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Latest polling thread - started April 10, 2012

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Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

New Forum poll just of Quebec confirms the massive surge for the NDP under Mulcair:

NDP - 41%

BQ - 22%

Libs - 16%

CPC - 14%

The parties are all almost exactly where they were on election night 2011 - whihc means 59 NDP seats again!

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/04/11/ndp-lead-all-parties-i...


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Good to see NDP stays alive in Quebec.

I knew they would vote only native Quebecker leader rather than non-Quebecker as always.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Quote:
“I think those of us that supported Tom were hoping and expecting that this would be the kind of reaction. That’s one of the reasons we chose him,” Mr. Christopherson said.

Mr. Christopherson acknowledged the challenge facing the party now is in Ontario, where the NDP won only 22 of the province’s 106 Commons seats in the May election.

“I think we’re going to see a turnaround in Ontario, but it’s not going to happen right away, it’s going to be a gradual build,” Mr. Christopherson said, admitting Mr. Mulcair is an unknown product so far in the country’s most populous province.

“Any new leader has the challenge of getting themselves known, and quite frankly you don’t really become a household name until you’re about two weeks into an election, whether that’s national or provincial, in my experience,” he said. “We have more in the Ontario caucus now than we had in the entire national caucus when I arrived in 2004. We’ve gained seats every election, and it certainly gets tougher with every success to move on to the next success, but we’re committed to it and I think there is going to be a very positive, favourable response to Tom Mulcair and his approach to offering an alternative government.”


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Ippurigakko wrote:

Good to see NDP stays alive in Quebec.

I knew they would vote only native Quebecker leader rather than non-Quebecker as always.

Except that last year Quebecers voted for "Toronto Jack" over Gilles Duceppe the pur-laine Quebecois icon


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Stockholm wrote:

Ippurigakko wrote:

Good to see NDP stays alive in Quebec.

I knew they would vote only native Quebecker leader rather than non-Quebecker as always.

Except that last year Quebecers voted for "Toronto Jack" over Gilles Duceppe the pur-laine Quebecois icon

And considering that the first ever NDP leader from Quebec actually presided over a drop of popular support in la belle province....


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Yes but Jack was Quebecker also, he was born in there.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

yes Ippurigakko, but there was 2 leadership candidates from Quebec, both born in Quebec.


Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011

janfromthebruce wrote:

yes Ippurigakko, but there was 2 leadership candidates from Quebec, both born in Quebec.

[/quote

 

Thomas Mulcair was born in Ottawa, Ontario:)


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Good news from New Brunswick, though I don't have access to the data.

Translation:

Quote:
Finally hope for the NDP: Wednesday, April 11, 2012

FREDERICTON - The New Democratic Party of New Brunswick is experiencing a resurgence in popularity in the city of St. John. To such an extent that it exceeds the Conservatives and Liberals in the polls.

http://www.capacadie.com/actualites/2012/4/11/enfin-de-l-espoir-pour-le-npd


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Very Far Away wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

yes Ippurigakko, but there was 2 leadership candidates from Quebec, both born in Quebec.

 

Thomas Mulcair was born in Ottawa, Ontario:)

 

Speaking of in terms of 2003: Layton + Ducasse?

 


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Quebec in this sense is like any other electorate the world over. They vote for people who understand them, talk to them and support their values. Just like Alberta.

Canadians outside Quebec like to spotlight this because at moments the rest of Canada and Quebec are out of touch.

What the NDP is trying to do is build a bridge here.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Or from another angle-- people in Quebec like those in the rest of Canada will vote for people who can communicate with them in their own language. The rest of Canada is not different-- Hello Stéphane?

Québec is very different from the rest of Canada in many ways no need to point to no-existant differences, I think.

Not trying to be mean here as many have this point of view but sure would be nice to bust the myth.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

I hope no one thinks that this means that all the Tories need to do is make Maxime Bernier their new leader and they can then expect to be competitive in Quebec!


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Stock, that goes without saying Wink


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Detail on the NB poll:

 

Quote:
Environics Poll Shows New Democrats in the Lead in Saint John: New Democrats 39%, PCs 33%, Liberals 28%

...

 

Environics Vice President Derek Leebosh said “The New Democrats have been gaining ground across Atlantic Canada in recent federal and provincial elections. In Nova Scotia and Newfoundland that growth started in urban areas, such as Halifax and St. John's. We are now seeing a similar trend to the NB New Democrats in Saint John. This is bolstered by the federal NDP's rise to official opposition status and the NB NDP's growing visibility.”

http://www.nbndp.ca/node/636

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Interesting about Iphone 4s apps that I created a poll and ask a question them for Federal thingy in polls,

Go to download "World's Opinion" click it and read it. Most of them from Ont/Quebec both 33% and Lib 50% and NDP 33% more than Cons only 17%, 18-24 67%, best PM Mulcair 67% and Harper 33%

ideological standpoints centre 83%, left 17% and right 0%

 

this poll is still ongoing 6% and remaining 94% then closed tonight or tomorrow


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Tks JW

This is absolutely fantastic what is happening in Saint John, NB. I have to keep pinching myself to make sure what is going on with the NDP both provincially and federally across the country is real, but it is. Just amazingly delightful. But it won't mean much unless we kick Harper out of the PMO.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Ipsos Reid - April 12, 2012

 

CON 34% (-3 from 37)
NDP 33% (+4 from 29)
LIB 21% (-2 from 23)
BQ 7% (same)
GRN 4% (same)

 

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative+popularity+falling+wake+recent+c...


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

whoop-dee-doo whoop-dee-doo whoop-dee-doo!


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

FYI, This latest set of polls showing the NDP tied with the Tories were all in field BEFORE anyone would have seen the new NDP ads introducing Mulcair...things could get better yet!


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Are there regionals?


Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011

Stockholm wrote:

FYI, This latest set of polls showing the NDP tied with the Tories were all in field BEFORE anyone would have seen the new NDP ads introducing Mulcair...things could get better yet!

 

They should. If they don`t, we have a problem. 

Cons have 34% of the votes even with Robocall and F-35 scandals.

I will feel good if NDP is 5% ahead of Cons in different polls.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Very Far Away wrote:

They should. If they don`t, we have a problem. 

Cons have 34% of the votes even with Robocall and F-35 scandals.

I will feel good if NDP is 5% ahead of Cons in different polls.

Yes. I'm still looking for the unambigious lead. I was hoping we'd be there this week. So this poll would have been more encouraging to me if it had been released last week. (Come on, next week!)


madmax
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Joined: Apr 15 2008
The Conservatives are developing a telfon skin. This skin has to be peeled off or they may continue endure many scandals and levels of incompetence and still maintain a strong lead. It worked for Mulroney. It worked for Bush.

adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Very Far Away wrote:
 

Cons have 34% of the votes even with Robocall and F-35 scandals.

And if we want to grasp the "even with", we have to keep this in mind: in effect, the Conservatives now are perceived by many as the only "governable" party vs the decimated Liberals and the untested NDP, much as the Chretien-era Liberals once were vs the decimated PCs (and NDP) and the untested Reform/Alliance.  Against that tableau, 34% is pretty ominously mediocre...


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

The Post isn't spinning this, so much as papering over with lies.

Headline: Conservative popularity sinks but Stephen Harper approval holds steady: poll

The data on Harper's approval is buried in paragraph 12:

Quote:
Meanwhile, 42% of Canadians polled approve of the job Harper is doing as prime minister. While that represents a drop of six points from March, Wright said the number is still extremely high.

"Holds steady"? "Extremely high"?

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

My opinion polls on apps (Iphone, Ipad1/2, Ipod):

Morning 

LIB 43%
NDP 29%
CON 14%
BQ   14%
GRN 0%

Tonight

NDP 40%
LIB 33%
CON 13%
GRN 7%
BQ 7%

 


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

madmax wrote:
The Conservatives are developing a telfon skin. This skin has to be peeled off or they may continue endure many scandals and levels of incompetence and still maintain a strong lead. It worked for Mulroney. It worked for Bush.

It didn't work forever for Mulroney. By the end of his second term he was trailing badly in the polls and felt compelled to resign.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Ippurigakko wrote:

Ipsos Reid - April 12, 2012

 

CON 34% (-3 from 37)
NDP 33% (+4 from 29)
LIB 21% (-2 from 23)
BQ 7% (same)
GRN 4% (same)

 

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative+popularity+falling+wake+recent+c...

I never saw Ipsos Reid as a pollster who ever gave much favourable polling to the NDP, so I'm surprised really. Don't you think it's interesting that that even pollsters who often give negative numbers are showing the NDP tied for 1st place?


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

One way of looking at this is to question what is the core support the Cons can count on no matter what and what is the undecided being redistributed.

Then look at what they have above that compared to what they used to have above that.

My guess is bedrock support for the Cons is about 25%. They are not far above that now.

Other parties may also be close to their bedrock.

It could be tough changing these numbers by much.

 

 


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