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Is that what the Liberals meant by "we're changing," as in, we're changing the written record?
Or is it, "we're changing," sorry you had to see us in this state of undress.
So, can anyone who actually know this riding and its politics provide an informed opinion on what well happen tonight?
The NDP will win. Check out the Ontario threads on this by-election Arthur. Posters, although they do not want to assume anything and so getting out our vote is of prime importance today, are doing predictions on the election results.
I hate predicting, but i'd say this is an NDP win. The riding is very progressive and left wing, esp. in the south in Riverdale and Leslieville (areas thats have in many cases successfully fought off big box stores and huge condo developments, there are many indie business's and artist who live/work there. a mix of young families, LGBTers, old time working class who wont/haven't sold their homes yet, large chinese, greek and south east asian populations as well. The North is largely working class too, much more greek i'd say but i'm more familiar with the south end).
I did a 501 Queen street car ride from end-to-end last week, here is my not so scientific sign war assesment:
- Between Broadview and Jones; i saw on average 5-6 NDP signs down each side street, 2 liberal signs and 2 geen signs, 0 tory signs. From Living in South Riverdale; i find this to be a strong area for the NDP, north of Gerrard is where you find the Liberal vote increase along with income.
- From Jones to Coxwell (i believe that the dividing line) this is where i started to see more Liberal signs, 1 liberal for every 4 NDP signs on average (some streets had more than 2 or three liberals signs but not much more than than, some streets had only NDP signs). My only conjecture here is that more and more "liberals" are buying homes in leslieville as they are being out-priced in Riverdale. some traditional liberal vote might be coming out of the closet too out this way (heading towards the beaches)
My guess is NDP 45-55% LIB 18-25%
It's interesting to see the comments section in the globe and mail. A lot of furious Liberals (or Conservative anti-NDPers). I fully expect Mr. Scott to earn 60+% of the vote, reminding me that the comments section of the globe and mail is not representative of anyone or anything.
Oh, come on, that's funny! Made me laugh.
Based on what I saw "in the field", while pulling the vote today, I would have to say that it will be and NDP win. But I don't believe the margin will be as large as some are expecting. A lot of the voters we were trying to pull had Liberal vote pulllers coming to the door as well. Some were feeling quite overwhelmed by the near constant blitzing that they have been under with constant phone and door knocking. Unfortunately, there may be some pushback and/or apathy caused by overkill on the campaign.
Scott 349........59.9%
Gordon 179.....30%
Conservative 26......4.5%
Polls reportin 5/196
Sorry I fixed the result right away...
we are cross posting...
Lib 476 29.1%
NDP 954 58.2%
Greens and Cons tied 86 votes each for 5.3%
14/196 reporting
NDP .....1162..... 58.7%
Liberal ...573..... 29.0%
Con ......102....... 5.2%
Green ....94....... 4.8%
Polls reportin 17/196
NDP .....1301..... 57.9%
Liberal ...665..... 29.6%
Con ......124....... 5.5%
Green ...105....... 4.7%
Polls reportin 20/196
NDP .....1752..... 58.6%
Liberal ...875..... 29.2%
Con ......164....... 5.5%
Green ...133....... 4.4%
Polls reportin 25/196
How exciting. Live results here. Looks good so far.
NDP .....2196..... 57.8%
Liberal .1137..... 29.9%
Con ......201....... 5.3%
Green ...174....... 4.6%
Polls reporting 31/196
NDP .....3182..... 57.9%
Liberal .1647..... 30.0%
Con ......293....... 5.3%
Green ...257....... 4.7%
Polls reporting 45/196
Does anyone know which polls? Are these all NDP polls? Will it tighten up later? Is this a good result? By how much must they win to convince the MSM the NDP isn't finished?
- dp. I have no idea why.
So far it's a little worse than Jack did but not so much so that it gives the other parties something to crow about.
NDP Craig Scott 4095 58.5%
Liberal Grant Gordon 2,067 29.5%
Conservative Andrew Keyes 374 5.3%
Green PartyAdriana Mugnatto-Hamu 317 4.7%
55/ 196 Polls
Well, 45 out of 196 polls so far. So, it's early, but signs are pointing to a thorough victory by Craig Scott and the NDP.
65 polls now, and still holding.
NDP Craig Scott 5266 58.1%
Liberal Grant Gordon 2,698 29.8%
Conservative Andrew Keyes 480 5.3%
Green PartyAdriana Mugnatto-Hamu 427 4.7%
75/ 196 Polls
NDP .....7025..... 58.1%
Liberal .3600..... 29.8%
Con ......611....... 5.1%
Green ...493....... 4.9%
Polls reporting 91/196
NDP .....7848..... 58.4%
Liberal .3964..... 29.5%
Con ......688....... 5.1%
Green ...663....... 4.9%
Polls reporting 101/196
Catch up with the ongoing discussion here! Closing this thread for length.