Latest polling thread - started April 10, 2012

Let's say NDP Core is about 15; Liberal is about 15; Con is about 25; Green is about 1; BQ is about 4% nationally

That means there are about 60% that we know what they are going to do.

That leaves 40% that can float between the parties but even massive success won't see any party get that. As well each party likely has a ceiling.

I would say the Liberals and the NDP have lower floors than the Cons but a higher ceiling-- fewer people who would never vote for the NDP or Liberals even-- for now.

I suspect the Cons ceiling is at 45% and the NDP perhaps now as high as 55% and the Liberals about 50% The Greens likely also to have a high ceiling since while few pay them attention if they had a great leader and policies few would be hostile to them-- they have little karma good or bad. I'd say the Greens have a ceiling perhaps as high as 40% and the BQ 14%

Given current politics-- it is unlikely that the Greens, BQ or Liberals will see anything remotely close to their ceiling but the NDP could certainly approach it and I would not be shocked to see the NDP at some point get within ten percent -- in other words the NDP could shoot as high as 45% under ideal conditions under the current political environment.

As well, I think under these conditions three parties could actually find themselves burning their core support actually going lower than what would now be their current floor: the Cons, the Liberals and the BQ. The only difference is that for the Cons to go close or even below what I would currently call their floor a new right wing party would have to emerge. The NDP on the other hand could consolidate a floor support that could grow as high as 25% over the next several years, especially if the other parties' floors drop.

That right wing party could be a new Wild-Rose like -- very right wing party coming up over anger at some of the wasteful spending or lack of enough progress on a right wing agenda. That party could get some 20% nationally and over time take a portion of the current floor of the Cons. This would not surprise after the right has governed for a while to see a split. Alternately a right wing party slightly to the left of the hawkish and scandal-prone Cons could emerge. That could be the Liberals under a John-Manley-like leader.

Before you dismiss the Liberals consider the landscape: they are at sea but not because they are so hated (by the general population not the NDP which does tend to hate them), their problem is poor leadership and irrelevance as well as a strong NDP. Rather than reclaim the centre, they could follow the BC Liberal's lead and move to the right and pick up the old Progressive Conservative territory that the Cons could give up as they are seen as more of a right-wing, scandal prone party. The Cons could end up being the ones to shrink to a rump in the next election and the Liberals-- if they installed a right-of-centre leader-- one perhaps from Western Canada -- could retake the right section.

Before you dismiss this entirely, consider that stranger things have happened; the distance for the Liberals is not really that great and it is the Cons who are in control of a shop-worn perhaps government. It also could not only be their best play, it could be their only play. Remember Jim Prentice? He could be the guy to do that. He was a person who came from the PC ranks and did not fit into the Conservative party but could easily rebrand the Liberals as a right party that does not have the extremism of the Conservatives. You would then see a real battle between those Liberals and the NDP for the next government with the Harper Cons trying to hold on to a balance of power.

The reason I lay this out is to underline that the whole landscape could change radically overnight. Also nobody should write off any major party right now-- or consider them to be without risk.

The NDP on its side is likely united at least until it becomes government. But if it governs too far from its roots a party to the left of it could emerge with little notice...

Once you see the type of change that has happened to the Liberal party, you have to recognize that this makes major changes to other parties more likely, especially as the right is a recent incarnation of its own.

Some things to consider-- pile on!

Your last post is excellent, Sean in Ottawa. It made me think about so many different possibilities that may happen in the next 3 years. 

To his credit Mulcair has largely shown promising sensitivity to the risk of fracture. Whether that's down to tactical protection of his left flank or conviction, we don't know yet, and we may not know until we form government.

One added thought that may be pegged as Conservative "black ops." I think part of the Conservative playbook against the NDP will be a whisper campaign that the party has abandoned its principles. Of course members will be voicing authentic concerns that we remain true to our core values, but we should also expect a proliferation of "concern trolls" whose purpose will be to suppress our vote.

Ok sad day

My research iOS tablet computer polls

CON 33%
NDP 26%
LIB 24%
GRN 12%
BQ 5%

Best PM
Harper 45%
Mulcair 40%
May 10%
Rae 5%

Centre 76%
Left and Right tied 12%

42% ongoing and 58% remaining

Dont worry wait till 58% closing.

Iphone, Ipad 1,2,3 and Ipod apps called "World's Opinion" you have download it and click it every question and submit there graph stuff.

I agree with Sean, I thought it was not worth taking seriously. You never have any idea how people find out about one of them. It has no control elements. Don't give it any thought.

They were also first to catch the last nationwide NDP surge in support

;;

Sean in Ottawa, it seems that Chantal Hebert read your post yesterday:) This is what she says today:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1161314--hebert-why-stephen-harper-s-biggest-battles-will-be-with-conservatives

The over 40% happened in January 1991 when McLaughlin was leader (it was 41% to be specific), and we were looking at having three provincial govts in the near future.  Maclean's Magazine had the NDP on the cover: "NDP on a Roll", if you can find it.  

Ole habits die hard, I suppose.

Say good nite to the Liberals - their long days in the sun are done!

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/neck-and-neck-federal-r...

Two federal polls were released last week showing a very tight race between the governing Conservatives and the opposition New Democrats. While the two surveys differ on what kind of momentum the Tories have, both show that the NDP is making significant gains, primarily at the expense of the Liberal Party.

The Léger poll is the most recent, and is also the most striking. It places the New Democrats ahead of the Conservatives with 33% to 32%, a gain of seven points for the NDP since Léger's last national survey ofFeb. 28-Mar. 5. The Tories, meanwhile, are down two points.

The Liberals slip five points to 19%, back to where they were in May 2011. The Greens are up one to 8% while the Bloc Québécois is down one to 7%.

The New Democrats lead in Atlantic Canada with 49% (+18), Quebec with 47% (+20), and British Columbia with 34% (unchanged). They are running second in the Prairies and Ontario with 26% support in each (a loss of seven points in the Prairies and a gain of three in Ontario).

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If we take the best and worst regional results for each party, we get a range of between 128 and 153 seats for the Conservatives on these numbers, with the New Democrats sitting between 108 and 143 seats. The Liberal range is between 24 and 46 seats - even a best-case-scenario results in only a minor gain of seats for the Liberals.

The New Democrats are only slightly above the 31% the party achieved under Jack Layton in May 2011, but the extra point or two makes all the difference, particularly when the Tories are down six to nine points. The NDP is in a strong position on the two coasts and looks capable of keeping (or even increasing) their representation in Quebec. But the Conservatives still have the advantage thanks to their wide lead in Ontario and the clump of seats they hold claim to between B.C. and Manitoba. Until the NDP can start to whittle away the Tory holdings in the West and in Ontario, they will have no hope of toppling the Conservatives without the help of the Liberal Party.

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- and from the comment section

It is becoming increasingly clear that the NDP has replaced the Liberals as the potential alternative for the Conservatives. This is at least true for 3 of the 6 regions of Canada. A few more points in Ontario and the NDP will complete the circle...

I believe Ontario will be the most important province for both Cons and NDP in the next elections. If NDP can`t reach 35% in Ontario, it`s almost impossible to have majority.

Ontario Resuts in the last federal election:

CP: 44.4% (77 seats)

NDP: 25.6% (22 seats)

LP: 25.3% (11 seats)

Last Harris Decima Poll (Ontario)

CP: 41% 

NDP: 26%

LP: 24%

Last Leger Poll (Ontario)

CP: 39%

NDP: 26%

LP: 25%

These 2 polls show that support for CP is still very strong and NDP and Liberals have almost the same % of votes in Ontario.

The key is to get less people to vote Conservative.  It really is that simple and that complex.

I they didn't lead in 1967 but were 2nd ahead of the Tories. This was before Stanfield became leader. I think that the CCF briefly led the Gallup poll in 1943

That Gallup figure wouldn't be surprising as--shades of Audrey in 1990--an Ontario echo-effect...