart. Largely speaking performance of out of province candidates in signing up members is unknown as we jump from region to region.
The Mulcair camp were looking at 20,000 new members for his candidacy in Quebec. The overall numbers, while good, were well short of that, and other candidates signed up Quebec members, including Topp, Ashton, and Nash, so Mulcair must concentrate on existing members across Canada if he wants to win.
New sign-ups in Ontario suggest strength of the party is growing in the largest province. Nash is the leading Ontario candidate. She has excellent labour support, and resides in the GTA where her qualities as a community worker are well recognized. People see her a party leader, she has already been its president after all. Dewar has a great ground game, and is strong in Eastern Ontario. Outsiders doing well ? Every candidate has supporters in Ontario for sure.
The team with the best ground game in BC is not easy to ascertain from the sign-ups. The province has the largest number of members. Singh signed up lots of new members and encouraged renewals. Topp had an early lead, and has not slowed his efforts. Cullen goes from strength to strength, but carries the same weakness with him here as elsewhere with partisans. He is setting the agenda on enviro questions. I am part of the Nash campaign here, and her team is outstanding, young, dynamic and working hard. Peggy is covering the province and she is recognized as the candidate to deal with working class issues. Google Catalyst to see what the province is facing outside the lower mainland.Vancouver Island was home to 10,000 members prior to sign-ups. Nash has great organizing strength on the Island. Its not only vote rich, its members will vote.
The prairies are a mystery to me, though I grew up there, and still consider myself a prairie guy. Edmonton and Calgary? Regina and Saskatoon? Winnipeg and Brandon? Niki will do well in Manitoba, but Dewar has big strength there and with provincial government employees in particular thanks to his brother who is a big player in Man. labour and party circles.
Atlantic Canada? Nash is competitive in N.S and Newfoundland for sure. N.B and PEI still have lots of room to grow. With Robert C. gone from the race, interest may have slacked off compared to elsewhere.
Mulcair is an excellent platform performer and has gained respect as people get to know him. How many people outside Quebec joined the party to vote for him, I have no idea. You can be sure he has support everywhere among existing members. Nobody knows for sure how much support, to state the obvious.
I do know enviros join to vote Nathan, as do riding by riding co-operation people. It seems that young people are going Ashton, and Nash, and youth are joining. Women and labour people are signing up to vote Peggy, but how many are there? Dewar tried a Western strategy and he may have support on the prairies but his French is an obstacle, as is Topps not being poised to take the Danforth seat. A great number of people think a leader from Quebec is necessary for the province to vote NDP again in 2015, and will vote Mulcair on that basis alone.
Conclusion: My guess is that Mulcair must run very strong outside his base to win. Nash must run strong in her base -- distancing Dewar and Topp, as well as Mulcair in Ontario -- in order to win.
Interested in hearing other guesses based on the good news about sign-ups.
If you want an actual idea of the state of the race you can't concentrate on the numbers but the swing since the last polls were released. Unfortunately we don't know what membership numbers were like in early february but you can guess it was a diminished change in the direction of the overall swing from October to now as helpfully posted by Ippurigakko
If the direction of growth was the same from October -->February as it was from January --> February than the candidates in the polls who were doing well in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada will probably see their numbers improve and the candidates who primarily got there numbers from the West may dip. Unfortunately the only indicators as to who was leading where were the hints offered by the Dewar campaign, namely that 1) Mulcair had more than half the Quebec vote. That Peggy was first in Ontario followed closely by Mulcair and Dewar (he said he was tied with Mulcair but it's safe to say they'd only descibe their numbers as "tied" if Mulcair was at least marginally ahead). Cullen was said to be running first in B.C. behind an unidntified candidate (presumably not Dewar himself) with Nash third.
http://www.680news.com/news/national/article/333603--bob-rae-promotes-li...
http://www.680news.com/news/national/article/333603--bob-rae-promotes-liberals-in-quebec-as-ndp-membership-rises-in-province
Give him credit for honesty for admitting that 5,000 number. (Or could it be even lower? Since Apps admitted 80 of their 308 riding associations are dormant, and maybe half of those must be in Quebec, could it be even lower??)
And tin the Free Press today, NDP membership sky rockets as leadership convention nears. I read Rae spoke to a group at a Montreal University of about 80, half of whom the article made a point of noting were members of the University's Young Liberals. He tried to discount the numbers, but given that they supposedly are the established party in Quebec, this was the first in a long time I read something in the MSM and felt goo.
Nice to see the Libs feeling the heat a little. And in the case of the NDP, we are just getting started in Quebec. This is exciting!