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What fantasy world do you live in? Please demonstrate step by step how the NDP would win power. Heck how about you just identify the majority ridings that you see the NDP winning in your scenario.
Not at all. In fact, the astonishingly inept and defeatist tactical sense displayed by many others in this thread and in the other thread has been one of the main subjects of my posts.
You appear not to have read them.
You also appear to be under the common delusion hereabouts that Ontario voters would be eager to "punish" the NDP and "reward" the Conservatives for doing exactly the same thing - bringing down the Liberal government.
Okay, now that the ad hominem driveby remarks are out of the way, do you actually have anything of substance to say in response to the arguments I have made? Or have I mistaken you for someone who is actually capable of discussing politics?
"...no consideration for consequences"?? Ha, that's rich! I've gone to great lengths to elaborate the disastrous consequences of the Ontario NDP's apparent gutlessness when it comes to standing up for their traditional support base in the face of the current austerity assault.
Given how clear you have made it that you have ZERO understanding of how political reality works there really isn't any substance to respond to. The only recourse is to point out that you just don't know what you are talking about. For instance your insistence that the Conservatives would bare an equal brunt of criticism ignores all the framing going on in the media. You see most people don't pay attention to politics all the time. You can rail against it, but they just don't - they have other priorities. So if an election were forced just a few months after the last one most people would be looking for someone to blame and the media will tell them it was the NDP. So a few things will happen, either even fewer people will vote helping the Conservatives or they will go out delibritely to vote for a majority (this is what happened in the May federal election by the way "a stable Conservative majority" was repeated over and over). Since McGuinty is in decline and despised outside of a few urban centres the most likely scenario will be a large Hudak majoirty.
Andrea Horwath is following the only responsible way forward. It may come to an election, but if it does all of the steps you keep attacking are very, very necessary if we are not going to see an even stronger austerity regime.
M. Spector-- I would be grateful if you would not refer to my opinion as a delusion. I'll offer you the same courtesy.
It is overly simplistic to assume that everyone will vote with the same motivation.
Some will disagree with an election and some will take it as an opportunity to replace the government-- there would be both rewards and punishment-- and no reason they will be doled in equal measure to all parties.
I do think that an early election may motivate those on the right to support their vision -- Drummond-style cuts. I think that the biggest opposition party would capitalize on the momentum away from the govenrment.
I think also that the fear of that would also lead some to punish the NDP for forcing the election -- as much as there seems to be a trend now to reward the NDP for trying to avoid one.
It is my opinion that there would be multiple currents in an early election following the Liberal budget and that those currents would not favour the NDP and would favour the PCs. I also think that in as little as a few more months those currents may well change direction and favour the NDP over both other parties. I think keeping the legislation to a minority now and waiting for a better time is the right course-- provided we can get some more minor changes as I laid out in the thread you suggested I did not read.
I believe there would be a very big move away from minority parliament-- a move that hurts the third party-- if we were to have an election within a few months of the last. The move may or may not be punitive but its effects would be.
Please lets keep the discussion on the issue and a little more respectful of our differences. Is that ok by you?
I'd also appreciate if you would debate the issue rather than presume that I am delusional.
ETA: cross posted with LU&E-- and I agree with that post.
@Life, theuniverse etc.
Thank you for illustrating - once again - that there are no limits to the willingness of social democrats to capitulate to the ravages of neoliberalism without a fight.
Some of them even refuse to listen to their own more rational co-thinkers.
M. Spector.
We do not agree. You are making this personal calling us cowards. We have actually laid out why we think it would be bad to go for an eleciton now if one can be avoided. We want to win -- not sacrifice ourselves in a poorly-timed campaign.
We actually feel for the people who would get hurt by a Hudak government.
I'll presume you do to and that we disagree on the strategy.
Can you stop insulting us? It is not helping your argument any-- in fact it is making you look week as you ignore what we are saying and go after our character, committment to the cause, and courage.
I think there will be a much better time to force an election coming soon-- perhaps the next budget. I want to win and change things for people and that is more important to me than the excitement of an election or the need to prove our courage over good sense.
The real test will be where the Liberals go. If they are afraid of an election, and I think they should be, then they will provide real compromises along the lines Sean points out. I think they are the bare minimum the NDP should/can accept. If on the otherhand they pull a Paul Martin and risk an election then we are well on our way to a Hudak majority I am afraid. I don't think people realize the level of antipathy to McGuinty there is outside Toronto and a few other urban centres like Ottawa. The PC base will be highly, highly motivated and will be opening their wallets in big ways and willing to overlook Hudaks shortcomings.
The only responsible way at this point is exactly what the NDP is doing. I strongly dislike this budget, it is causing a number of local job losses and elminating important hospital refurbishments at my local hospital, but I still think the best way forward is to try to get changes and wait for better conditions otherwise what we are seeing in this budget will be just a start for a new Hudak government.
M. Spector if an election is forced now I can tell you what the narrative and the result will be.
It will be the public sector unions wanting to keep their wages that the province cannot afford -- against everyone else.
It will be how the NDP is beholden to the unions. It will be the unions being accused of greed.
It will be wrong. It will be unfair. And we will lose. Badly. It will be a Hudak majority.
Wait a year and we could win even if we are less pure in your mind for waiting.
In the meantime the public sector unions need to do some major public relations work and we must help them. The NDP must stand by them. But the first help we can give them is time to make their case as an election now will be devastating for them.
I note you changed your last post to point to LUE after I had replied... I wrote my last post assuming you included me in it.
Given your posts you must think this poem is an anthem, not a cautionary tale.
The Charge of the Light Brigade.
[hide]Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!'
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldiers knew
Some one had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.
Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turned in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre-stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wonder'd.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!
If we keep the government to a minority we can call for a non-confidence vote over healthcare when the hospital budgets are clearly unable to balance in light of these measures.
Yes I think that the budget is bad.
But I don't think a referendum on public service unions in Ontario will go very well for us and that is what an election would be if it were forced right now. It will polarize the election hurting both the NDP and the Liberals as there is a lot of constituency for the idea that public servants are paid too much.
I agree with Life etc. that the Liberals may make some changes because they too fear an election and may understand the NDP has to get something.
Before we ask the people to vote on this we need to put a stronger case to them and we won't be able to do that in a campaign startng now.
I thought about it and have decided to call you out on this comment as well-- Please do not call other people here irrational and expect to be treated with respect and politeness. That is not how it works.
Debate the concerns we have, certainly, but this approach you have is hurting your case.
How do folks feel about Andrea Horwath?
I am impressed with Horwath.
She is doing things very intelligently. Her move to consult NDP supporters is wise and will give her more credibility presenting it.
I think that if Horwath chooses the right time to pull the plug and over the right issue she very possibly may become premier.
I think she is working a pretty tough hand as best as she can. Would that we could all be so deft and level headed.
Thanks. I hope others chime in too. I'm in Quebec, wish we had a provincial NDP here.
I think she lacks principle and is afraid of her own shadow.
Principle won't pay for TV ads and a campaign bus. Anyone forcing an election is basically saying that yes, we're ready to throw $5 million out the door next month. Which might just be a difficult thing to do with money owing from last year's election.
Of course principle doesn't pay for anything. Neither does cowardice, for that matter. But showing that you have some principles and are willing to fight for them just might prove to be a better fundraising strategy than the 'we're afraid of the voters' routine.
Bag of hammers? Which idiom are you referencing? 'Cause it's less than clear to someone like myself who's not as enlightened and well-read as you. Am I supposed to be dummer than a bag of hammers? Or is it that I'm mad as a bag of hammers? Is it possible for you to say anything without being condescending?
The NDP are far from the only ones who have "spent their lives fighting for the disadvantaged", but they do appear to be quite ready to throw the disadvantaged under the bus now that they have they're in a position where they could influence things for the better for the first time in 17 years.
CFL