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So...what WILL it take to swing Ontario to the NDP in 2015

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theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

Increase the youth vote. There are a LOT of new voters who will come of age by 2015. When the House isn't in session, send a bunch of young NDP MPs (from all over the country) on a speaking tour. Engage an entire generation who has, by default, been left out of the conversation.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

A cadillac in every driveway, a chicken in every pot...


bekayne
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Joined: Jan 23 2006

Howard wrote:

a chicken in every pot...

Mulcair's against that until there are more studies done on the pot's potency


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

I believe the two oldest parties and their having tied Canada's economic wagon of fortunes to a basket case economy south of us are helping to do the job for us. They are offering nothing to voters except austerity and more bad economies.

We actually have help from the enemy. It's like having a "third way" fist working for us in a boxing match. They are beating themselves and handing momentum to the NDP.


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

Yes, we just have to sit back, fold our arms, and watch the masses rally around our flag!

Who ever said politics was hard work?


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

They used to deliver a bit of prosperity during the cold war era. It's gone, and so are they losing momentum.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

M. Spector wrote:

Who ever said politics was hard work?

 

It's not, actually. FPTP is not about democratic populism as you seem to believe. Have a gander at some of the threads on our still currently obsolete electoral system. 

We could promise the world, and there will still be millions of non-voters and disaffected and jaded voters in Ontario. They have been used and disabused from voting regardless. FPTP is about learned helplessness as well as numerically eliminating millions of votes long before they are cast.

Where the hard work comes into play is having a sufficiently filled to brimming campaign war chest to win targeted ridings. And proper targeting of potential swing ridings is important, too. We have to think like German field generals during WW II with their rapid mobilizations and three-pronged punch attacks against superior numbers. Sad but true.


jdman
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Joined: Apr 9 2012

Doctor Manderly wrote:

The biggest challenge  to overcome in my view is Media Bias...

 

Most major media are pro Conservative....so that is going to shape voters views

 

* The exeption is the Star...and parts of of the CBC  which are Liberal..No major media are pro NDP

You are dead wrong here. All media besides the Sun news network are Liberal biased. The reason there is no pro NDP news is because until the last election, they were considered too left. Which they are. They have no real ideas of their own, so nobody knows what the stand for.

This will be true once again in 2015, after they lose the majority of their seats due to Layton  being dead. Also people will more than likely not throw their votes away with the NDP, as they did last time. We have seen what happens if you rig elections with vote swaping and such, nobody actually thought the NDP would actually win that many seats. i bet the majority of those who did toss their votes away to the NDP wish they had have just voted as they usually did, with the Liberals.

 

Sorry folks, but we are going to see an even stronger majority CPC govt in 2015. Bring it on!


mtm
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Joined: Oct 16 2008

jdman, I hope people in the CPC keep thinking like you, because then it will come as a complete shock when we win, as you seem to have ignored all the warning signs.

Unfortunately (for me), I think most in the Conservative war room are much more acutely aware than you are of the still emerging shift in Canadian politics that now frames the NDP as their main competition for government.


jdman
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Joined: Apr 9 2012

mtm wrote:

jdman, I hope people in the CPC keep thinking like you, because then it will come as a complete shock when we win, as you seem to have ignored all the warning signs.

Unfortunately (for me), I think most in the Conservative war room are much more acutely aware than you are of the still emerging shift in Canadian politics that now frames the NDP as their main competition for government.

There is no shift, as you put it. It was a scam. Wait and see. Hell even the green party won a seat. There is a first for everything, but that does not mean anything. Just bizarro luck.


mtm
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Joined: Oct 16 2008

Ooooookay.

Fortunately, the Canadian voting public are not wilful idiots as you seem to take glee in asserting.  Contrary to what you may believe, they knew exactly who they were voting for and why, and that doesn't constitute "bizarro luck".

By your logic (or in this case anything but), Harper's majority with a minority of the votes was also an instance of "bizarro luck", and indicates nothing at all.  You can't have it both ways.


Last time I reply to a "joined today troll".


jdman
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Joined: Apr 9 2012

mtm wrote:

Harper's majority with a minority of the votes

 

Mmmkkkkk.... if you insist on going there. How about Mulclairs overwhelming support of what was it???25% of the 50% of the NDP who actually decided to vote for any candadate at all?

Thanks for the troll comment. Made me laugh. Kiss


jdman
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Joined: Apr 9 2012

jdman wrote:

mtm wrote:

Harper's majority with a minority of the votes

 

Mmmkkkkk.... if you insist on going there. How about Mulclairs overwhelming support of what was it???25% of the 50% of the NDP who actually decided to vote for any candadate at all?

Thanks for the troll comment. Made me laugh. Kiss

 

Nobody wants to go there??? Bueller, Bueller, Bueller????


Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

There seems to be a bit of a "time lag" in Ontario and in order for the NDP to win in Ontario they'll have to squeeze down the Liberal vote further. It will have to become clear to Ontarians that the NDP is THE opposition party and that Mulcair and the NDP are the "new Liberals."

The NDP already made major inroads in the GTA - and I can't see why they can't sweep Scarborough, expand from their Bramalea-Gore-Malton base to other Brampton seats, and seats like Mississauga East-Cooksville, Ajax-Pickering, etc.  After all they win these types of suburban seats in Greater Vancouver.

Of course there is a more principled approach and taking the hard road to power by genuinely changing people's ideological perceptions - but I don't think the "modern" NDP is up for the task.  Thus they're going to pursue the "new Liberals" approach.


jdman
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Joined: Apr 9 2012

Lord Palmerston wrote:
Thus they're going to pursue the "new Liberals" approach.

 

why not form another coalition with the liberals then? I mean if you already consider yourselves the "new liberals", seems like the move to make.That way, you would have their votes, plus the NDP. Sure to be a solid choice in the 2015 election.

 

 


Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

Ideologically - with the Liberals led by an ex-NDPer and the NDP lead by an ex-Liberal - it makes sense at this point (though I wouldn't be part of it), but the Liberal "brand" may be so tainted at this point that it makes more sense for the NDP to just klll off the Liberals in 2015 (or for the LPC to fold up).

There is really one LPC constituency now - affluent urban professionals who are too educated to vote Tory and too rich to vote NDP.  


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Ontario just has to realize why the jobs are disappearing: a raw deal on globalization and trade, and the dutch disease.

If they realize that we're competing with countries who have horrifying labor and environmental standards -- and that it's starting to affect even white collar service and technology professions -- they'll vote NDP.

If they realize that the quick oil money from foreign investors is sending our dollar so high that our value-added exports are uncompetitive, they'll vote NDP.

If they keep thinking that it's good economic policy to sell off non-renewable resources for quick cash as fast as possible, and that those manufacturing jobs will just magically come back by slashing social security, they'll vote for the Conservatives.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Of course there is a more principled approach and taking the hard road to power by genuinely changing people's ideological perceptions - but I don't think the "modern" NDP is up for the task.  Thus they're going to pursue the "new Liberals" approach.

I don't think so. And I don't think it's necessary to embark on ideological instruction, either.

The NDP are now the anti-Conservative choice for government. That wasn't evident to enough voters in the dying days last election. Only in that sense has the party become the "new Liberals." 

 

 

 


jdman
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Joined: Apr 9 2012

To me, the NDP needs to stop trying to nannystate everyone, and mind their own business. Take the gun registry for example.

Mulcair says he will reinstate a defunct program, that has zero net gain, and costs billions the first time round....He has no problem continuing to throw good money at bad.

The majority of canadians like individual freedoms, and dont like red tape. as well people who work damn hard for their money, are tired of seeing useless drug addicts lining up to collect welfare, month after month. Never with any sort of drug screeening process. However if i want to work in the oil patch, i will be required to take a piss test.

I refuse to work for any business that will require me to piss in a cup for work. Thus why i stay in BC, make a decent wage, although nothing like i would be making in AB.

I have never had any issue keeping, or finding a job. If you, or you, or you, are....Find a new job that is in demand, or get out of the way and stop bitching about how ou are out of work.

If you truely cared to find work, you would put out the joint, grasp the fact that "occupy" protests, are not paying the bills.

I dont feel sorry for any single person who says they cant find work. It is BS. You are lazy.


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

Howard wrote:

A cadillac in every driveway

 

and a car elevator to go with it.


Winston
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Joined: Feb 17 2007

madmax wrote:
Talk about jobs = Success Talk about Gun Registery = Failure Talk about Incompetence of Conservative Government = Success Talk about Whipped vote for Gun Registery = Failure Talk about Fiscal Conservative Incompentence = Success Talk about Bringing back Gun Registery = Failure Talk about Conservative Ethical Failures = SUCCESS Talk about Gun Registery = FAILURE Talk about Election Fraud = SUCCESS Talk about Gun Registery = Failure So.. if you are a Conservative.. what area are you going to emphasis to keep Ontario.. If you are NDP where do you want the Narrative Seeing Mulcair already take the Gun Registery Bait.. I can see the path he has chosen..

Right...because the average 416/905 voter is going to vote Tory just to stop the NDP from bringing back the gun registry.  This issue has the power to sway the vote in perhaps 85 ridings in the country:

75 of them are in Québec, and to them the gun registry represents a valued response to the Montréal massacre.

The other 10 are yellow-dog Tory ridings on the Prairies.

Tom responded honestly and frankly to a direct question put to him on TLMEP.  He said IF the Party (not him) put the registry in the platform for 2015, he would whip the vote.

Give your head a shake!


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

I don't think the long gun registry is a losing issue per se. Those police forces in the GTA (ridings that are key to Harper's majority) all largely support gun controls because it makes it easier to deal with gun violence.

But I think we can monitor guns without hurting responsible gun owners. Yeah, we don't have a constitutional right to own guns. But guns are still a passtime for many and a necessity for some. This issue isn't nearly as important as the rising unemployment and shrinking opportunity in the Harper economy. We ought to be able to find middle ground on guns, for the sake of moving onto more critical issues.


Life, the unive...
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Joined: Mar 23 2007

Sorry but the NDP will not win government, or even have a chance at it by using the Liberal langauge of the gun registry.  There are ways to approach gun control without opening up the wedge politics of Liberals and Conservatives.  Your numbers portray an ignorance of many, many ridings in Canada, and in places like southwestern Ontario where the NDP must win seats to compete.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

I agree that going after guns in that way were a big-L liberal idea. A lot of working people are comfortable around guns and use them responsibly. The registry starts fails to acknowledge that premise. I remain hopeful that there's some kind of alternative between scrapping the registry versus restoring it.


madmax
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Joined: Apr 15 2008
WINSTON If you want to lose Ontario... Talk about the Gun Registery. Thanks for proving my point. You didn't talk about Jobs, the Economy, Ethics.. or anything else the NDP can capitalize on. You took the bait and quite frankly as long as that 3rd rail exists the Torys will exploit it. Tories are excellent at 3rd Rail Politik.. We talk about growth and you went directly where I expected someone to go.. I am surprised it took so long for someone to get hooked. Outside of Toronto... the Gun registery is viewed opposite to Quebec view of the Registery. This thread is about winning Ontario .. What does matter is that NDP MPs and Candidates campaigned for 7 years to scrap the registery. IIRC 7 of the 9 Elected NDP MPs voted against the Registery when it came forward. The Registery is the Liberals Failed policy. It failed because the deaf ears of the Liberals wouldn't fix what didn't make sense. The NDP could have fixed the Registery.. but never had the opportunity and now its a tainted affair. NDP voters, MPs, and Members are not in unison on the registery but the passions lie on both sides. That said.. the Registery is gone and to bring it back would not aid in getting any seats in Ontario. The Liberals Fell on their swords defending it. NDP MPS had to make a choice when circling the wagons... and the popular MPs held their seats regardless of their registery vote. So... to make Ontario Winnable you have to speak in Winning terms... The Jobs, the Economy, ethics... competence, fiscal management and social justice are the NDPs strong cards and are popular in Ontario. The Registery is not .... and trying to bring it back in any kind of policy is putting lipstick on a pig. If I were the Tories..my attack add would be.. a clip of Mulcair saying he is going to whip the vote on the Registery, or that the NDP is going to bring it back. You want me to give my head a shake.. I suggest you take your foot off the third rail before you blow a gasket. There are many many many ridings.. and many many many voters who are in line with the NDP but opposed to the Registery and I have heard this from NDP members for over a decade. There is a difference from Toronto and GTA to the rest of Ontario. When I meet a person in London who isn't a Conservative but supports the elimination of the Registery... then you better figure out why? In the meantime.. if you want to win Ontario... JOBS, ECONOMY, ETHICS, FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, COMPETENCE... everything Mulcair is currently engaging in... I just disagree with taking the 3rd rail..

socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

I can't disagree. I think dropping the registry is preferable to bringing it back fully. Some gun controls would be a good thing, and even a decent alternative to the registry. But seeing as crime is down anyway, it's not worth making guns into an issue.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Word of mouth: NDP English ads debuted tonight on the Jays home opener.

IMO, a smart buy.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

JeffWells wrote:

Word of mouth: NDP English ads debuted tonight on the Jays home opener.

IMO, a smart buy.

Would you say the idea is a home run :D

DM
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Joined: Apr 9 2012

I would say the Gun registry issue is an urban rural wedge issue.... I think the solution would be to let that issue drop and focus on jobs, jobs, jobs....

...just pure Politics wise...it hurts the NDP in rural Ontario ..... and and the rest of rural Canada...Harper knows this .......he has made tons of $$$ from it fundraising wise in the past....he would love the NDP to keep helping him in this way....

 

Setting aside the Public Policy issue


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

JeffWells wrote:

Word of mouth: NDP English ads debuted tonight on the Jays home opener.

IMO, a smart buy.

Didn't catch it. Does it follow this script:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/03/26/pol-ndp-ads.html

?


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