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Alberta politics, election thread 2

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Robo
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Joined: Jun 1 2003
April 2, 2012 - 6:37pm
#91
Howard wrote:

Edmonton Abacus, March 26-28th

PC 30 WRA 29 LIB 20 NDP 18 OTH 3

And those are the good numbers

Those are relatively good numbers for Edmonton. In the 2008 campaign, the numbers in Edmonton were PC:43%, Lib:33%, NDP:18%. The NDP narrowly lost two seats to the Tories that the NDP held prior to the 2008 election; with the vote split in this way, those seats should be won again by the NDP. The Liberals won 3 seats in Edmonton with 33% of the vote there; at 20%, the Liberals would likely lose their seats if all else were equal. But, on the other hand, while Wild Rose will have a hard time winning any seats in Edmonton, taking a lot of what had been Tory votes away may open up seats for New Democrats and maybe even Liberals to pick up seats that would have been out of reach with a "united right" campaign. Wild Rose may well win the second greatest number of seats provincewide, but Edmonton has the potential to be in a sea of its own. It is still early in the campaign and things have the potential to change. The media generally has paid the greatest amount of attention to the Wild Rose spurt in popular support in the early days of the campaign. While the Calgary Herald may stay focused on the PC/WRA race, I would expect Edmonton media to talk a lot more about "interesting splits" as election day approaches, which will help the NDP there. ADDED: Oops. When I looked at the Wikipedia page for the 2008 Alberta provincial election, I didn't notice that the numbers that I cited above were for the city of Edmonton alone. The Abacus polling numbers are clearly for Edmonton and surroundings. If the NDP is polling at 18% in Edmonton and surroundings, things will be even better for the NDP in the city proper, where the NDP and Liberal vote in recent years has been concentrated.

Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005
April 2, 2012 - 8:22pm
#92

Robo wrote:
Howard wrote:

Edmonton Abacus, March 26-28th

PC 30 WRA 29 LIB 20 NDP 18 OTH 3

And those are the good numbers

Those are relatively good numbers for Edmonton. In the 2008 campaign, the numbers in Edmonton were PC:43%, Lib:33%, NDP:18%. The NDP narrowly lost two seats to the Tories that the NDP held prior to the 2008 election; with the vote split in this way, those seats should be won again by the NDP. The Liberals won 3 seats in Edmonton with 33% of the vote there; at 20%, the Liberals would likely lose their seats if all else were equal. But, on the other hand, while Wild Rose will have a hard time winning any seats in Edmonton, taking a lot of what had been Tory votes away may open up seats for New Democrats and maybe even Liberals to pick up seats that would have been out of reach with a "united right" campaign. Wild Rose may well win the second greatest number of seats provincewide, but Edmonton has the potential to be in a sea of its own. It is still early in the campaign and things have the potential to change. The media generally has paid the greatest amount of attention to the Wild Rose spurt in popular support in the early days of the campaign. While the Calgary Herald may stay focused on the PC/WRA race, I would expect Edmonton media to talk a lot more about "interesting splits" as election day approaches, which will help the NDP there. ADDED: Oops. When I looked at the Wikipedia page for the 2008 Alberta provincial election, I didn't notice that the numbers that I cited above were for the city of Edmonton alone. The Abacus polling numbers are clearly for Edmonton and surroundings. If the NDP is polling at 18% in Edmonton and surroundings, things will be even better for the NDP in the city proper, where the NDP and Liberal vote in recent years has been concentrated.

The other advantage is if that poll holds, it gives a minority legislature, which will give the NDP a great deal of sway even with a small number of seats.


bekayne
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Joined: Jan 23 2006
April 2, 2012 - 9:50pm
#93

Howard wrote:

I think the Alberta NDP will get a bump from the debate (there is going to be one right?). Brian Mason is the most experienced politician that will be on that stage.

April 12

http://daveberta.ca/2012/03/who-should-be-invited-to-the-televised-leaders-debate/


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
April 2, 2012 - 9:51pm
#94

OMG, the NDP possibly holding the balance of power in Alberta. Go Wildrose Go!!! Laughing


green-left
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Joined: Mar 26 2012
April 3, 2012 - 10:41pm
#95

i am so scared of the wildrose winning. Since i am in calgary i think i might vote PC, maybe liberal to try to prevent the wildrose from winning. Is anyone else voting strategically for the PC?

From the Globe:
  Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majorit...

 


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005
April 3, 2012 - 10:42pm
#96

NorthReport wrote:

OMG, the NDP possibly holding the balance of power in Alberta. Go Wildrose Go!!! Laughing

Be careful what you wish for. The WRA might get a majority. A minority would be very interesting though, and I can't see anyone else supporting the WRA.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011
April 4, 2012 - 12:14am
#97

From the G&M article above:

Edmonton, Wildrose is at 31, PCs 30, Liberals 18, NDP 17 and Alberta Party 3. However, the margin of error is much higher in the cities, just over five per cent, because the sample sizes are just a few hundred.

The polls are consistent with a WRA majority government. The only thing that (I think) can stop it is WRA gaffes while they hold the frontrunner seat. Don't vote strategically unless you are convinced that it is really going to make a difference. The burden of proof should land on the value of voting strategically, not voting for your first choice. In the end, Alberta may just as likely see a PC wipeout, WRA majority, and the NDP & Liberals coming close in surprising places due to 3 or 4-way vote splits.


West Coast Greeny
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Joined: Sep 14 2004
April 4, 2012 - 2:28am
#98

In 6 days the polls have gone from showing a tie to showing a 13 point WRP lead. It's pretty clear how the Redford-Smith battle for government is going to go at this point. The next question is how Mason and Sherman will compete for votes in Edmonton. I think that at some point, the progressive vote in Edmonton will consolidate around the organizationally stronger NDP, and allow them to come up the middle between a WRP and PC split to take 5 or more seats. 

An interesting tidbit from the federal Forum poll that came out after Mulcair's victory at the leadership convention:

Canada
CPC - 35% (down 5)
NDP - 35% (up 4)
LIB - 19% (even)
BLQ - 7% (up 1)
GRN - 3% (down 1)

Alberta
CPC - 52% (down 15)
NDP - 31% (up 14)
LIB - 14% (up 5)
GRN - 3% (down 3)

The NDP is also leading in Saskatoba. Don't let them tell you it can't be done. I forget who said that. Wink


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
April 4, 2012 - 11:11am
#99

It seems there is not a political party that is far enough to the right to satisfy Albertans.

WR - 43%

PC - 30%

NDP - 12%

Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majorit...


green-left
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Joined: Mar 26 2012
April 4, 2012 - 2:18pm
#100

I am in calgary and would like to vote for the NDP but the NDP have no chance of winning a seat in Calgary. Therefore, my choices are either Liberal or PC if i want to vote to try to prevent the Wildrose from winning a majority.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005
April 4, 2012 - 3:03pm
#101

Then make the choice you see fit.  That doesn't make a case for voting Liberal or PC anywhere ELSE in Alberta, though.


green-left
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Joined: Mar 26 2012
April 4, 2012 - 6:20pm
#102

Ken Burch wrote:

Then make the choice you see fit.  That doesn't make a case for voting Liberal or PC anywhere ELSE in Alberta, though.

I agree. Each person needs to make their own decision. But i do hope people vote strategically to prevent the wildrose from winning.


wage zombie
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Joined: Dec 8 2004
April 4, 2012 - 8:47pm
#103

green-left wrote:

I am in calgary and would like to vote for the NDP but the NDP have no chance of winning a seat in Calgary. Therefore, my choices are either Liberal or PC if i want to vote to try to prevent the Wildrose from winning a majority.

My philosophy is that one vote doesn't really matter much anyway.  So vote for how you want, it's not like it's going to come down to that one vote.

If you are willing to work for a campaign, or even just take a sign, well then it would be worth being "strategic".

If you're just planning to vote and not much more, might as well just vote for your first choice.


Rebecca West
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Joined: Nov 28 2001
April 4, 2012 - 8:55pm
#104

CFL


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