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Syndicate
Conservatives Are First in Canada Despite Harper’s Low Momentum
I wouldn't be surprised if Harper takes a walk in the snow and steps down in 2014 to make room for a leader with less political baggage. Resigning would also give Harper the opportunity to make a fortune in the private sector like Mulroney did by stepping down well before he hit 60. Harper's personal wealth is relatively modest, so he may be especially tempted to benefit from being Canada's corporate poster boy.
Four frontrunners for the Conservatives that come to mind are Jim Prentice, Maxime Bernier, Peter McKay, and Bernard Lord.
I think that you're right JKR. There is a good chance Harper will leave to reap the private sector benefits and to avoid the possibility of defeat. That's why we need to focus attacks on the Cons, not just Harper. In the 1980s, the NDP focused their attacks on Bill Bennett and succeeded in driving his poll numbers way down. However, he resigned and the Socreds "recreated" themselves with the Zalm to win the next election. We need to avoid that mistake this time.
Harper may have baggage. But he's been the only guy who could unite the Reformers with the Progressive Conservatives. If you thought the NDP race was divisive, guaranteed the Conservative race would see some really nutty shit going out.
Harper is a Conservative, but he's ruthlessly strategic. The other Conservatives would wear their ideology on their sleeve, and pay a price with at least one part of their coalition, not to mention the country.
That's why it's so important that New Democrats stay united. We can't let bickering take the pressure off the real problem in this country.
No way that Harper would let go of his position before an electoral defeat, unless his party completely collapses and crashes, which is unfortunately unlikely. Harper is arrogant and a control freak, he doesn't trust his MPs and ministers to say anything that hasn't been vetted directly by his office, and you think he would leave before an election and entrust the future of the party to someone else? No way, not until he believes his party has no chance to win at all, then he will pull out, but not before.
As to the Environics poll saying that the voting intentions are tied, I'm afraid I am skeptic. No other poll shows that, most show Conservatives slightly down to 35-37% and the NDP at 29-30%. I think Environics is an outlier.
BTW, how can Canadian pollsters tolerate such high discrepancies in regional vote intentions? According to different polls, either the Conservatives are still way ahead in BC or the NDP has shot up with a strong lead. Don't they understand that when their regional results are so crappy, it puts their entire poll and reputation in a bad light? If you look at Québec, CROP and Léger have carefully crafted their expertise polling Québec, and movements in voting intentions tend to be slow and relatively smooth, they aren't jagged the way polls are in other provinces with strong peaks and quick declines all the time. Why don't Canadian pollsters develop exprtise for every province or region?
New Decima poll:
http://decima.com/sites/default/files/releases/2012/03/22/hd-2012-03-22-en1329.pdf
The Environics poll may not be so much of an outlier.
National
CPC: 31%
NDP: 28
LPC: 24
BQ: 8
GPC: 7
Ontario
CPC: 33
LPC: 30
NDP: 29
Quebec
BQ: 34
NDP: 28
LPC: 21
BC
NDP: 35
CPC: 33
Atlantic
NDP: 34
LPC: 33
CPC: 26
It's good that we're in better striking range across the country. But if the slippage in Quebec is true, we'll lose more seats than we gain.
The good news is we have a few years to build back up.
SD, so many other polls don't bear this out. I don't trust this poll to start off, but even if it is reasonably accurate, I don't believe the Quebec numbers at all.
I think the Quebec numbers are so dependent on what happens today that they're not even worth speculating about right now.
It's nice to see issues polling as well as party support polling. Here's one on the level of public support for government spending cuts.
Most Ontario residents are braced for austerity in Tuesday’s provincial budget but are reluctant to see cuts to investments in infrastructure.
More than half of Ontarians — 56 per cent — are onside with deficit-slashing plans. Roughly half thought that boosting fees for drivers’ licences, drivers’ exams and vehicle registrations was a good idea.
But Ontario residents are not keen to see the elimination of full-day kindergarten classes — 49 per cent think that would be a bad idea, compared with 40 per cent who would like to see it chopped.
At the federal level, 61 per cent of Canadians would like to reduce spending by Ottawa in Thursday’s budget even if it meant reduced services.
But there is also strong support among Canadians — 74 per cent — for expanded government programs to help reduce unemployment, which stands at 7.4 per cent nationwide.
And almost three-quarters of Canadians want Ottawa to temporarily reduce the sales taxes on gasoline to help take the sting out of rising gas prices.
Unsurprisingly, it's all rather confused but I guess that just gives all parties an opportunity.
The poll about the Alberta election also includes a federal vote question - CPC 52%, NDP 18%, Libs 14%...#s like that could mean a second seat in Edmonton
https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/9716...
How the hell can the PCs have more then half the vote of the population? What is wrong with those people? Texas North,thats all I can say. Wait until the oild starts to run out and then watch them cry. Bunch of jerks!
52% is actually a very low number for the CPC in Alberta. They usually poll in the high 60s.
That's just it. It's all those eastern and central Canadians who'd be swimming up to our eyeballs in their oil if it wasn't for the Conservatives protecting their interests.
It can be explained by the fact that 21% of the Wildrose supporters got confused & said "other" for their Federal preference
new forum poll, first post leadership has CPC 35 NDP 35 LPC 19
Well that didn't take long.
Poll: New Democrats riding Mulcair wave
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1153428--poll-new-democrats-riding-mulcair-wave
The New Democrats are riding strong public support, helped by their performance in the Commons and the addition of their new leader, Thomas Mulcair, a new poll shows.
A survey done this week had the NDP tied with the Conservatives in public support at 35 per cent each. Just one in five Canadians — 19 per cent — backed the Liberals, their level of support in the last election.
The NDP are now seen as the most effective opposition, with 40 per cent of those polled endorsing the party’s performance. That’s up from 32 per cent earlier in the month.
At the same time, fewer than 25 per cent see the Liberals as the most effective opposition, down from 30 per cent at the start of the month.
The NDP have the strong support among younger voters, women and those living in the Prairies, British Columbia and Quebec, according to the poll conducted by Forum Research.
Approval ratings for Stephen Harper, Bob Rae and Thomas Mulcair are roughly tied at around 32 per cent. But almost half of those surveyed are still taking stock of Mulcair, who was selected party leader just last weekend.
Still, one-quarter of respondents say the choice of Mulcair as leader makes them more likely to vote NDP, and this includes 23 per cent of Liberal party supporters and about 18 per cent Green Party backers.
Here's some more numbers:
http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/03/28/ndp-leader-mulcair-overshadowing-liberals-rae-on-trust-sincerity-best-prime/30233
Mr. Harper had a moderate lead nationally when voters were asked which of the three leaders they thought would make the best prime minister. Thirty three per cent of respondents nationally favoured Mr. Harper as best choice for prime minister, with Mr. Mulcair at 27 per cent and Mr. Rae at 22 per cent. Seventeen per cent of the respondents said they did not know who they preferred.
In Quebec, where the margin of error was slightly higher because the sample of voter opinion was smaller, 48 per cent of the respondents favoured Mr. Mulcair as prime minister, compared to 17 per cent for Mr. Harper, 18 per cent for Mr. Rae and 17 per cent with no opinion.
It wold be worrisome if there wasn't a bump after the Leadership Convention. It would be nice to know the regional numbers, but it sounds like BC, the Prairies and Quebec are better than Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.
Another new one, from Robbins, has the NDP in the lead 34% / 33% / 26.5%.
http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_893.html
Mulcairmania!
Seriously Debater, where are you?
You went after me time and time again when I said you only were intetested in stirring things up when the Libs were ahead and complaining and threatening me when I said your handle should be gloater. So, how about it, where are you? What do you have to say about these polls?
I'll be the first to admit these polls might mean nothing and that it could change once you guys pick Trudeau as your leader. But you can at least debate us, that is your handle, Debater, right?
So how about it hot shot? Are you realy a debater, or am I right about suggesting you change your moniker?
ETA: You heard it here first, Justin Trudeau will be elected Liberal Leader and the Libs will try to relive 1967 all over again. Take it to the bank!
Anyone have a link to the Forum poll cited by "Hatfield"?
Yeah, a regional breakdown would be nice to see.
Never heard of this Robbins Research before
Go to the forum research website and register and you will be emailed the latest polling results I believe
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1153428--poll-new-de...
I notice, no mention on Huff Post, Some surprise!
The forum regionals are there for you to see if you register.
NDP in first place: BC (43%), Manitoba and Sask (44%), Quebec (40%),Ages 18-34, 45-54, Women
Cons in first ATL (39%-NDP second @34) ON (42% NDP second @30) AB (52% NDP second @31) Ages 35-44, 55-64, 65+ Men
Liberals would be projected to lose almost 1/3 of current seats and are not in first or second place in any demographic or region
Seats according to their model would be Cons 151 NDP 120 Lib 25 GR 1 BQ 11
These are devastating to both Cons and Liberals.