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Give the office a shout. I know in the past they have been at the Fox and the Fiddle on the Danforth or the Estonian House on Broadview.
I'm gonna predict that the MSM line on Monday night will be that the result will be a "setback" for the NDP if Scott falls anywhere at all short of Jack's 2011 vote percentage.
You are right Ken - spin will know no bounds in bashing of the NDP!
I'm positive that Scott WILL fall well short of Jack's vote percentage. It's almost a sure thing. Scott is not the leader of the party and is brand new so doesn't have anywhere near Jack's profile in the riding. And even Jack didn't get 50% of the votes in the election previous to 2011 - he only got about 45% of the vote in 2008.
Gordon is campaigning heavily, and has some hard-hitting, excellent literature at the door. The latest leaflet we've received continues on the theme of his original nomination leaflet where he appeals to voters from every party, in bright primary party colours. Bob Rae has been campaigning heavily with him in this riding as well.
The orange machine is hard at work here, and radiorahim tells me that most of the NDP leadership candidates have shown up to volunteer on the campaign. But the red machine is hard at work here too, and it will make a difference to the outcome. It's a completely different race than 2011.
The number of red signs on our street (a main street) is way, way up from last election, and they're ginormous red signs, not those piddly little ones that no-hope campaigns usually use, so they're pushing really hard here. And I'm seeing red signs on the side streets too, although as RR says, a lot more orange signs overall (including the gigantic one on our tiny little postage-stamp front lawn).
Here's my bold prediction, which of course will be wildly inaccurate because I'm so bad at this:
NDP: 45%
Liberal: 35%
Conservative: 13%
Green: 7%
How much for "Elvis Priestley", though?
That's scary close in terms of the gap you project between the Liberals and the NDP. Such a shame if it happens because Craig Scott is an amazing candidate and Grant Gordon...well I'll be nice.
It is a shame but personally I have no idea why someone would vote for Grant Gordon. We got to make sure to get our vote out.
Agreed!
Keep in mind Peter Tabuns won a plurality of votes back in October, just a few votes shy of 20,000.
There is no doubt the Liberals have put on a stronger fight this time around, but so too have the Cons, whose anti-crime literature is aimed at Rae. I still think Scott could squeak in at 50%+ if they don't rest on their laurels the next couple of days.
...and what if Craig Scott actually manages to match or even exceed Jack Layton's 60% vote last May? What will the spin/reaction be to that?
If Craig Scott loses on Monday, I will blame Ed Broadbent and the civil war he has sought to kick off this Thursday:
That "they're STILL voting for Jack...they don't realize he's dead...no, wait...it's worse than that...Craig Scott is actually ZOMBIE JACK!"
Opinion polls put us way ahead. However, getting your vote out is so importantin byelections.
One opinion poll, at the beginning of the race. A few hours is a long time in politics these days...
Not really sure why that would cause a civil war. Nobody in the NDP is calling for the party to STOP being "left of center"...even those who
self-identify as "moderates".
Oh please, Howard, that is ridiculous. First of all, Craig Scott isn't going to lose. Secondly, if he does, it would be completely and totally ridiculous to blame it on Ed Broadbent. Get real.
You should be happy the by-election is happening before the leadership election, because once Mulcair wins, you'll be losing at least one vote in this riding for as long as he is leader of the party. And you can blame that on Mulcair, not on Broadbent.
(And apparently I'm not the only one. In this poll, they found that support for the NDP in Toronto-Danforth would go down slightly if Mulcair were to win the leadership. And this poll was taken long before Broadbent's comments.)
CFL