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What one can do in a campaign like this...where it's clear you're going to lose, is use it for doing a "dry run" on certain types of campaign tactics, observe what "works" and what doesn't so that you can refine your tactics and use them in campaigns where you do have a chance of winning in future.
The other thing is that you can have some fun while you're doing it because there aren't any real consequences for screwing up.
This is true...but above all - you don't want to embarrass yourself and/or your party. No one expects the Liberals to win in Toronto-Danforth - even though we should not forget that it used to be Bob Rae's seat and it was once a Liberal stronghold - but they could at least put in credible performance and try to improve on their 18% showing in the May election. Instead they are becoming a laughing stalk and an object of ridicule.
Sounds like a good book:
Not a Liberal stronghold. A Dennis Mills stronghold.
Otherwise, you might as well say that *all* of Toronto was once a Liberal stronghold. (Even Trinity-Spadina--ironically more on the back of its Peter Stollery distant-past than Tony Ianno's more recent stint.)
1.) I see no indication he has ANY ideas that work. His idea of an 'idea' is designing a logo that looks like the words Fuck Off. (and he's still riding that one ten years later.)
2.) He's not gonna be run anywhere in the future.
3.) No consequences? Maybe... Maybe the Libs could run a lamprey eel in the riding and still be able to bank on a built in 19% of the vote.
Or maybe they'll get 6% of the vote because their candidate is such an embarrassment, and that WILL have consequences. I can write the article now
"While the NDP was favoured to win the riding, few anticipated the complete collapse of the Liberal vote in this, their former stronghold. Insiders say it is reflective of the continuing disarray within the party in the wake of the last election's historic defeat..."
I'm starting to feel sorry for this guy. All he has to do in life is keep his mouth shut and not be remembered as the weirdest spouse at his wife's office Christmas party.
And now he wont even be able to do that.
How is the sign war shaping up?
I actually spotted the first Tory signs in my neighbourhood yesterday One of them was actually on the lawn of a house that wasn't vacant.
I was thinking that maybe they might be doing another invisible campaign where all they do is put up a website.
Anyway, I wish the hardcore dippers in this thread could just step back a bit and be a little less partisan in their comments. The last time dippers were over confident in this part of town we got stuck with Dennis Mills for fifteen years.
I think in this case, "overconfidence" might mean not NDP loss a la 1988, but NDP under 50% And maybe something even unforeseen such as the Tories in 2nd...
When I first heard of Grant I thought the Libs might actually be onto something: A corporate marketing guy who has done pro-bono communications work for progressive causes.
Not exactly a Rhodes scholar who worked with Nelson Mandela, but someone who could potentially bring the Mills voters back to the Libs.
Except Grant isn't really a corporate guy. His website lists charities he's worked with, and a few corporations involved, It gives no indication of any paying corporate work he ever landed. No links to say... a swiffer ad or a car ad or something. Or anything.
Usually when one does charitible work with corporations, a spin-off is sooner or later some paying business gets thrown your way:
"I appreciate the work you did on the Sick Kids campaign, it means a lot to me as my child was very sick when they were a newborn. How would you like to come in Tuesday to talk about doing some spots for our new lattes we're rolling out?"
or
" Who have you worked with? Virgin and MuchMusic? You don't say. Well, you must have some ability, sure I'll take the meeting."
But there's no indication he was ever able to capitalize on the charitible gigs. This is because his charitible work is, well, ineffectual and embarrassing.
Look up his youtube videos for the campaign. They're just... bad. As in inept. You cant hear what he's saying because they're filmed on windy days outside. And there's no substance to them. In one of his videos Bob Rae gives a really effective pitch on why to vote Liberal. But Grant doesn't get to speak at all. And that's just sad
In other words, he's flicked.
On Saturday and Sunday in TO it was the prov NDP council mtg and they ended early on Saturday so the reps from all the ridings could go to TorDan and canvas - no, I'd say they are not taking the riding for granted - in fact, it's about getting out and knocking on every door and showing strength.
Heavens.
Wrong thread, sorry.
Alert to any electors in Toronto-Danforth. If you shake hands or have any physical contact with the Liberal candidate - you will put yourself at risk of being infested with lice!
THIS THE SAD TRUTH. Voting Liberal gives you lice. It's why Bob Rae's hair turned white. IT'S MOVING!
2x
Actually, I think Gordon is running a pretty smart campaign here in T-D. He's putting up YouTube videos that, yes, are somewhat eccentric, but still get across the idea that he's a nice, ordinary family guy who coaches kids' hockey in the neighbourhood.
His wife posting a blog on his website humanizes him, gives people a peek into their happy homelife, shows he has his family support behind him, he's a "nice guy", etc.
He's gotten attention through his funny and silly flyers. That first one addressing all the different party supporters was hilarious and got him lots of local press. The one about what the Liberals have achieved and the NDP have achieved? Well, as an NDP voter, I don't like it much, especially since they take credit for stuff the NDP had to push them into doing (like, hello, MEDICARE?), but it will probably be effective for swing voters. When you're starting as far behind as he is, you've got to take risks and be bold, and that's what he's doing.
He's basically running in a faint-hope (no-hope?) campaign, and trying all sorts of interesting tactics to see if anything will stick, and trying to get some attention. So, the party has a gigantic billboard that everyone sees when driving or riding their bike east on the Danforth into the riding from the Bloor Street Viaduct bridge with Bob Rae saying, "We want you back" (which I also think is an effective slogan). They have rented an extremely visible campaign office, also the first thing you see when you come into the riding, at the corner of Broadview and Danforth.
I know everyone here is partisan (including me - I'll be voting NDP in the by-election too, since Mulcair won't be leader yet), but I think people aren't giving the competitor's campaign enough credit. In fact, the NDP could probably learn some stuff from it for their own no-hope campaigns.
He won't win. But if he increases the Liberal Party's vote share by a decent margin, they will probably consider that a success in itself, and use some of those campaign tactics in other ridings where they have a better chance.
sorry michelle, while i'm completely ndp partisan, i think you're being overly generous to a very oddball candidate, likely because you are nice person giving the "underdog" the benefit of the doubt. regardless of my affiliation, i want to know what he's done and what he will do for the riding and country as an MP, not weird videos of hockey metaphors by someone who looks like they drank wayyyyy to much coffee, and his spouse's reliance on him to delouse thier kids hair. that's ok if you have put out a serious platform, and would as you say, work to humanise the candidate. but in the absence of that, and in the presence of the very misleading flyer you mentioned, it's just plain weird.
being a federal MP is one of the most serious things a person can do in thier life. I want a candidate with a serious CV, a serious campaign message, and is serious about deliveringing on it. I've yet to get that in 8 years of campaigns from the Liberal camp. only that they want to "take back the riding" for themselves.
as for "we want you back" , i find this messaging from the T-D Liberals to be offensive as i've said before. Toronto-Danfoth wasn't "thiers", the NDP"s, nor is it anyone else's to "get back". Not once in any campaign since 2004 when i became an NDP volunteer, have i seen anything from the Liberal candidate saying what they will do, or have done, to improve or benefit the riding. What they did do though,when Dennis Mills was MP , was eliminate the Toronto Harbour Commission and replace it with the Federal Toronto Port Authority, which instantly started suing the city and refusing to pay it's taxes, not to mention being a plum patronage appointment location for both the Liberals, and now the Conservatives (lisa raitt anyone?), voting against SSM, and getting busted for claiming he secured a building being squatted by OCAP for social housing when he didn't. As for Lang in the last two elections, aside from being a toxic personality (if you've ever met him you'll instantly understand) he supported both the Portlands Energy Centre (a provincial Liberal pet project) and the SmartCentre's big box (one of his publicity people also worked at Media Profile, SmartCentre's pr firm), both of which were opposed by the riding.
why would we want the Liberals "back" ever? so they can wreck my neighbourhood all so they can put another feather in thier tattered hat?
as for the "prominent" office at Broadview and Danforth, it's basically prominent because it's completely boarded up with campaign signs so you can't see in. when i did last week, i counted two computers and three phones, one adult looking person, and three highschool aged kids. looks like a real juggernaut in there! :-P
Well, I'm not nice enough to want the underdog to win, even if I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt... ;)
That's interesting, about the campaign office! That's not what it looks like from the outside, and of course I've never ventured inside nor even peeked - just noticed it when going past it recently in a cab! :)
Anyhow, the point isn't that he's running a high-budget campaign filled with volunteers. The point is that he's NOT, which is why he has to do some oddball things to get attention.
I see your point about the "We want you back" campaign - but I'm sure you also realize that it's not aimed at you. They know they're not getting you "back" because you were never "theirs" to begin with. They want the swing voters "back". They want current Dippers who were formerly Liberals "back". It's supposed to speak to them, not you. :)
I didn't live in the riding when Dennis Mills was in office - in fact, I had just barely moved back to Toronto when Jack won it, so I don't know much about those things you mention. But I've heard from at least one other person who lived in the riding for years that Mills won the riding and held it by being extremely good at constituency work - in fact, even opening up a shadow constituency office before getting elected.
I'm not sure that I've ever met Andrew Lang. I got some "missed you" flyers from him in the last election when they were canvassing, so I never got to judge his personality for myself. And I don't think we attended an all-candidates debate either, come to think of it. We had a Jack sign on our lawn the last time around, and currently we have a ginormous Craig sign. I did manage to meet a canvasser for the Conservative candidate yesterday though! I couldn't believe it - first, that they were bothering to campaign, and secondly, that they'd bother knocking on our door with that huge honking orange sign there. The kid was nice and good natured about it when I told him I wouldn't be supporting the Conservatives.
Didnt know about the billboard. I think it's a good slogan. The campaign office, which I walked by a couple of weeks ago, is definiely prominent.
Of course they'll hope people vote for the brand (Libs/ Bob) rather than the lightweight candidate. One could even get a uniligual anglo elected in a francophone riding in Quebec with such a strategy, non?
So, they're putting an effort in. Let's not let their vote rise.
One other thing that gets to me is the hockey spot. He mentions a kid with an unusual name, who's not a very good player, by name, publicly, in the video, as being a crummy player.
That's shitty judgment. I felt bad for the kid.
Yeah, actually, that bothered me too, the mention of the kid's name - I forgot about that until you mentioned it. It's not like his name was "John" or something. Everyone would know exactly who he was talking about, and that kind of stuff gets around schools too once one kid hears it and passes it along.
These odd balls tactics shouldn't be discounted. They get Hedy Fry elected in Vancouver Centre and certainly didn't hurt Keith Martin in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. They don't injure Rob Anders in Calgary. Kevin Lamoureux's McDonald's hour is not a problem for him. Denis Coderre has not lost office despite his unflattering guignol on Laflaque. They helped Myron Thompson in Wildrose and Deborah Grey to become the first Alliance MP. Elsie Wayne dominated Saint John. In short, real characters can win real elections. They get people's attention and if quirks are not negatives and the other stuff is positives, it gets people elected.
As for Grant Gordon, I think his greatest flaw (tactic wise) is talking about being losers. Most voters hate a loser. The Liberals use to run whole campaigns on being "winners." It's damn tough spot to be in. Anyways, Grant is succeeding in getting noticed, and as an ad exec, he knows that's much of the battle, especially in a race the media (and others) want to ignore because the result is so dialed in.
Another place the result was supposed to be dialed in= Winnipeg North. Don't let this guy get anymore attention.
Needs a sound guy ;)
Craig Scott has a professional-looking video.
You forgot the most obvious/immediate example of all: Dennis Mills.
But as Lloyd Bentsen would say, Grant Gordon's no Dennis Mills.
Hey, we just found a flyer dropped by the Conservative candidate when we got home from Labour Council tonight. It's a total attack on - get this - Bob Rae!
So weird. Do they think the Liberals are in the lead here or something?
Very, very strange.
radiorahim's conspiracy theory is that the Cons want the NDP to win this riding. But I have no idea why they would want that.
The Cons don't expect to win Danforth but they want to get as many votes as possible. They presumably seek to attract some centrist voters who will choose between voting Con and Lib. Voters who switched from the Libs to the Cons gave the Cons their majority in 2011. The Cons need to keep these "Blue Liberal" voters and would like to gain some more. Running against Rae seems like a good strategy. The by-election is a chance to field test anti-Rae messaging.
The CPC would also squeal with delight if the Liberals finished 3rd in Toronto Danforth, because it would be embarassing and the CPC competes with the Liberals in the 905.
The Tories were actually only a couple of percentage points behind the liberals in the may election in T-D - its not inconceivable that they could come in second.