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This poll comes before what may well be a nasty polarizing budget.
Post budget it is possible if opinion becomes polarized the Cons could go up slightly but the Liberals, GRs and BQ all go down with the NDP taking first place.
If these numbers were to be sustained my guess is that the Federal Liberal party would almost completely vanish in the next election-- they are in this poll six points behind the NDP in Ontario at 24%. The Liberals highest polling is 25% in Atlantic Canada where they are still 9 points below the NDP. In the West they range from 12%-14% in this poll and only 15% in Quebec.
All that said the Liberals will have a convention. If it goes well they could recover a little-- if it goes badly they could be kissing single digits in the polls. They will have to find a way to convince Canadians that they are still relevant. I can't even imagine how they could begin to do that.
Sean, great comment! And with apologies, maybe we'll finally be able to get rid of Lamoureux here in Manitoba!
By the way, those Prairie numbers are great, and Alberta wow. How many seats would that be federally if the numbers held, and why are the Tories beginning to fall apparently in Alberta?
Oh-- income levels are also interesting in the Forum poll.
Again Liberals in 3rd in every level.
NDP 1st below $40k; and first $60k-100k and close second $40k-60k and $100k+
Lowest support for NDP is at $100k plus where it is *only* 31% to Conservative 35%
Fair does not mean excellent, very good or even good!
Harper government doing a 'fair' job on economy: pollhttp://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120329/harper-poll-econ...
The Alberta numbers reflect both a drop for the Liberals and a drop for the Cons that is why the NDP shoots up. The Cons are only down about 10%-- thing is so are the Liberals.
Alberta has always looked more monolithic than it actually is.
Very biased reporting -- they are saying most fair to good because 40% say fair.
But numbers really mean 70% say fair to poor and 70% say fair to good.
Really what it means is that Canadians are split on performance of government with the biggest group choosing fair rather than good or poor. CTV is playing political games with the headline.
Article states most Canadians say fair to good but headline is more accurate...
The NDP at 31% in Alberta seems not really credible. Be nice if that were the provincial NDP figure though, given the split on the right.
The Robbin numbers (NDP 34%/Cons 33%/ Libs 26.5%) would likely produce a NDP minority government as the Cons tend to win by massive margins in the Prairies (especially Alberta) making their vote conversion to seats inefficient in the one region they lead in.
Call me a debbie downer, but I find this one really hard to believe.
It very well could be credible-- the NDP has been around 20% in Alberta before with the Liberals around 20% and the Cons at 60%. This poll suggests half of Liberal support has gone to NDP and the Cons are near their lower range (they range about 50-70% in Alberta).
That said the sample is very low.
The Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers compared to the last federal election have the Cons down 12% The NDP up 12 and Liberals in the same place...
The Alberta poll compared to last eleciton has Cons down 15% the NDP up 14% Liberals up 4% and Greens down 2%
What we could see is a Prairie reaction to the whole robo-call/election dirty tricks stuff. Together with the sleeping Anders (from Alberta).
Yes, I think the Cons could finally be wearing some of their crap.
The problem I have with the poll is the sample size and skepticism with polls in general not that ny of these numbers cannot be explained easily.
Well we always see slanted polls towards the cons that turn out to be lies and very rarely polls that slant towards the NDP, but when they do.... which usually turn out to be true.
Between robo con and the obvious conservative connections that point to an Albertan company and the now hiding behind budget day to find out it's 200 ridings in question that were tampered with ...mix that with a positive upbeat NEW NDP leader , our final hope! I would expect a big huge steamroller to be krushing the CPC soon if not already...and that would be reflected in the polls.
New http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zky2bn0Gtyg New
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QvXax88J8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0eQgUpkJ1Q
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns8LD5Q8ecc
Its not as much of an outlier as you might think. If you look at all the recent national polls - they have consietently shown the NDP very competititive in Man?Sask
So Forum released two different results for Alberta on the same day?
http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/latest-polling-thread-started-march-21-2012#comment-1334304
Searc for "Robbins Research" on these boards. It's a train wreck
If you're talking about the Robbins poll, with good reason
2 words: Wheat Board
That, combined with fatigue with the 3 right-wing governments in power now in Western Canada and the bounce from Greg Sellinger's come-from-behind victory in Manitoba last Fall.
Late 80s under Ed Broadbent (though not on E-day in 1988, of course)
Brachina, you also missed this:
"And we'll keep jobs in Canada, for Canadians, for Canadians". Ed was always repeating himself in speeches. Heard him at the U of Manitoba in 81; yikes, I'm pretty old, lol!
And early 1990 under his successor.
Coincident with the fact that an NDP provincial government was on its way in Ontario that year, followed by Saskatchewan and British Columbia the following year.
Not to burst bubbles but when a new leader is elected-> poll numbers always go up. I could give an example but I don't feel like posting a swedish news link.
Usually because the media is positive. I think that Mulcair can definately handle the media spinsters when they start going negative. I've seen him do well against Soloman and he'll definately win the federal debate in 2015 (and the election day poll, which is the one that counts!).
Yes there is only one poll that matters.
it's important to include numbers for the Liberals, and others;
to look at the combined percentage of the non-Conservative vote.
It also helps that the Nova Scotia NDP government has been seen by the public as a good manager of the public treasury, and not the 'Tax-And-Spend'-type government that the Conservatives have been framing them as for years.
Once the N.S. New Democrats are re-elected next year, those polling results should improve even more for the federal NDP.
The thing this poll shows is the rather comprehensive tilt to the NDP. The NDP is either first or a close second in every single demographic, income group or region. This displacement of the Liberals as an alternative is sweeping. If the slide continues for the Liberals and they are unable to reverse it with their convention then that will be significant-- it will be the first time ever in Canadian history that we have the same two parties in the top two positions in every part of the country and in every demographic. I have never seen this in any poll before-- has anyone else?
It is very difficult for a third party to survive if they are also a middle party without a clear constituency. For the NDP this means that they cold look at a clear two party race against the Cons in the next election. The Cons would be hard pressed to win such a race given how they have ideologically set themselves up. The Cons are well set to compete in a 3, 4, or 5 party race but are positioned badly for a two party race. In order to be competitive in that environment they would have to rebrand themselves as a centre party much like the PCs they displaced. Mulcair's branding of them on the right is an effort to bring the centre to the NDP-- or claim the centre.
If the NDP claims the centre successfully it does not actually have to move there to win especially if it limits the Cons to the right.
Ironically what we may be looking at is the beginning of the end of the Conservative party. The Liberals will likely rebrand themselves to the right of where they used to be and if they are successful they could displace the Cons if the Cons are wearing enough scandal by the next election, we could end up looking at a BC-type system where the Cons are a right wing third party and the right is occupied by the Liberals and the left by the NDP. A John Manley type Liberal could lead what is left of the Liberals into taking much of the support from the Cons while ceding the left to a strong NDP. If the Liberals do not brand themselves in that way they will likely end up as an insignificant force.