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Leger
Canada
NDP 33%
CON 32%
LIB 19%
GRN 8%
BQ 7%
Atlantic
NDP 49%
LIB 20%
CON 16%
GRN 15%
Quebec
NDP 47%
BQ 29%
LIB 10%
CON 10%
GRN 3%
Ontario
CON 39%
NDP 26%
LIB 25%
GRN 9%
Prairies
CON 49%
NDP 26%
LIB 13%
GRN 12%
Alberta
CON 61%
LIB 17%
NDP 13%
GRN 5%
BC
NDP 34%
CON 30%
LIB 22%
GRN 10%
with those atlantic numbers would Halifax West come our way?
Those regionals don't add up for me. The Atlantic provinces aren't large enough to carry the NDP to first place nationally, and there's no way the Conservatives would be in the low 30s and in second place if they were that high in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Keep in mind that being at 10% is low even by Tory standards in Quebec and this poll also has really bad Tory numbers in BC (down almost 15 points from the last election). Even Ontario is not all its cracked up to be for the Tories. They took 45% in ON in the May election and this poll has them down to 39%. Man/Sask together are only about 5% of the population of Canada so what happens there has little impact on the national numbers.
Atlantic could NDP gains. it was Layton-mania after he died
In Provincial general elections:
looks at Newfoundland general elections 24.6% (2011) from 8.5% (2007) growing +16.1 pp and opinion polls says 28% (Feb 2012)
New Brunswick NDP 23% (Nov 2011) from 10.3 (2010) it is +13 pp and Nova Scotia NDP steady 45%. And Finally PEI little gains NDP 3% (2011) from 1.9% (2007).
Q: is it absolutely impossible to force a federal election before 2015? I think with the RoboCalls and F35 controversies an earlier election call would be disastrous for the Cons, especially if the Opposition parties keep hammering away on Harper mismanagement.
Yes.
NDP in dead heat with Conservatives Nationwide poll confirms statistical tie
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/dead+heat+with+Conservatives/6423028...
Not that the situation can't be improved (duh); but I think it's an overstatement to read fatal "can't win Ontario" into those numbers--or at least in the same sense that "can't win Quebec" used to be a stigma. Look: the federal NDP's already sitting upon its biggest base of Ontario seats ever. And even if it still gets fewer Ontario seats than the Tories next time, that may not be a barrier to a majority.
Harper "didn't win" Ontario when he won his first minority in 2006 (40 seats to the Liberals' 54)--and his "Quebec breakthrough" only netted him 10 seats, and it's gone downhill for him there ever since...
You are quite right Adma.Made me want to look at where a majority would come from in the next election. I looked at both the NDP and the Cons to see what they would have to do. The bar is higher for the NDP but still pretty steep for the Cons.
Here is a breakdown of what an NDP majority government could look like. The NDP would need 170 seats. The first number is the number of seats and the second a number that if the NDP achieved that they would be on the way to a majority.
These would be stunning numbers and that puts in perspective just how high the hill is: The NDP would need to get close to half of Ontario's seats, sweep Quebec and BC, gain in AB, SK, MB, NS, NB and NL. If the NDP could get more than 50% of Ontario then it would not need miracles everywhere else.
Essentially in Ontario the NDP would have to swallow the majority of the Liberal vote in the province. That would flip a pile of Con seats and of course some Liberal seats.
I think when you look at this you can see that the chance of the NDP getting a majority is somewhat slim and relies on holding the combination of Liberals, Greens and BQ to under 30 seats in total. The Cons essentially required a near sweep of Ontario to get their majority last time. The bar is not so high due to the new seats but they will still need a huge number of seats in Ontario to hang on.
*****
NDP Majority (This is roughly what the NDP would need to do to get a majority)
Canada 338 (+30 seats) NDP 170 (+67) Con 141 (-25) Liberal 20 (-14) BQ 6 (+2) Green 1 (NC)
Ontario 121 -- NDP 52 (+30) Cons 64 (-9) Liberal 5 (-6)
Quebec 78 -- NDP 65 (+6) BQ 6 (+2) Con 2 (-3) Lib 5 (-2)
BC 42 -- NDP 30 (+18) Con 11 (-10) Green 1 (NC) Liberal 0 (-2)
AB 34 -- NDP 2 (+1) Con 32 (+5)
MB 14 -- NDP 5 (+3) Con 9 (-2) Liberal 0 (-1)
SK 14 -- NDP 4 (+4) Con 9 (-4) Liberal 1 (NC)
NS 11 -- NDP 6 (+3) Con 3 (-1) Liberal 2 (-2)
NB 10 -- NDP 2 (+1) Con 7 (-1) Liberal 1 (NC)
NL 7 -- NDP 3 (+1) Con 1 (NC) Liberal 3 (-1)
PEI 4 -- NDP 0 Con 1 (NC) Liberal 3 (NC)
North 3 -- NDP 1 (NC) Con 2 (NC)
*****
Con Majority (This is what the Cons would need to do to get a majority -- note in Ontario this would mean the Cons would lose seats there but have them offset by new seats in 905)
Also note the NDP could gain 34 seats, reduce the Liberals by another 8, hold the BQ to only 6 and still fail to stop a second Con Majority.
This shows you the impact of the new seats. If the Liberals get more seats due to vote splits it is even more likely the Cons will get a majority than if they lose more seats next time.
This is the reason people are claiming a Conservative dynasty. Even considering the neck and neck polling results the Cons could get a bare majority with very few more votes than the NDP. A near tie would create a minority with the Liberals holding the balance of power.
Canada 338 (+30 seats) NDP 137 (+34) Con 170 (+4) Liberal 26 (-8) BQ 6 (+2) Green 1 (NC)
Ontario 121 -- NDP 35 (+13) Cons 73 (+2) Liberal 11 (NC)
Quebec 78 -- NDP 64 (+5) BQ 6 (+2) Con 3 (-2) Lib 5 (-2)
BC 42 -- NDP 20 (+8) Con 21 (NC) Green 1 (NC) Liberal 0 (-2)
AB 34 -- NDP 1 (NC) Con 33 (+6)
MB 14 -- NDP 5 (+1) Con 11 (NC) Liberal 0 (-1)
SK 14 -- NDP 1 (+1) Con 12 (-1) Liberal 1 (NC)
NS 11 -- NDP 5 (+2) Con 4 (NC) Liberal 2 (-2)
NB 10 -- NDP 2 (+1) Con 7 (-1) Liberal 1 (NC)
NL 7 -- NDP 3 (+1) Con 1 (NC) Liberal 3 (-1)
PEI 4 -- NDP 0 Con 1 (NC) Liberal 3 (NC)
North 3 -- NDP 1 (NC) Con 2 (NC)
******
Anyway some math to think about.
The most likely result is in fact a minority with a rump of Liberals holding the balance of power.
You should read the comments from Lib supporters on the Gazette. You know, NDP sponsored poll, once Canadians get to know Mulcari they'll hate them, the NDP will turn Canada into Greece, etc., etc., etc. It is of course too early to ltell anything but you can sense the panic. I have to admit, I want to enjoy it as long as I can!
Sean in Ottawa, the NDP needs to win seats outside of BC and Ontario: two very expensive provinces to campaign in and where the NDP and Conservative vote is too efficient to swing that many seats without a massive change in the polls.
If the NDP doesn't want to run the next campaign completely on the defensive, then it is also going to have to cause the Tories some problems in the 110 odd seats where they win outright majorities (i.e. >50% of the vote).
Thanks for breaking that down, Sean. A majority will be a steep hill to climb, especially given the additional seats. (And since a minority would most likely hinge on the Liberals, I'm not counting on that, even if the NDP wind up with the most seats.) If we can hold our gains in Quebec, Ontario remains the biggest prize with which to take government. The province must finally sour on the Conservatives. Whether that happens within the next three years, and the NDP would be the chief benficiary, I don't know. But I think Mulcair and the party will do more than merely hope for that to happen.
Fixed it for you..
Dushan, I don't know what you mean honestly. I agree I could be overly optimistic, but I am pretty sure I am reading this right. My gut says things have changed in Quebec, and that the NDP is always going to have a real prescense in Quebec. It'll go up and down, but I am certain that the NDP is not going to be shut out again.
If you want to tell me what you are driving at, I am open to hearing what you mean. But I feel the way I do.
Me too, Arthur. I feel that the time for the NDP has come, and we have to be really careful not to blow it, but we also need to really keep up the pressure on Harper.
I think the election for 2015 is set in stone, unless Harper decided to change that. However, given the election scandal, I guess it's possible some by-elections may be held. But we'll have to wait an see.
I could be wrong, but I smell a potential right-wing troll.
-
I'm not so sure about the NDP getting 30 seats in BC, but I think that in other areas the NDP could actually do better than Sean's model.
Look at NB for example, the NDP took 29% of the vote and was second in every riding but one...I think that there could be potential to turn one seats there into as many as 3 or 4 (Moncton, Saint John and Restigouche would be obvious prospects).
In PEI Charlottetwon could be a serious target.
In NL, the while province could be targeted - who knows one or two Liberals from rural NL could even be coaxed to run as New Democrats in 2015!
In Quebec, i hate to be greedy but why stop at 65 out of 78? By 2015 the BQ may be virtually dead and the NDP may be the one and only anti-Harper vote...If people think the NDP can win nationally we could be looking at a 1980 style scenario (Trudeau Liberals won 74 out of 75 seats!). Once you get past Beauce and Mount Royal - is there a single seat in Quebec that is not winnabel for the NDP??
I think that there could be a potential pick up in Yukon next time (there are almost 800 NDP members there)
In Alberta with the new map and new seats there could easily be as many as 4 serious targets in Edmonton.
Yes of course we could move the model around but the point is you can see how steep the hill is.
But Stockholm you raise an interesting point and it speaks a little to Cullen's position of cooperation.
I never bought the idea of electoral collusion. However, many of the Liberal MPs I think would make good NDP MPs. I would have no trouble offering many of the 34 sitting Liberal MPs the nomination to run as New Democrats in the next election. I'd be happy to make this a public offer to them.
My own MP in Ottawa Vanier is a bright man who would be an asset as just one example. There are others.
Obviously we cannot take MPs who have not run as NDP candidates because that is our position on floor crossers but we could say as it is getting close to election time that those who want to make the next election their time we would welcome them.
Unfortunately the other type of floor crossing does not work because the PM could delay the by-election we would require for too long a time.
NOT, Kevin Lamoureux. That guy ought to go out and get a real job for the first time in his life. Oh wait a sec, I forgot, he's supposed to be a Cabinet Minister. Silly me.
But why stop at swallowing the Liberal vote? There seems to be some ducking of the possibility that a fair bit of the existing Conservative vote is to be had, too--and conversely, who knows how much of said Con vote a reinvigorated Liberal party can siphon off, allowing a few New Democrats up the middle...
And the actual details are here, in French:
http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_7avril2012.pdf
I played with the regional results on the UBC Forecaster. But the Atlantic and Prairie samples are so low I didn't use them. (The weird Atlantic figures would give the NDP every seat but one.) So I used the national swings for those two regions.
Result: Conservatives 133, NDP 124, Lib 45, Bloc 5, Green 1.
The NDP gains 10 seats in Quebec, wiping out the Conservatives, leaving the Liberals with nothing but Mount Royal, but losing one seat to the bloc.
The NDP gains three seats in BC: Nanaimo—Alberni, Kamloops--Thompson—Cariboo, and Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge—Mission.
The Liberals gain four seats in BC: Vancouver South, North Vancouver, Newton--North Delta, and West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country.
The NDP gains three in Saskatchewan: Saskatoon--Rosetown—Biggar, Palliser, and Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River.
The Liberals gain ten in Ontario: Don Valley West, Etobicoke Centre, Willowdale, Mississauga East--Cooksville, Kitchener—Waterloo, Pickering--Scarborough East, Nipissing—Timiskaming, Don Valley East, London North Centre, and Scarborough Centre.
The NDP gains two in Ontario: Sault Ste. Marie and Bramalea--Gore--Malton.
The NDP gains two in Manitoba: Elmwood—Transcona and Winnipeg North.
The Liberals gain two in New Brunswick: Moncton--Riverview—Dieppe and Madawaska--Restigouche.
The NDP gains one in Nova Scotia: South Shore--St. Margaret's
The Liberals gain Labrador.
What about Nationwide NDP 2nd place?
seats / 2nd
Canada 103 / 121 = 224 seats
BC 12 / 19 = 31 seats
Alberta 1 / 23 = 24 seats but possible more than 5 seats
Sask 0 / 13 = 13 seats
MB 2 / 9 = 11 seats
ON 22 / 34 = 56 seats
QC 59 / 14 = 73 seats but there will be 77
NB 1 / 6 = 7 seats
NS 3 / 3 = 6 seats
PEI 0 / 0 0 there could be 1
NFLD 2 / 0 = 2 seats
I would not say stop at-- however, the NDP needs a lot more votes than it can likely expect to take from the Cons...
Sorry I don't get the question.
Are you suggesting that any second place is a potential win-- I would not agree with that.
It is important though that the NDP has placed second in many and that should help but many are a distant second and some third place finishes are a better bet.
Also the dynamics of one election is different than the next so micro-visioning based on the last election won't work-- huge boundary changes are also coming.
One point I could make is this: 1 year ago the idea of an NDP majority was fanciful. Now it is just difficult but we could see where it would come from-- that is a huge change.
The more likely scenario is the NDP leading a minority government-- likely a very strong minority given that the third party could be very small. However, a majority is not impossible.
So too is a Conservative majority so the work is cut out.
meh
Yes true, because of that they ve been voted NDP since ever, they want Aboriginal peoples' treaty, land and constitutional rights,
and also Quebec francophones want open constitutional too.