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If (I know its a remote chance) the blowup about Smith's refusal to sanction her homophobic, anti-abortion, and climate change deniers (including herself) leads to a minority government situation, the NDP (and possibly Liberals) might be able to demand a mixed member proportional representation system and a urban-rural constituency population size that is roughly equal in size in return for supporting the PCs. This might not be as impossible as it seems since it would also tend to favour the PCs now that their rural base with their small populations has disappeared and they are fighting to survive in the cities.
The polls seem to be showing an increased polarization between the WRA (winning a majority) and the PCs (losing big time), IMO.
A family feud that doesn't concern your family (emphasis mine):
Like.
You're having trouble standing on your three legs...?
Oh, low blow.
No Blow Low
We better stop this
Sure thing Danielle!
Alberta Election 2012: Controversial candidates victims of character assassination — Smith (Video)http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Alberta+Election+2012+Controversial+...
Final poll of 2,000 by Forum points to a big Wild Rose win and a string NDP showing:
Province-wide its WR 41%, PCs 32%, NDP 13%, Libs 10%
In Edmonton its PC31%, WR 30%, NDP 23%, Libs 14%
The NDP is also up to 15% in the rural south which includes Lethbridge. Numbers like that could mean going from 2 seats in Edmonton to as many as 6 or 7 and a possible dark-horse pick-up in Lethbridge West!
http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/71110...
So WR is on track to win 71% of seats with 41% of the popular vote. Who calls this representative democracy?
God I hope the polls are wrong and there is a 2004-esque last-minute swing away from Wildrose over the weekend. Wildrose will be a destabilizing force in Confederation on par with the PQ - perhaps even more so in the present climate.
How is Danielle Smith any more "destabilizing" than Ralph Klein?
The PQ in spite of differences always wanted to find accomodation of some sort with the rest of Canada-- just as equals. The PQ shared a social vision that many Canadians did as well. The difference was the national vision. The PQ respected Canada and always said so -- it just wanted to find independence for Quebec.
Wildrose's vision of Alberta is almost as separate as the PQ vision of Quebec was. WR shares almost nothing with the rest of Canada and is hostile in ways that the PQ never was. Wildrose does not respect or like the national vision of Canada.
The PQ was happy for the rest of Canada to be cohesive -- it just wanted to sit outside and work with it. Wildrose wants to destroy that cohesiveness and sit inside the ruins of it. The PQ was assertive while the Wildrose is bitter.
I do consider WR to be far more dangerous a force and less reachable.
I find today's Forum Poll very encouraging:
Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2
Edmonton
Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1
It also shows that NDP at 15% in Southern Alberta, good news for Lethbridge West I expect.
The NDP vote from 2008 is holding far better than the Liberals and Tories.
Right, of course.
What are the odds on a PC wrong-winner government? Wildrose gets more votes, but they are hived in the rural seats, and the PC win enough narrow urban victories to get a wrong-winner majority?
Could make it superficially a little awkward for electoral reformers. But not really, as long as Wildrose doesn't have over 50% of the votes: a democratic voting system would result in a non-Wildrose majority in the legislature. A PC-Liberal Coalition government, perhaps? Raj Sherman would get his old job back?
I hope it goes without saying for many voters?
Sean wrote:
The PQ was happy for the rest of Canada to be cohesive -- it just wanted to sit outside and work with it. Wildrose wants to destroy that cohesiveness and sit inside the ruins of it. The PQ was assertive while the Wildrose is bitter.
I don't know about this. Rene Levesque's beau risque in 1984 essentially amounted to advising(successfully) his followers to ally with, among other dubious characters, right-wing western regionalists, in order to put Mulroney in power. This coalition stayed intact for the 1988 election, which ushered in the Mulroney/Reagan FTA. Not exactly remembered as a high-point for the progressive vision of Canada.
And the people voting for those western regionalists in '84 and '88 were the same ones who later became the base for the Reform Party, essentially the foreunners of Stephen Harper and Danielle Smith. Levesque was no babe in the political woods, so I'm pretty sure he knew what kind of people he was allying with.
Ah yes, how soon people forget how popular Mulroney and the FTA were in Quebec in the 1980s. Perhaps not surprising given that Quebec sovereigntists saw the economic future of an independent Quebec as one where closer links with the United States would be pursued, as opposed to the ROC.
I also wonder what impact the election of Wildrose might have on Alberta's neighbours, particularly British Columbia. I suspect that Christy Clark won't be quite so quick to embrace Danielle Smith as she was Alison Redford, or as Gordon Campbell was to Ralph Klein (remember the joint cabinet meetings? TILMA?) The Gateway project will be an axis of serious tension between our two westernmost provinces - British Columbians are increasingly realizing that they are being asked to bear all the risks while Alberta reaps all the benefits. The election of Wildrose might strengthen the BC NDP's hand going into next year's election, as they could credibly make the argument that BC needs a government that will stand up to Stephen Harper (and Alberta) over Gateway and other issues.
Danielle Smith: Yup! (Again) Just like Ralph Klein, only a 'New Age' Journalist and Broadcaster hired as a face person to sell the masses on a NEW Conservative party. Whew! Conservative extremists for leadership and established Conservatives for Opposition. How’s that for complete power and control? New age politics, hypothetically; "Let’s get two women as candidates representing the old and the new, we'll put all the corporate big money behind them both and we can't loose. People will actually think they have a choice." ...I wonder who the real policy makers are?
A really elaborate concept, I admit, even with the popularity of Role Playing Games. But it would make a good book. A guy could set it in Africa, south Asia maybe? ...naw, they don't have to do that there. I wonder if it would sell here? Guess we'll find out tomorrow.
Speaking of buying votes, there's a rumor floating around that Danielle and Alison had discussed using the "Not-With-Standing" clause to open the bars on Monday, so they could just buy “drinks.”
Chuckle! (Sorry, it's and election right! People can say anything they want).
The Liberals are actually coming up with some good reasons why not to strategically vote PC to stop the Wildrose:
Ted Morton, leader of the officlal opposition
A cartoon I recall from that time...
Mulroney is a doctor, showing Parizeau an eye chart on which the letters spell "free trade". Parizeau recites the letters as "sovereignty".
Doubtful. Morton is going to lose his seat and lose badly. All of his supporters decamped for Wildrose a long time ago, hence his pitiful showing in the last leadership race.
Craig Oliver on CTV's QP today said Smith will give Alberta budget surpluses back to the taxpayers, will erect Harper's firewall around Alberta, and is against using Alberta revenues for equalization - I think we're discussing this on another thread.
An Alberta pundit on that same show said Alberta has a history of going crazy every 25 or 30 years and electing a governing party with little or no experience and they learn on the job.
ETA: the QP power panel talked about the ramifications of an NDP win in BC, Wild Rose in Alberta, the PQ in Quebec, and the Liberals in Ontario - which makes it just about impossible for Harper to govern to everyone's satisfaction.
At least it looks like more people will be voting than last time, when we set a new all time low voter turnout.
And we also managed to get to thread #4 on the topic of an Alberta provincial election. I'm curious as to how many threads the last Alberta election managed to generate here.
Yikes!
The day I have been dreading has arrived - there will be lots of pain, so let's get this over with as quickly as possible.
Intriguing possibilities. A "wrong-winner" PC-Lib coalition would be mathematically possible too. What would the L-Governor do in such a situation?
I though it looked like the Liberals would be wiped out tooday. CBC Newsworld had someone discussing the possibility of the PCs working with the NDP - as strange as that sounds!!!
Last night I heard someone - again on CBC - asking Liberal and NDP voters to vote PC to stop the Wild Rose. Sounds like desperation.
None of this will be necessary. The WRA are going to win a large majority tonight. Hopefully the NDP will pick up some seats and be an effective thorn in their side. Whatever is left of the PCs will wither before the next election. The Alberta Liberals may be shut out. If they are, their fortunes will depend partially on what happens at the national level and partially whether the NDP makes a solid investment in Calgary and environs or not. I predict the Liberals will win 1-2 seats. The Alberta Party is done or it may become the new Liberal Party. They will win 0 seats. Here goes...
It could very well be that the only way for the NDP in Alberta to grow is for the Wildrose to decimate all other opposition until only the NDP is left standing, and thus wins the first right of response to the government by default. Kind of how the NDP took off in Newfoundland, federally in the 1980s, and even provincially in Alberta in the 1980s. (Remember Ray Martin went from 2 seats to 16 in 1986.)
No, it sounds just like babble.
It sounds just like all the babblers who insist that social democrats in the United States have to vote for Obama to stop Romney. And it's the same old refrain, whether the incumbent president is a Republican or a Democrat.
That 1980s advantage was not held. One reason was that the PCs decimated the NDP in advertising expenditures in the next election but there were many other reasons as well. Decore came a lot closer to scaring the PCs out of office, although he had a hard time setting up the differences between himself and the PC party