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Stick a fork in the BC Liberals, they're done
March 21, 2012 - 3:17am
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Forecast: John Cummins will be opposition leader when Adrian Dix becomes BC Premier next year
Province marches to Clark’s agendahttp://vancouver.24hrs.ca/Columnists/NewsViewsAttitude/2012/03/19/195235...
For Premier (Christy) Clark to wait so long for political, not practical, reasons is a disgrace.
– Tri-Cities News editorial on Port Moody-Coquitlam byelection delay
It was another week of more big problems for B.C. Premier Christy Clark.
Along with the resignation of disgraced cabinet minister Harry Bloy, it included the controversial attempt by Clark’s new communications director, Sara MacIntyre, to block media from asking questions at a photo opportunity.
The week also saw more questions about the blown $40 million deal with Telus to rename B.C. Place and the reappearance at the Port Moody-Coquitlam campaign office of an ex-B.C. Liberal Party executive member who resigned for bringing a convicted attempted assassin to visit the B.C. Legislature – on a premier’s office ticket.
Perhaps worse still, Victoria sources say B.C. Liberal MLA Joan McIntyre walked out of the legislature’s chamber Thursday literally while Clark was speaking. She was rumoured to be unhappy with the premier’s personal attack on NDP leader Adrian Dix as Clark attempted to defend Bloy.
Can we change this thread title to "Stick a fork in the BC Liberals and also Christy Clark, they're both done!"
Why do these women look remarkedly alike?
Why do these women look remarkedly alike?
and why so suddenly different?
More bad news for Christy.
NDP 42%, leading Liberals by 8%
Libs - 34%
Cons - 17%
Mustel Poll gives NDP 8 point lead over B.C. Liberals http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/BC-Politics/2012/03/27/PollPoints/Looking at the March polls, and Eric Gernier's projections
Justason:
NDP - 45% (58 seats)
BCL - 31% (25 seats)
CON - 14% (1 seat)
GRN - 8%
IND - (1 seat)
Forum:
NDP - 42% (65 seats)
BCL - 24% (13 seats)
CON - 22% (5 seats)
GRN - 10%
IND - (2 seats)
The Liberals falling almost hopelessly behind isn't so much a function of the NDP advancing in the polls (they haven't) as much as the right-wing vote being cleaved almost in two. Not that I'm complaining really.
I still like the Justason numbers, for the particular reason that CON + BCL doesn't even add up to enough votes to beat the NDP :)
In about 4 weeks Christy will receive more bad news as she loses 2 by-elections. Those BC Liberal MLAs who want to have a future in politics need to realize they are on a sinking ship and need to bail out soon, otherwise like Christy they will be done like dinner as well.
Van Dongen’s defection a wake-up call for B.C.'s Premierhttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/gary_mason...
It’s impossible to overstate just how troubled Ms. Clark’s leadership is at the moment. If the defection of an MLA to a party threatening your tenuous grip on power wasn’t bad enough for the Premier, she awoke to new polls Tuesday that again illustrated just how bad things are.
An Angus Reid survey indicated that her approval rating had dropped nine points since last August to a dismal 33 per cent. Among Canadian premiers, only Quebec’s Jean Charest had a worse score. And then later in the morning, a new poll by the Mustel Group confirmed what surveys have been saying for months now: The NDP has a solid (in this case, eight points) lead over the Liberals, and the BC Conservative Party is showing no signs of going away.
This marks the low point of Ms. Clark’s year-long term as Premier.
At the moment, it’s hard to see how she escapes this morass. After capturing the public’s imagination with her obvious charisma and fresh leadership style, a seemingly endless series of gaffes and missteps has eroded much of the support and goodwill she had.
They haven’t all been Ms. Clark’s doing, of course. But enough of them have been to feed questions, both in and outside Liberal ranks, about how good a fit as Premier she actually is.
As Mr. van Dongen exited the Liberals, he announced he had hired a lawyer to do an independent investigation of the Liberal government’s decision to pay the $6-million legal fees of two party insiders convicted in connection with the sale of BC Rail. He’s also getting Roger McConchie to look at Ms. Clark’s own connections to the scandal.
During the six-year-long court case, the Premier’s name surfaced several times in connection with some of the principals involved, most notably Erik Bornmann, who admitted to bribing government officials in exchange for secret information.
A defence lawyer for one of the accused suggested in court that Ms. Clark, a friend of Mr. Bornmann, was the actual leaker of cabinet documents. But the prosecution said after the trial concluded that a police investigation found no evidence of improper conduct on Ms. Clark’s part.
Ms. Clark, meantime, has steadfastly maintained that she did nothing wrong.
Whether this self-funded exploration of Mr. van Dongen’s goes anywhere remains to be seen. But it could end up being another major irritant to the Premier – who would seem to have enough to worry about already.
That Forum poll is old. A newer one has the NDP at 47%, the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 21% and the Greens 9%. This is close to the 2001 election when the Liberals beat the NDP 54% to 22%.
It's an odd way to create gender parity in caucus....
First leaving is Iain Black, then Barry Penner and this week John van Dongen. Harry Bloy has said he won't run again, Randy Hawes talked out loud about not running in the next election and now Kevin Falcon....do I sense a trend here?
Who's next? Any thoughts?
George Aboott is comtemplating whether to run again.
As long as Adrian keeps to the high road and focuses on jobs and the economy the BC NDP will win.
I have been listening to Christy the last couple of days in the News and all she says is don't split the right, or horrors of horrors, BC will have another NDP government. She has zero good stuff to say about her own BC Lib's plans, just fear mongering about the NDP. I hope that is her theme song for the next year, because if it is, the BC Liberals will be lucky to win 5 seats next year.
And that Independent (independent my ass) Contractors Association (run by Christy's buddy Phil Hockstein) may as well stop wasting their money and cancel their anti-Adrian ads, as every time another one of their really stupid ads comes on, Adrian goes up in the polls.
yes, a 'trend'.... why the "fork" image is apt... a pattern-forming line-up of tines.... one (or more) pea(s) to a point!
although, I guess a skewer would also adequately serve... haha!
"keeps to the high road"... oh, right... "the high road"... and his Sky Train tickets handy, too....
http://www.timescolonist.com/leader+caught+SkyTrain+without+ticket/63574...
Yea that was kinda unfortunate mistake, that's for sure.
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Talk about closing the barn door after the animals have fled.
After Defection, Libs Close Ranks
Premier Clark emerges to blame van Dongen for strengthening NDP chances.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2012/03/28/Liberal-Defection/
Oh please, that could happen to anyone. If people who drive to work had to buy a little paper each time they left the house, i'm sure some of them would forget about it once in a while, too. He's hardly the arch-scammer the liberals would like to make him out to be; considering many of their illegal antics, if this is the worst dirt they can come up with, they don't have a chance.
Kash Heed comtemplating what he should do as well - Christy should be so lucky. They deserve each other.
just caught myself up on what's going down in the bc there, very interesting stuff. it seems to me that if these two by-elections on the 19th go the way that many are predicting, with the ndp and cpbc picking those seats up, the bc liberals may be in a death spiral of negative media coverage for the next few months, prompting an even greater sense of turmoil. i love it. in this television broadcast, their 'expert' predicted that if the election were held tomorrow, the ndp would win 75 or 85 seats, which seems an astonishing number.
i've also noticed that virtually every single phrase that christy clark utters contains some sort of reference to the lpbc as the 'free enterprise' party, which is a crazy tactic that i hope gets dismissed by the media.
let's bring our man topp in there for the mop-up.
In regards to Dix's SkyTrain fine - Gregor Robertson got one too and it didn't stop him from getting elected again.
Fully in agreement with you, BUT, while answering to 'ticketgate', when interviewed by local media, Dix's voice actually wavered, rather guiltily - I thought he sounded awfully vulnerable - and my immediate response, upon hearing that, was, "what? laugh it off, Adrian! It's kinda funny!" - y'know, I can see the headlines, ablaze, with: Future Premier Nabbed Riding Ticketless! Off With His Freeloading Head! ...
but then of course I realized WHY the hint of shakiness in his voice, in light of such a pathetic little faux pas - indeed, the crumbling Liberals have been tearing him apart in spot attack-ads, of late, for his having actually forged a memo! while serving under Glenn Clark, way back when - no small thing that! ... it did get him fired!... and I think he's sensitive to having all that rehashed... and now this!
and I can't say I blame him, given his (and his party's) recent meteoric rise toward the top job - I mean, let's face it: their imminent control of government is certainly not due to their sparkling record! as much as it is to the Lib's dreadfully dismal one....
So, like, he'll get over it, but I'll wager that he wears his next SkyTrain pass laminated, on a little lanyard, and hung, handily, around his neck, for the next several months.... both day and night... just sayin'....
Though I realize projection isn't accurate. I thought I'd kill some time and do it anyways. I'm not aware of any BC Election Forecaster tool like this one: http://esm.ubc.ca/BC09/forecast.php
But... seeing as the 2005 and 2009 election results were broadly similar you can make a few vote migration assumptions. So, best case scenario by using the Forum poll:
The NDP at 47.9%, with 10% of the Green vote and 10% of the Liberal vote would get 82 seats. 71 of these would be safe (victory of 10% points or more) 11 would be marginal (victory of 10% points or less). They're also competitive (i.e. less than 10 points away) in West Vancouver-Capilano and Vancouver Quilchena (though I think hell would freeze over before they won either). The only seat they're not competitive in based on a strict vote movement prediction is Delta South.
The Liberals at 22.9%, loosing half their vote, with 10% going to the NDP and 40% going to the Conservatives (i.e. 'Other'). They would win 2 seats, both being marginal (West Vancouver Capilano and Vancouver Quilchena). They'd also be competitive in Surrey Cloverdale, Peace River North, Richmond Steveston, Fort-Langley Aldergrove, Abbotsford South (!), Abbotsford West, Surrey-White Rock and North Vancouver-Seymour.
'Others' i.e. the Conservatives (and minor parties and Independents) at 21.8% would only win one seat (Vicki Huntington). The Conservatives would be within striking distance in Vernon-Monashee, Peace River North, Kelowna-Lake Country, West Vancouver Capilano, Vancouver Quilchena and Surrey-White Rock. Considering that they got 20% in Boundary Similkameen in 2009, though this doesn't show up on the forecaster, they ought to be competitive there too. It's hard to say if Bob Simpson in Cariboo North would be competitive or not. I suspect a lot of that would depend on whether or not the NDP ran against him and what sort of effort they put into it, in addition to his local popularity.
The Greens would be at 7.3% and unlikely to be competitive in any seats.
So a realistic seat summary based on this poll is something along the lines of:
NDP 71-84.
Liberals 0-10.
Conservatives 0-7.
Independents 1-2.
Greens 0.
Eric Gernier analysed the Forum and Mustel polls on threehundredeight.com
Mustel
NDP - 42% (49 seats)
BCL - 34% (32 seats)
CON - 17% (3 seats)
GRN - 6%
IND - (1 seat)
NDP - 47% (76 seats)
CON - 21% (4 seats)
BCL - 21% (3 seats)
GRN - 8%
IND - (2 seats)
Mustel has a much longer and better track record of polling BC than Forum does, and with the corporate money backing the Liberals, I would think they *should* be able win more than 4 seats. In the event of real collapse in Liberal support, I could easily see the Conservative picking up more than 8 seats scattered around so-conservative-you-can-call-it-Alberta parts of the Interior.
Mustel has a longer track record in BC, but Forum's record overall isn't bad nor is Mustel's always accurate. Anyways, it's more fun to imagine a reverse 2001 than a simple victory.
Anyways, the funny thing about these projections is that mine was almost literally from the back of a napkin. Considering how similar Grenier's supposed "modeled" projection based on Forum is to my simple projection, it kind of sheds light on how seriously one ought to take these models. I'd lean more towards Forum simply because Clark's government has been such a shit show and the Mustel poll implies that it would be relatively easy for them to win next year, but yeah I'd be surprised if they couldn't win four seats and I'd be shocked if the Conservatives were actually tied with the Liberals right now (though I think it could happen considering the trajectory of this government).
As for the corporate money having an effect, yeah I'm sure they'll ramp up their efforts. But a credible Conservative option complicates things. Also, the NDP was last in power in 2001 - that was a long time ago, so the average person hearing about "the 90s" and seeing the present is going to be more influnced by arguments about the present than "the 90s."
So this is how I see the effect of corporate money going. On the one hand they'll want to hedge and see which option (Liberal or Conservative) has momentum (thus where they ought to throw their money). On the other hand, Clark's shrill calls for the "free enterprise vote" (I know vintage is in, but I didn't know the USSR was making a comeback too!) combined with their economic mismanagement (Telus!) and Dix's image (or at least his ability to strengthen the NDP's traditionally poor image on the economy) really undermines the urgent need for the right to coalesce to give the Liberals a fighting chance. Additionally, seeing as the Conservatives are untested they're bound to have a lot of cranks, wierdos and twits running from them. They will make a lot of gaffes, which will undermine the emergence of a clear cut centre-right option. Frankly, considering how bad Clark seems to be at controlling her own party and government, which just undermines her claim to being a strong / new leader, I don't see the Liberals making themselves a more formidable opponent in the next year.
I know, I know, you shouldn't count the votes before they're in but I think we're headed towards a blow out. I wasn't very politically aware until the late 90s, but the one thing I really remember was that anything you'd hear about the NDP government was how incompetent it was. It strikes me how similar the environment around the Liberals is to how the environment around the NDP in the 90s was.
If this does become a "reverse 2001", I wonder who will become the "Jenny Kwan and Joy MacPhail of the Liberals" :P
If the BC Liberals lose both by-elections on April 19, which I think is a definite possibility, and the NDP hopefully will win Pt Moody and perhaps even Chilliwack-Hope (both former Lib seats), I think you will see many more of the rats depart Christy's sinking ship. My biggest concern if that happens the BC business community will either depose Christy in a palace coup, or completely switch their allegiance to the Cons. Having these 2 right-wing parties is a bit of a joke because both the Cons and the Libs represent the same thing. But the political situation has never ever looked so promising for the NDP here in BC.
yeah, i think the best result is probably that the ndp wins one by-election and the cpbc wins the other. the ndp coming up the middle to win a very conservative seat would only serve to galvanize right-wing support, seems to me that it's better if the right-wingers remain unaware of the full extent of the ndp threat.
I think they already know it
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Superb article in the BC section of today's Globe and Mail by Justine Hunter entitled:
"Keeping B.C. Liberals Afloat"
Unfortunately I cannot find it online - cany anyone else do so and post it's URL here - thanks.
True, but then again in the 1975, 1979, 1983 and 1986 BC elections there was almost total polarization between the NDP and Social Credit (which was for all intents and purposes a previous incarnation of the BC Conservatives culturallly what with all their used car dealers, Bible thumpers and owners of trailer parks as candidates etc...). During those years the BC Liberals won zero seats and were in single digits. It could happen again.