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In that case, what east Vancouver was for the NDP in 2001, south Vancouver (i.e. Carole Taylor country and all of that) might imminently be for the BC Liberals...
There were several former Liberals amongst Bill Bennett's and van der Zalm's Socred cabinet ministers too.
I could see Vancouver-Quilchena (Colin Hansen's riding) being a prime candidate to remain one of the few Liberal seats on the map.
The problem is though is that the Cons would probably vote with the Libs to avoid an early election.
- from Westcoast Granny in previous thread
Back in the 60s and early 70s, when the BC Liberals were more of a federal Liberal style middle of the road alternative to the NDP and Social Credit, they would routinely win 15-20% of the vote province wide and win seats like North Van, Van-Point grey, West Van and Oak Bay. They were a parking lot for wealthy educated free enterprise types who found the Socreds too "uncouth"
There is definitely a natural core Liberal constituency out there. The old Vancouver-Point Grey was a multi-member seat. In fact in 1986 they managed to elect both Darlene Marzari (NDP) and Kim Campbell (Social Credit). I think today's Quilchena encompasses the most "naturally Liberal" part of that area, while the remaining VPG is very mixed. I assume Clark will run in a different riding in 2013 which, along with the decline of her party, almost guarantees VPG will go to the NDP.
Outside of Vancouver, I'd suspect that West Van-Sea To Sky would also qualify--well, anything with the heavy Whistler element...
Same pattern in Manitoba where the provincial Liberals are in the low teens nd the only seat they ever win is River Heights - te richest seat in the province where all the old money lives.
If the Liberal collapse gains ground there could be a vote choice between the Cons and the NDP-- If the Liberals go down to single digits and the Cons go up to the 40s then it would be a competitive election again.
I don't think that's as likely as if the situation were reversed with the Liberals being a more centrist third party. It almost happened in 1991 with the Liberals finishing second under Gordon Wilson. It's hard to come from third place to win though, as we found federally.
I'd attribute most of the rise in the polls for the BC Conservatives to three factors:
1) Continued anger over the HST.
2) Bigots who don't want a woman premier. A lot of these folks also don't like the Christy Clark is a federal Liberal.
3) Anti-tax fundamentalists who don't like that the BC Liberals under Christy Clark have reversed a portion of the income tax cuts brought in under Gordon Campbell.
The full reality is probably a bit more complicated than than, but that the jist of it.
The NDP's gains in the polling are probably more complicated.
One big factor is that Adrian Dix has positioned himself as a defender of public education in a way that Carole James didn't. Dix played a visible role in the campaign in 2010 to save five Vancouver schools from closing; he made public education a central plank of his bid for the leadership of the BC NDP -- even holding his campaign launch rally at one of Vancouver's elementary schools; and he spoke at the big teachers rally in Victoria (though he spoke merely in favour of not legislating teachers back to work and not criminalizing further teachers strike action, and did not say he supported a better contract for teachers). This has no doubt gained support for the BC NDP among teachers and parents of school age kids.
The continuing anger over the HST benefits the BC NDP as well as the BC Conservatives, some Liberal-NDP swing voters will make this a deciding factor in their vote, even though the main benificiaries of the anti-HST vote is the BC Conservatives.
Then there's the fact that as time goes by more people come up against the impact of the BC Liberals cuts -- Grossly inadequate levels of certain medical care, the nightmare that is now the elder care system in this province, severely overcrowded schools, sky hight tuition fees, and the list goes on. At a certain point some BC Liberal supporters will decide that enough is enough and will shift their vote to the NDP -- if the NDP can convince these voters that it will do something about at least some of this without wrecking the economy -- Dix has managed to do this where Carole James didn't.
I also wouldn't discount the opposition to the Enbridge pipeline winning over youth voters to the BC NDP who would otherwise be inclined to not support any party. When Nathan Cullen stumps against the Enbridge pipeline and wins support for the federal NDP on that basis it probably gives the BC NDP a bump as well. Much of that is probably folks not diferentiating between the federal and provincial party -- Dix has come out against the Enbridge pipeline in interviews but has not reallydone any campaigning on the issue -- hopefully that will change.
That pipeline will probably be built, just not through Kitimat, but through Prince Rupert. Plan B has been around for some time.
Who has a link to find out what the Chilliwack-Hope riding results were in the last election - i understand the NDP took about 30% of the vote in 2009 so that probably means the NDP has a good shot at both these by-election seats.
OK, got it from CBC - 53% for the Libs, and 33% for the NDP
If that be the case, then NDP voters don't seem to suffer the same affliction as Carole James' NDP got 42% of the 2009 votes. Within a margin of error Dix has been polling at the same levels, just against a divided opposition. I think any rise in Dix's vote share at this point can be legitimately attributed to running a better campaign than to sexism.
Hey leftyinvestor, this is one of the the reason I gave for why some right-wing voters may have shifted their support from the BC liberals to the BC Conservatives. Nothing to do with the increase in BC NDP support.
Was out and about in the Chilliwack-Hope riding today - I think the NDP has a good shot if they pull their vote on E-Day.
Please volunteer if you can especially on E-Day, which is Thursday, April 19th, 8 am to 8 PM being the voting times.
Advance voting starts on Thurs, April 11 and runs 4 days till Sat, April 14th, with the same voting hours as E-Day.
Elections BC are up to some dirty tricks which I will share over the coming days.
That's not plan B. Plan B is to twin the Trans Mountain pipeline to the lower mainland. That way we'll have the possibility of oil spills on the south coast.
Dirty tricks? Please do tell.
I was going to apply to work at the PoMo-Co election, as I'd only been working part-time... but the election call dragged on and on for so long that I actually managed to get a full-time job by the time it was called! I start Tuesday. So I won't be able to help on E-Day either as an employee or as a volunteer.
Their plan A is to build the Enbridge pipeline to Kitimat AND to twin the Kinder Morgan pipeline to Burnaby. Their plan B is to build the Enbridge pipeline to Prince Rupert AND to twin the Kinder Morgan pipeline to Burnaby. Twinning the Kinder Morgan pipeline to Burnaby is part of their plan regardless of which route they pick for the Enbridge pipeline.
On a related but not BC Liberal note:
https://cityhallwatch.wordpress.com/2012/03/21/6571/
Councillor Adriane Carr (Green) made a motion to request consultations with Kinder Morgan regarding any expansion plans, as the project would involve going through Vancouver's harbour. The motion was carried unanimously.
New Angus Reid poll:
NDP - 43%
BC Libs - 23%
BC Cons - 23%
Christy Clark = Rita Johnston
I don't think that John Cummins has the charisma of Gordon Wilson. He also has alienated many of the top Conservatives in BC. I think there is little chance of the Conservatives taking over for the Liberals. Maybe next election after they pull the rug out from Cummins...
At this rate, the next few months could very well see both the BC Conservatives and BC Liberals with new leaders. I'm sure that panic is setting in in the Liberal camp and I would not at all be surprised to see a palace coup against Clark. At least Carole James had some caucus support, but Clark's only caucus supporter is Harry Bloy, who had to resign from cabinet in disgrace and is not running again. I would not be surprised to see a movement to put Kevin Falcon into the premier's chair in an attempt to stem the apparent tide of defections to the Conservatives.
As for the Conservatives, let's face it - Cummins got the job because there were no other candidates interested in taking over the reins of what appeared to be just another fringe party. Although the federal Conservative 'establishment' still seems to be parking its support with the BC Liberals for now, if the BC Conservatives look like they have real potential (and do well in the by-elections) you might see some of that support waver. If the BC Conservatives start to look like a serious alternative party and start attracting more mainstream support, that might also put pressure on Cummins, who was chosen as a caretaker leader until the party got off the ground, to step aside in favour of a more charismatic, more 'electable' candidate who is serious about actually becoming premier.
In any event, this is sure starting to look like a repeat of 1991...
He doesn't even have the charisma of Preston Manning.
I think the BCCons will get a couple anchor seats and then, I agree, they will have a leadership convention to select someone more viable. Perhaps some sort of younger attractive Conservabot who repeats canned spin until people start to believe it's true.
An interesting question is whether Cummins himself gets a seat. I'm sure he could do some research and find himself a seat that's as sure as possible for the general election. I'm surprised he didn't try and get himself named for Chilliwack-Hope.
His federal riding was Delta-Richmond East. Provincially Delta North went >50% NDP so he wouldn't touch that. Delta South is Vicki Huntington's independent riding - I wager he'd leave that alone. Richmond East was 58.95% Liberal last time - that might be a good chance for him to turf a sitting Liberal while having name recognition among his constituents.
Don't let your biases fool you.
What is going to happen when the Cons start outpolling the Libs?
This really looks good on that idiot, er Phil Hockstein though. I wonder how much longer his association's contractors are going to put up with his pissing their money down the drain running those attack ads against Adrian Dix.
Poll shows B.C. Liberals in free fall as Conservatives gain groundhttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politic...
It says on google
"Adrian Dix and NDP pull into big lead, poll finds " article in the vancouver sun 4 hours ago.
It also says:
Coming during two byelection campaigns, the poll also found that NDP leader Adrian Dix leads Clark by eight points on the question of who would make the ...
Obviously some damage control phone calls were made and now it says this:
BC Liberals crater amid exodus to provincial Conservatives — pollStay tuned as I have a feeling some more damage control calls are being made
OMG, what is happenin' in BC.
Premier Clark runs away from reporters when they ask her 'bout latest polling results today.
Christy you can run, but you cannot hide!
This is maybe where it starts getting worse for the NDP. If the Liberals totally crater and the Conservatives pick up that support it becomes a straight left-right fight which usually doesn't go so well for the NDP. Hang in there, Christy!