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Latest polling thread - started March 21, 2012
March 21, 2012 - 3:05am
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Politically, life is getting sweeter by the minute in BC.
Federal Conservatives trail NDP in BC; provincial Conservatives threaten BCl Liberals: Pollhttp://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Federal-Politics/2012/03/19/Conservative...
Nationally, the persistent Conservative lead in the polls, despite everything, seems to suggest that the cumulative, decade upon decade exposure of the Canadian public to the routine criminality of Conservatives and Liberals alike, on the whole has had a numbing effect on the population. Where one might have previously been convinced by now that a third party would be standing in as the beneficiary of an upheaval revealed through the polling data itself, instead we can plainly see that a stasis has developed, indicative of a general lack of trust that has reached out to encompass the NDP as well. In its wisdom, if we can refer to it as such, the public accurately senses that it is trapped with nowhere to go.
You also have to consider that Conservatives are so entrenched in their ideology that they'll forgive nearly any Conservative crime, as long as it keeps the liberals and socialists from ruining the country.
This number has to be at least 30% out of the 37-38% of their vote. (3/4 I guess.)
what I have found about all the polling from May 2011, is that the NDP has basically remained in the number 2 spot and well above the Liberals. So what does that indicate? To me it suggests that the polling questions do have an impact on how people respond and that people "accept" that the NDP is no. 2. There doesn't appear to be "buyer remorse".
Most people aren't paying attention now. If the NDP were to fall, it would be out of the persistent habit of voting for the Liberals. "Didn't we just have an election? I guess I'd vote Liberal." The fact that we're hanging on is actually an excellent sign. It means we're more than just a blip. We're ready to become a habit. "Didn't we just have an election? I guess I'd vote NDP again."
Environics:
NDP tie Tories in popular support
30/30/20 nationally and leading the Bloc by 4 in Quebec.
April 21, 2011 Environics:
CPC - 39
NDP - 25
LIB - 22
GRN - 7
BQ - 6
Current
CPC - 30 (-9 loss)
NDP - 30 (+5 gains)
LIB - 20 (-2 loss)
GRN - ?? maybe same 7 or one gain to 8?
BQ - 4 (-2 loss)
doing the happy happy dance - so leaderless or perhaps it's the spirit of Jack (the best of all spirits with love, hope & optism) keeping us where we are and the fact we are just plan right on and so Canadian!
It's a bit too early to tell, still being in the first half of this majority mandate and the NDP without a permanent leader. Still, it suggests that the Conservative misdeeds are percolating in the minds of Canadian voters, and this could very well be the beginning of a sustained decline in Conservative support.
oh I sure hope so A24!
The article has the BQ at 30% in Quebec, so that would be 7 or 8% nationally
And that is a very very happy way to go into the convention!
I would hazard that it is more complicated than a straight transfer from the Tories to someone else. I suspect that a lot of our support has bled to the BQ in Québec, but that a lot of Tory support has bled to us in BC and the Prairies. In Ontario and the Maritimes, I would guess that there has been some transfer from the Tories to both the Liberals and us, as well as some additional bleeding from the Liberals to us.
There's a huge undecided portion of the vote between elections. I suspect a lot of them don't really like Harper, but hate anything leftward even more.
Maybe, but a lot of them don't hate us, but are unsure about us.
You're right, Policywonk. I still think in my gut, there are a lot of working class Conservative voters who have at one time voted NDP or considered voting NDP. One example: a lot of people were lured in by Harper promising to cut the GST by 1%. The NDP was going to promise the same, but decided not to, because it wasn't seen as "credible". At least that's what a conversation with a former candidate in my local riding told me.
More mischief from Eric Grenier. Talks about the Environics poll, then interpolates the previous and most recent Crop poll, mixes it all up, and throws out nonsense. How can anyone take that guy seriously? Who is he by the way, some high school student with a pc, blogging from his second story, suburban bungalow bedroom?
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/poll-shows-conservatives-...
The Conservatives may have picked the wrong party to pick-on.
Earlier this week, Stephen Harper's crew released new campaign-style attack ads targeted directly at interim Liberal leader Bob Rae. But according to an Environics Research poll, they should have set their sights on the NDP and, believe it or not, the Bloc Quebecois.
The survey, conducted by phone between March 6 and March 19, claims the Conservatives and NDP are now tied with 30 per cent support among voters.
That's about the same percentage of the popular vote that the NDP earned in the May 2 general election. For the Conservatives, it represents a drop of 10 points.
Pollster Darren Karasiuk says the Conservatives are clearly paying a price for the robocalls affair, plans to increase the qualifying age for Old Age Security, legislation that would give the government information on individual Internet accounts, and increased uncertainty over the costs of new fighter jets.
These issues "haven't been managed particularly well," he told the Globe and Mail.
"And they haven't been managed well in spite of the lack of solid and stable leadership from the NDP or Liberals.
"So there's a disappointment among Canadians — particularly soft Tories — that the promised benefits of a majority haven't materialized."
NDP and Conservatives neck and neck in new national pol
1st ballot victory? It can't be that far off.
Mulcair - 45%
Topp - 6%
Cullen - 2%
Nash - 1%
Dewar - 1%
Cullen - 1%
Ashton - 0%
Singh - 0%
Sondage CROP: Thomas Mulcair règne sans partagehttp://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201203/21/01-45...
À deux jours de l'élection d'un nouveau chef pour le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD), Thomas Mulcair est le choix quasi unanime des Québécois en mesure de se prononcer sur le sujet.
Selon un sondage CROP-Le Soleil-La Presse réalisé par Internet auprès de 1000 répondants entre le 15 et le 19 mars, le député d'Outremont reçoit l'appui de 45 % des Québécois, suivi de Brian Topp avec 6 % des intentions de vote.
Suivent Nathan Cullen à 2 %, Peggy Nash et Paul Dewar à 1% chacun, tandis que Niki Ashton et Martin Singh n'obtiennent aucun soutien.
Il faut noter que 6 % des répondants disent ne soutenir aucun des candidats, tandis que 41% ne savent pas lequel d'entre eux ferait le meilleur chef pour le NPD.
La domination de M. Mulcair est plus évidente encore parmi les électeurs de son parti, où il mène avec 54% des appuis contre 5% à M. Topp, 1% pour M. Dewar et rien pour les autres. Étonnamment, 38% des partisans néo-démocrates n'expriment aucune préférence.
Ces résultats font dire au sondeur Youri Rivest que «sans M. Mulcair, le NPD se retrouve devant une page blanche au Québec». Le nouveau chef retrouve le compteur «à zéro, dit-il, et devra d'abord se faire connaître rapidement des électeurs».
former NDP voters coming back now the gun registry is gone?
A two-story bungalow?
Where's Debater?
Winston, you have probably figured it out, I'm not very smart, lol!
RE: The Angus Reid poll. I suspect the real numbers are probably closer in the noise. I also am convinced we are doing better in Quebec then polls suggest. I don't buy either the Atlantic Canada numbers, or the BC numbers. I don't believe they are accurate. And another thing I notice, you don't hear the MSM saying anything about the NDP seemingly "coming back from the dead in Qubec". After all, that wouldnt' fit the narrative they have been trying to create. Weren't the NDP "dead" in Qubec? I wonder.
Art, I haven't figured it out...I think I'm the "not very smart" one.