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Latest Alberta poll - created april 20, 2012

NorthReport
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NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
NorthReport
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  • The Wildrose Party leads with 43 per cent followed by the PCs at 36 per cent.
  • The Liberals at 11 per cent.
  • NDP at nine per cent.
  • Alberta Party at one per cent.

NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
Take a look at the previous election results - this looks like another looming disaster for the Liberals

2008 Election Results & Current Party Standings Political Parties2008Voter %Current Progressive Conservative 72 52.66% 68 Liberal 9 26.37% 9 New Democratic Party 2 8.52% 2 Wildrose Alliance 0 6.77% 3 Green Party 0 4.58% 0 Independant 0 1.11% 1 Vacant - - -

jerrym
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I have my doubts about this poll because it shows PCs ahead in Calgary but WRA ahead in Edmonton, possibly due to small sample size in the two cities compared to the provincial sample size. Commonsense (has it ever been wrong - oops, Quebec 2011) says it should be the other way around.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/04/15/albertavotes2012...

In Calgary, the Tories have a slim four-point lead over Wildrose at 45 per cent support to 41 per cent. In Edmonton, it's the Wildrose Party with a slight lead of 37 per cent to 31 per cent.


NorthReport
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One person's prediction and the reasons for it.

 

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-preview.html

 

 


NorthReport
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NDP now in 3rd place with 13%   Wildrose Party to win majority in Alberta election: latest poll results

 

 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/wildrose-party-expected-w...


NorthReport
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Oh, my!

Party / 2008 / Forum / Change

WR - 7% / 41% / Up 35%

PCs - 53% / 32% / Down 21%

NDP -  9% / 13% / Up 4% - pitiful, why bother even running

 

In Edmonton

NDP - 23%

 

Seats

Party / 2008 / Forum / Change

WR / 0 seats / 62 seats / Up 62 seats

PCs - 72 seats / 19 seats / down 53 seats

NDP - 4 seats / 2 seats

Other - 9 seats /2 seats

 

Total - 8 seats

 

Required for majority - 45 seats

 

 

 

Wildrose Party set for sweeping majority, latest poll shows

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-party-set-for-swee...


Howard
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The WRA could come first in Edmonton. It's not impossible.


Lou Arab
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I find today's Forum Poll very encouraging:

Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

 

Edmonton

Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1

It also shows that NDP at 15% in Southern Alberta, good news for Lethbridge West I expect.

The NDP vote from 2008 is holding far better than the Liberals and Tories.


nicky
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Abacus, published yesterday, also had the NDP quite high in southern Alberta at 17%, boding well for Lethbridge West.

I was told by an Ontario organizer yesterday that his sources fromm Alberta are confident about winning 6 seats and  the seventh would in fact be in Lethbridge.


Policywonk
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The more seats we win the more likely an minority, as the Liberals aren't likely to win more than a couple of seats.


Policywonk
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Lou Arab wrote:

I find today's Forum Poll very encouraging:

Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

 

Edmonton

Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1

It also shows that NDP at 15% in Southern Alberta, good news for Lethbridge West I expect.

The NDP vote from 2008 is holding far better than the Liberals and Tories.

I think it still indicates a WR majority.


NorthReport
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But with all the workers there are in Alberta, this is not good enough for the AB NDP 

 

Alberta  - Seats

Year / Event / Pcs / NDP / WR / Libs

2012 / GE / 61 / 4 / 17 / 5 - NDP increased seat count by 100%, from 2 seats to 4 seats

2008 / GE / 72 / 0 / 2 / 9

Alberta - Popular Vote 

Year / Event / PCs / NDP / WR / Libs

2012 / GE /  44 / 10 / 34 / 10

Oct 12 / ENV / 45 / 12 / 29 / 13 - NDP up 2% since the election

Aug / ENV / 43 / 13 / 26 / 14

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics---Alberta-Political-sta...


 

 

 

 


jerrym
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Historically, the seat distribution in Alberta has been nowhere near the urban/rural population split, which suited the PCs fine until the last election because they had more support in rural areas. There was even a 1991 ruling by the Supreme Court to "allow population variances between provincial ridings of up to 25 per cent above or below the average"(www.albertaviews.ab.ca/2012/04/04/the-value-of-your-vote-march-2010/) - thus creating a potential difference of 50%.

Now that the PCs are more of an urban party compared to the Wildrose Party, they could redistrict ridings to more equitably distribute the Alberta population between ridings based on the 2011 census in order to favour themselves than the Wildrose Party? Since NDP support is still primarily urban this could also indirectly benefit the NDP. 

 

 


David Young
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jerrym wrote:

Historically, the seat distribution in Alberta has been nowhere near the urban/rural population split, which suited the PCs fine until the last election because they had more support in rural areas. There was even a 1991 ruling by the Supreme Court to "allow population variances between provincial ridings of up to 25 per cent above or below the average"(www.albertaviews.ab.ca/2012/04/04/the-value-of-your-vote-march-2010/) - thus creating a potential difference of 50%.

Now that the PCs are more of an urban party compared to the Wildrose Party, they could redistrict ridings to more equitably distribute the Alberta population between ridings based on the 2011 census in order to favour themselves than the Wildrose Party? Since NDP support is still primarily urban this could also indirectly benefit the NDP. 

 

 

Wasn't the last Alberta election fought on new electoral boundaries?  If so, they won't be changed untill after the next census, won't they?

 


NorthReport
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Wow!

Support for Alberta premier down 25 points: poll

 


http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/support-for-alberta-premier-down-25-point...


jerrym
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The poll has some other very interesting results. Believe it or not, for all of the criticism I have read of Brian Mason on this thread (I am not a Mason defender as I don't know enough about Alberta politics) he actually has the highest net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among an admittedly low level of competition with +5% while as mentioned above Redford is -25%, Wildrose Smith is +3%, and Liberal Sherman at -3%. 

The NDP at 16% are only 10% behind the PCs (Wildrose is at 38% and the Libs at 13%), which must be for the first time in decades if not for ever. In Edmonton, the NDP (26%) is statistically tied with Wildrose (27%) and the PCs (24%).

http://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.1181379!/httpFile/file.pdf


Aristotleded24
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jerrym wrote:
The poll has some other very interesting results. Believe it or not, for all of the criticism I have read of Brian Mason on this thread (I am not a Mason defender as I don't know enough about Alberta politics) he actually has the highest net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among an admittedly low level of competition with +5% while as mentioned above Redford is -25%, Wildrose Smith is +3%, and Liberal Sherman at -3%. 

The NDP at 16% are only 10% behind the PCs (Wildrose is at 38% and the Libs at 13%), which must be for the first time in decades if not for ever. In Edmonton, the NDP (26%) is statistically tied with Wildrose (27%) and the PCs (24%).

There are a few reasons. Chief among them is that the PCs are governing like Wildrose anyways, so people don't see the point and will vote for the real Wildrose over the fake Wildrose. As for the polling numbers, in Edmonton people know that they can vote NDP without the danger of electing a Wildrose MLA. In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).


Lou Arab
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Aristotleded24 wrote:

...In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).

Well, I would argue that 14% in Calgary is not nothing. It's our best polling result there is quite some time, and up considerably from the 5% the NDP recieved there in the 2012 election.  At 14%, the NDP is essentially tied with the Liberals in Calgary.  They would start to become competitive in a seat or two there, although it might be a stretch to say that they could actually win. 

As for Lethbridge, the local candidate (Shannon Phillips) has shown no signs of slowing down and her riding association seems to be growing every time I look up.  She often tells me she wants to have a bigger membership in Lethbridge than we have in Edmonton Strathcona, and I fully expect her to reach that goal quite soon.


Lou Arab
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In addition to the Think HQ poll posted above, the GLobe and Mail released some different numbers from Trend Research:

Wildrose: 34%
PC: 32%
NDP: 17%
Lib: 14%

The interesting thing about the Trend numbers, if they are to be believed, is that they show that the PC bleeding has been entirely to the left.  The PC's lost 12% since the election, with the NDP going up 7%, the Liberals up 4% and the Wildrose exactly where they were on election day.

I've done some crude seat projections based on these two polls.  For what it's worth, here they are:

THINK HQ:

Wildrose: 61
PC: 13
NDP: 8
Lib: 5

TREND RESEARCH:

Wildrose: 42
PC: 30
NDP: 9
LIB: 6


Policywonk
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Lou Arab wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

...In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).

Well, I would argue that 14% in Calgary is not nothing. It's our best polling result there is quite some time, and up considerably from the 5% the NDP recieved there in the 2012 election.  At 14%, the NDP is essentially tied with the Liberals in Calgary.  They would start to become competitive in a seat or two there, although it might be a stretch to say that they could actually win. 

As for Lethbridge, the local candidate (Shannon Phillips) has shown no signs of slowing down and her riding association seems to be growing every time I look up.  She often tells me she wants to have a bigger membership in Lethbridge than we have in Edmonton Strathcona, and I fully expect her to reach that goal quite soon.

Considering the membership numbers I recall in Edmonton Strathcona, that would be impressive.


jerrym
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In an Angus Reid poll of 7,091 voters on the popularity of premiers, Alberta Premier Alison Redford's approval rating has fallen from 47% in December to 29% now, while Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith has 53%, with NDP leader Brian Mason and Liberal leader Raj Sherman tied at 34%.

Among opposition leaders Dix tied for third place with Ontario's Andrea Horvath behind Lorraine Michael (NDP - Newfoundland) with 61% and Danielle Smith (Alberta -Wildrose) at 53%. 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48733/saskatchewans-wall-keeps-place-as-...

Obviously, many of the NDP leaders across the country are doing well and Dix should be premier next month. I leave it to Albertan NDPers to decide how well Brian Mason is doing. 


janfromthebruce
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Redford year one: New poll shows sharp slide for PCs Conservative support has 'disappeared'

The Leger Marketing poll, commissioned by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal, shows the Wildrose Party under the leadership of Danielle Smith now leading Alberta's political landscape with the support of 37 per cent of decided voters, compared to 29 per cent for Redford's Tories.

The Liberals under Raj Sherman have seen their support rise to 17 per cent, while Brian Mason's NDP have climbed to 14 per cent.

SNIP

Redford, Alberta's premier since winning the PC leadership in October 2011, has an approval rating of only 26 per cent and a disapproval rating of 60 per cent.

Wildrose's Smith has the highest approval rating at 39 per cent and a matching disapproval rate of 39 per cent.

Sherman's approval rating stands at 28 per cent, while 31 per cent of respondents disapprove of his performance in the past year. The NDP's Mason is the only leader to have an approval rating higher than his disapproval level, 30 to 27 per cent.


jerrym
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janfromthebruce wrote:

Redford year one: New poll shows sharp slide for PCs Conservative support has 'disappeared'

The Leger Marketing poll, commissioned by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal, shows the Wildrose Party under the leadership of Danielle Smith now leading Alberta's political landscape with the support of 37 per cent of decided voters, compared to 29 per cent for Redford's Tories.

The Liberals under Raj Sherman have seen their support rise to 17 per cent, while Brian Mason's NDP have climbed to 14 per cent.

SNIP

Redford, Alberta's premier since winning the PC leadership in October 2011, has an approval rating of only 26 per cent and a disapproval rating of 60 per cent.

Wildrose's Smith has the highest approval rating at 39 per cent and a matching disapproval rate of 39 per cent.

Sherman's approval rating stands at 28 per cent, while 31 per cent of respondents disapprove of his performance in the past year. The NDP's Mason is the only leader to have an approval rating higher than his disapproval level, 30 to 27 per cent.

While the slightly higher ranking of the Liberals is within the sampling margin or error of the two parties, the higher percentage support fort the Liberals could simply be due to the Trudeau honeymoon having a small halo effect on the Liberal brand. If that is the case, I expect it to wear off as the Trudeau honeymoon dissipates. 


janfromthebruce
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I thought the same thing jerrym.


Lou Arab
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New Leger poll of the Alberta political landscape:

WRP: 34 (-3 from April, same as 2012 elxn)
PC: 33 (+6 from April, -11 from 2012)
NDP: 15 (+1 from April, +5 from 2012)
Lib: 15 (-2 from April, +5 from 2012)

 


knownothing
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Aristotleded24
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NorthReport
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What else is new, eh! Laughing

Quote:
Public support falling for governing Tories, poll find

When Albertans were asked who they would vote for if a provincial election were held now, the Wildrose Party would have the support of 33 per cent of decided voters while the PCs are at 31 per cent.

The Liberals are at 18 per cent support and the NDP are backed by 14 per cent of voters.

The numbers are essentially unchanged from the last Leger poll in September, though the Liberals have enjoyed a slight uptick.


http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Public+support+falling+govern...


NorthReport
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