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NDP Leadership # 113

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Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I wonder if anyone to placing bets ala Vegas on who wins the leadership.

DSloth
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Joined: Apr 26 2011

Brachina wrote:
I wonder if anyone to placing bets ala Vegas on who wins the leadership.

 

If I was disinterested and I had to bet a $1,000 on who would win and I had to pick one candidate, I'd go with Mulcair.  If however the bet was whether or not Mulcair would win I'd probably go against.

 

My odds would probably look something like this:

Mulcair 40%

Nash 25%

Cullen 10%

Topp 10%

Dewar 8%

Ashton 6%

Singh 1%

 


DSloth
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Joined: Apr 26 2011

Oh, but Mulcair's odds are certainly helped by the Party adding another 1,721 members in Quebec.


flight from kamakura
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Joined: Nov 24 2006

maybe, i don't know though.  it seems to me that if mulcair wins, it'll be because - like jack - he has deep support across the country.

and i'm just really impressed by the bc numbers, wowwo:

Electoral roll per province:  

AB - 9800
BC - 39859
MB - 11,991
NB - 946
NL - 974
NS - 3904
NT - 124
NU - 24 
ON - 36,965
PEI - 262
QC -  13,987
SK - 11,243
YK - 747


DSloth
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Joined: Apr 26 2011

Oh to be sure Mulcair cannot win on the votes of Quebecers alone and he would not be the frontrunner right now if he wasn't also doing very well coast-to-coast, but it's an open secret that he's cleaning up in Quebec.  The larger the share of the pie that Quebec represents the better for his campaign.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
DSloth wrote:

Brachina wrote:
I wonder if anyone to placing bets ala Vegas on who wins the leadership.

 

If I was disinterested and I had to bet a $1,000 on who would win and I had to pick one candidate, I'd go with Mulcair.  If however the bet was whether or not Mulcair would win I'd probably go against.

 

My odds would probably look something like this:

Mulcair 40%

Nash 25%

Cullen 10%

Topp 10%

Dewar 8%

Ashton 6%

Singh 1%

 

I'd have 60% Mulcair, 10% Nash, 10% Topp, 10% Cullen, 8% Ashton, and 2% Singh, and 0% odds for dewar.

josh
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Joined: Aug 5 2002

What does Thomas Mulcair want to do with the NDP? http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/27/what-does-thomas-mulcair-want-to-do-w... "He wants to make the NDP into a party of the centre, not the left. " That's exactly what many of us have been saying all along. Thanks for the link!

socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Got a call from a robopoll. They wanted to know if I was a member, my gender, and my top three choices. Traced the number to a call center.

Judging by the level of media coverage, I'm guessing that people are just *starting* to pay attention now. There's a huge number of undecided voters, and there's time for only one or two last big plays before people go with a "default" option.


DSloth
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Joined: Apr 26 2011

josh wrote:
 That's exactly what many of us have been saying all along. Thanks for the link!

You're awful quick to accept the opinion of a Liberal spinmeister. 


AnonymousMouse
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Joined: Sep 19 2011
josh wrote:

What does Thomas Mulcair want to do with the NDP? http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/27/what-does-thomas-mulcair-want-to-do-w... "He wants to make the NDP into a party of the centre, not the left. " That's exactly what many of us have been saying all along. Thanks for the link!
You realize you're quoting a Liberal hack who has repeatedly claimed that Mulcair would destroy/betray the party in a clear attempt to convince New Democrats not to elect the candidate, Mulcair, who he obviously thinks would be best for the NDP, right?

doofy
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Joined: Nov 11 2011

Well the Conservatives must be scared of Mulcair...

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1139549--tim-harper-...

It begs the question: how stupid to they think we are?

Seems like Mulcair refused to commute to Ottawa and make less than $150000. Yet, he agreed to work as NDP QC lieutenant (did the NDP pay him more than $150 000 from party coffers?!), travel the province, commute to Ottawa, e.t.c... All the while, he had no guarantee of being elected. Only Conservatives could make this up.


Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

AnonymousMouse wrote:
josh wrote:

 

What does Thomas Mulcair want to do with the NDP? http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/27/what-does-thomas-mulcair-want-to-do-w... "He wants to make the NDP into a party of the centre, not the left. " That's exactly what many of us have been saying all along. Thanks for the link!

You realize you're quoting a Liberal hack who has repeatedly claimed that Mulcair would destroy/betray the party in a clear attempt to convince New Democrats not to elect the candidate, Mulcair, who he obviously thinks would be best for the NDP, right?

Robert Silver may be a Liberal hack, but he's basically correct.  Mulcair is using pretty much the same language that Third Way modernizers have used in the past, but somehow...Mulcair doesn't really mean it, he's just trying to fool the voters with more centrist language and then will govern on the left.  Besides Silver has a good reason to fear Mulcair, as he's trying to compete for the same space as the LPC, except the NDP "brand" is much less tainted than the Liberal one.


josh
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Joined: Aug 5 2002
DSloth wrote:

josh wrote:
 That's exactly what many of us have been saying all along. Thanks for the link!

You're awful quick to accept the opinion of a Liberal spinmeister. 

Hey, it wasn't my link. I'm just quoting from it.

Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

doofy wrote:

Well the Conservatives must be scared of Mulcair...

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1139549--tim-harper-...

It begs the question: how stupid to they think we are?

Seems like Mulcair refused to commute to Ottawa and make less than $150000. Yet, he agreed to work as NDP QC lieutenant (did the NDP pay him more than $150 000 from party coffers?!), travel the province, commute to Ottawa, e.t.c... All the while, he had no guarantee of being elected. Only Conservatives could make this up.

That is a good retort...I agree that it seems curious that the Tories would be trying to undermine Mulcair now, rather than waiting until after he wins the leadership.


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

doofy wrote:

Well the Conservatives must be scared of Mulcair...

You all really not to stop congratulating your candidate, or yourselves, that the Cons do any of this stuff because they particularly want to get Mulcair.

They'll throw all the muck they can find. It sticks on us, they aren't fussy about where in particular.

ETA: They do it now because its a distraction: at least for coverage and public observation of the race; and if they are lucky, stirs the pot inside the NDP. And if they wait till after and Mulcair does not win, it has no value to them. While if he wins and they do it now, they can do it lots more in the future. Also, when you circulate stuff like this, they never know what else of benefit to them it may turn up that they did not know about.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Lord Palmerston wrote:
Robert Silver may be a Liberal hack, but he's basically correct.  Mulcair is using pretty much the same language that Third Way modernizers have used in the past, but somehow...Mulcair doesn't really mean it, he's just trying to fool the voters with more centrist language and then will govern on the left.  Besides Silver has a good reason to fear Mulcair, as he's trying to compete for the same space as the LPC, except the NDP "brand" is much less tainted than the Liberal one.

I wouldn't trust a pundit. They're always wrong. Especially Liberal ones.

But even he says that's not his read on the election:

And then he claims he has no idea what Mulcair would change about the party to appeal to centrist voters. I think that's pretty much everyone on Babble.

The truth is we already changed the policy of the party under Jack, maybe earlier. Who was the last New Democrat to call for nationalizing industry? What candidate wants to go further than trade reform, to outright withdrawal from NAFTA?

It's easy to point to how Mulcair's policies would be different from the CCF's policies, but then I could constrast Saint Tommy with any of the current candidates. I'm still waiting for one of the Mulcair critics to point to a real policy difference between the candidates.

Other than Topp's/Cullen's tax policy, a gaping void on Palestine's UN bid , and an argument about the voting status of affiliated members that was already settled a few years ago, we have nothing.

 


AnonymousMouse
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Joined: Sep 19 2011
Lord Palmerston wrote:

AnonymousMouse wrote:
josh wrote:

 

What does Thomas Mulcair want to do with the NDP? http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/27/what-does-thomas-mulcair-want-to-do-w... "He wants to make the NDP into a party of the centre, not the left. " That's exactly what many of us have been saying all along. Thanks for the link!

You realize you're quoting a Liberal hack who has repeatedly claimed that Mulcair would destroy/betray the party in a clear attempt to convince New Democrats not to elect the candidate, Mulcair, who he obviously thinks would be best for the NDP, right?

Robert Silver may be a Liberal hack, but he's basically correct.  Mulcair is using pretty much the same language that Third Way modernizers have used in the past, but somehow...Mulcair doesn't really mean it, he's just trying to fool the voters with more centrist language and then will govern on the left.  Besides Silver has a good reason to fear Mulcair, as he's trying to compete for the same space as the LPC, except the NDP "brand" is much less tainted than the Liberal one.

That is entirely, factually incorrect. The "Third Way modernizers" such as Clinton and Blair campaign explicitly on making significant changes to their party policy platforms--welfare and the death penalty for Clinton and nationalization for Blair. Mulcair has made clear that in the challenge for the NDP is different--and apparently from what he has said, almost entirely about language. That is why Silver piece repeatedly lies about what Mulcair has said by point words in his mouth and then attaching quotes that were not spoken in that context. Furthermore, your analysis that what Mulcair is proposing would consitutute "trying to fool the voters with more centrist language and then will govern on the left" is dvoid of any evidence. One can make the case that one's policies are perfectly reasonable and responsible without it being a bait and switch. As a third party, the NDP did not focus on making the case that our policies were reasonable and responsible, we focused on differentiating ourselves from the Liberals. That is simply no longer something we need to worry about--the Liberals are no longer our primary opponents.

DSloth
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Joined: Apr 26 2011

KenS wrote:

You all really not to stop congratulating your candidate, or yourselves, that the Cons do any of this stuff because they particularly want to get Mulcair.

Riiight, how many candidates has Harper commented about by name in this race again?


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Mulcair has more stuff lying around to use- either real or made up and plausible. And he's the front runner.

There is less stuff available to throw at Topp- he hasnt been a public figure. And it would have to be juicier to get the same notice as tossing something out about Mulcair.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

Howard
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Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
doofy wrote:

Well the Conservatives must be scared of Mulcair...

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1139549--tim-harper-...

It begs the question: how stupid to they think we are?

Seems like Mulcair refused to commute to Ottawa and make less than $150000. Yet, he agreed to work as NDP QC lieutenant (did the NDP pay him more than $150 000 from party coffers?!), travel the province, commute to Ottawa, e.t.c... All the while, he had no guarantee of being elected. Only Conservatives could make this up.

The accusations make no sense, compare the commute to Ottawa, with commuting across the country to become Prime Minister. Yeah the knives are really are coming out, our foes are getting scared Mulcair is going to win.

KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

I cant get any youtube clips. What is a rough description of that ad about Mulcair?

And does it actually run as an "ad", or just circulate?


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

They aren't afraid of Mulcair. They arent afraid of any of us or our party. They'll attack with whatever they can- and all the better if its the front runner.

Unless they were sure we were headed for a choice that is great for them- which is just a hypothetical possibility- they will attack most whoever is out front.... not the one they least want to see win.... if they even invest a lot of energy in sussing that out in the first place.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Stockholm wrote:

doofy wrote:

Well the Conservatives must be scared of Mulcair...

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1139549--tim-harper-...

It begs the question: how stupid to they think we are?

Seems like Mulcair refused to commute to Ottawa and make less than $150000. Yet, he agreed to work as NDP QC lieutenant (did the NDP pay him more than $150 000 from party coffers?!), travel the province, commute to Ottawa, e.t.c... All the while, he had no guarantee of being elected. Only Conservatives could make this up.

That is a good retort...I agree that it seems curious that the Tories would be trying to undermine Mulcair now, rather than waiting until after he wins the leadership.

This is Mulcair at his most vulnerable, take out now and they have someone lesx threatening to deal with later. Wait till after he wins when he has the full resources of the NDP at his disposal and he doesn't have to hold back anymore more and no amount of advertizing maybe able to save the cons.

Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

Hunky Monkey wrote:
Interesting that whole threads were started on Mulcair donations... but not a single one started on Brian Topp's connections to a Rob Ford money man. Funny, that. I'd start one if I thought anything of it with regard to Topp but I don't.

Yes more evidence that babble is biased against Mulcair supporters.

I've said many times I find Topp's "left turn" to be insincere.  


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Well, the Conservatives at least wont entertain any delusions they could 'take out Mulcair', or even contribute materialy to that.

But it certianly puffs up his supporters.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into "who" the Conservatives are attacking, or say they think we should pick, or we shouldn't pick. No matter what they do -- praising a candidate, criticizing a candidate, linking them to their base, linking them to the center -- it's always to plant seeds of chaos and infighting.

The smartest thing we can do is not take the bait.

Ignore what Conservatives say about the race, and use your own common sense.


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Its an interesting thought project- could a candidate be "taken out" with a sufficiently big scandal

But for me, even hypothetical thought projects require some basis in reality. And it would take something so dirty to take out a candidate that its compelling nature would mean no one would really need to promote it.

All that the stuff of Tim Harper's article amounts to is nuisance chatter. Worth the Conservatives tossing out there because its so effortless- but of marginal tactical value in itself.


DSloth
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Joined: Apr 26 2011

It's actually a very serious accusation, they're explicitly accusing Mulcair of extortion.  Of course the "they" in question are anoymous Conservative muckety mucks so their safe from a libel suit. 


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