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On a different note, I am really distressed by what seems to be going on here in Western Canada. I just can't understand what the hell is happening. How did the roots of Social Democracy give way to parties like the Wild Rose and Saskatchewan Party's? Do people really not remember anything?
Social Credit rules Alberta for 36 years...Wildrose is nothing new. The Saskatchewan Party under Wall looks positively leftist compared to the Sask Liberals under Ross Thatcher
Ross Thatcher, wow.....that's a blast from the past! I hate to admit but I completely forgot about him. My lifetime New Dem dad (blessed be his memory), didn't like him at all,
Yikes!
NDP has gone mainstream
Once we get our leader and more importantly EVERYBODY back working together on the front bench, it will be fun to watch
Regarding the negative BC swing (or rather failure to grow membership as fast as the rest of the country):
BC had massive membership drives leading into the early 2011 leadership race - the signup deadline was sometime in January of that year. All those people remained members until early 2012, at which point anyone who chose not to renew dropped off the roster. I suspect there may have been some membership losses that counterbalanced new signups; another mitigating factor is that many people who could be convinced to sign up were already convinced last year and just renewed. So it's absolutely unsurprising to see BC on the bottom of the swing rankings - their "before" numbers were pumped up considerably.
In contrast, Ontario had their leadership race in 2009 - long enough ago that anyone who joined only to vote in it would not have been counted in October 2011. But with their gains in the fall election around that time, the ONDP was in an excellent position to solicit new memberships post-election.
It's fun to watch now!
Good for Dussault - he may be the youngest MP - but i get the impression that he is a real up and comer!
Count on it. For one thing, the Liberals are not the only ones who spin membership numbers. Its an easy game since you dont have to show. On top of that, the Liberals for the last several years are highly addicted to frequent spin on donor and member numbers.
If I had to guess, I'd say the number is closer to half that, and probably just started on a modest uptick.
Better than average. With 12,266 members, and let's assume the 17 non-NDP ridings have 666 members, that's 11,600 in the 58 NDP-held ridings so the average is 200. The youngest NDP MP is doing just fine. Mind you, he has a university campus and a compact urban riding to work in, which no doubt helped. But these numbers raise the question: how many ridings are under 200? Quite a few, and they are at risk. No time for complacency.
USW members joining NDP in record numbers, union says Support for Brian Topp strong among Steelworkers
Party revised the numbers today:
That's another 1,100 for B.C. and 1 721 for Quebec.
And they'll need it to have a good ground game in every riding. In 2015 the candidates will be chosen by actual constituency associations, which should hopefully bring about some very strong local candidates, even if it's at the cost of not renominating some of the Orange Wave MPs.
The Orange Wave MPs will, by then, have had the chance to prove their mettle. No doubt, the ones that have been doing their jobs, building their EDAs and working their communities will be safe from nominations. I think you're right though that any that are perceived to be lazy or complacent will be ripe for nomination challenges.
That would probably be the case for our ROC MPs too - as government-in-waiting, an NDP nomination has the potential to become somewhat of a hot commodity.
Right. But I could also imagine, for example, Ruth-Ellen Brosseau discovering that her constituency association has located a very promising candidate who actually grew up in the riding and has deep community connections, and who makes a very persuasive case for having the best chance of winning the riding in 2015 for the NDP. Under those circumstances, even if she has been doing her job competently (and I have no reason to doubt she is), I could see her gracefully stepping aside for that candidate.
And really, out of all the dozens of Quebec MPs who were relatively surprised to be elected, I'm sure some of them did not really want to be elected and do not want to be elected again. I know when I did my M.Sc., it was very effective at convincing me not to do a Ph.D. because I really did not jive with that environment.
It would be a very rare developing association- which almost all these in Quebec are- that would be capable of that kind of initiative.