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People in northern N.S. are probably still resentful of the increase in the HST, which drove so many people to shop across the border in N.B. Many voters had broken with party loyalty to vote NDP, only to feel betrayed by Dexter and the party that has backed his policies.
The NDP govt gets endless plaudits from the media for good governance. It was widely accepted that the HST increase had to be done. The NDP never paid a price here for that reversal on taxes. Nor did they promise it was short term only.
The HST increase is mentioned only in passing as history. The opposition parties of course bring it up, and will continue to do so in the coming election. No one takes them seriously.
The NDP is hated and wont be able to elect anyone for a generation in SW Nova Scotia for ending the expensive [vacationers] ferry to the US. But even in northern NS the HST barely registers.
So 3 years later, you're willing to accept as an excuse that a supposedly social democratic government has a legitimate "need" to keep making severe cuts to education so they can protect themselves with a tax cut no one was demanding?
Anyone in Nova Scotia will have seen, the Premeir, the Minister of Education, and other Ministers saying how the school board used 'targeted funding' earmarked for the libraries, which the Baord allocated for other purposes.
Bullshit.
There are a limited number of actual targetted funding envelopes, and libraries are not one of them. Everything else, including libraries and unspecialized classroom eduction are just indicative figures in the allocation. It is EXPECTED that the Boards will diverge widely from them in making their budgets. A necessity under the NDP government that has been hugely heightened since the demands for cuts are so steep, and the figures dont add up.
Ironically, the 'envelopes' that do get targetted funding serve to undermine the school boards' room for budgeting. For example- special education in this Board gets $22m in seperate targetted funding. But even paring things down steeply, to meet minimum required standards they cannot budget less than $27m. And of cource, those indicative figures allocated for special education are only $22m. The shortfall difference of $5m is WAY more than the entire libraries budget.
And its like that right down the line with the REAL targetted finding- the Boards MUST fill the mandate, and they cannot do it with the targetted funding amount. So they have to rob the rest from some [already very stressed] function that is NOT targetted funding, like libararies, or classroom teachers.
Special needs education is enormously expensive and the numbers of students in it is rising MUCH faster than population. So much for the governments 'budget cuts according to population declineè.
Result: classroom teachers reduction four times greater than enrollment reduction from population decline. And total elimination of libraries- which now that the government says thist cannot be done, will have to mean more teacher reductions [salaries are 85% of budget]. And this with administration cuts, maintenance cuts, and custodial cuts many times greater than the 1.7% pop decline.
Tax cuts paid for off our backs.
Dexter Delays Fracking Decision - until after the next election. A 'sensitive and charged' issue to be sure, considering Mulcair was next door in NB urging people to rise up against fracking. No need for the casual observer to wonder if he'll be repeating that message for the benefit of Nova Scotians anytime soon.
Here's something personal.
I'm getting a surprising amount of pushback and hostility when I run into Dippers I know.
It's like there is this divide. There are my friends with whom I almost universally share a basic opinion of this government and what it means to us as Dippers [most of us long ago not being the least bit active]. And there are a number more who I dont know as well or just meet, who easily fall into the same general opinion sharing.
And then there are the Dippers who I know and who take some degree of offense about my opinions. Some of these people are habitually uncritical, some are not. The ones who are more inclined to be critical [over anything] are not very likely to be hostile.... just understandably taking exception with me.
It has been several years since I have been active IN the NDP. Being engaged in the leadership race is the only even partial exception to that... and even there I did not get involved with a campaign.
But the NDP is the government, and I am pretty active and to a degree public around a couple issues. So I'm around Dippers a lot anyway, as well as Dippers who I dont see but know where I stand.
Yesterday I got ambushed by a long time friend who I worked with a lot. The whole thing made me sad. And that it has already been going like this. Got a provacative prod at a school board meeting from an MLA who I like and had not personally directed anything at.
And so it goes.
Survey sent to NS NDP members in March:
The party does follow-up on these, giving the results from those who answered. There is a reason we did not get an answer this time.
Note the loaded 'ask' of the first question: should we not keep our promise?
We made a pre-election promise not to raise taxes. If it was really a question it would be asking whether we need to go back and rectify that? Do people who vote for the NDP need that to vote NDP again?
Raising the HST was not sold as a temporary move, and there was and has remained a broad consensus it was necessary. The only ones who have shown any inclination to wave this arond are the sad sack opposition parties and cranks who wold never vote NDP anyway.
But all of a sudden, as soon as Dexter floats it, defenders of the faith treat it as if it was an acknowledged long standing political necessity.
But really interesting is the last question:
Should we consult widely about whether to reduce the HST, or just do it?
Already, when that was written, there is no question if the HST was going to be reduced. The brain trust had already decided that.
But there is the timing question. And its funny, but the so-called "survey" is clearly tilted towards the "Consult widely" choice.
This is what the Graham Steel on the road dog and pony show has done for the other big "questions". You ask Nova Scotians what you know enough of them will tell you the answer you want to hear. We listened. Now we do.
And as far as the "survey" goes, the Consult widely "choice" is the one that is guaranteed to sound best to the membership.
What a nice coincidence.
So this was their original communications management plan for reducing the HST. Makes sense. It has worked well before. Reducing the HST isnt part of this year's budget. Lots of time to run that one around, who is going to say we dont want a tax cut?
But they obviously changed their mind how to roll this out.
"Oh, that survey. Oh well."
Maybe the communications roll out for reducing the HST was changed primarily for reasons of managing the general public opinion.
But another serious 'communications issue' was bound to turn up.
Suppose it was done in the order of first this year's budget with yet more really deep cuts, then you go around 'asking' Nova Scotians whether the HST should be reduced.
One group that will be speaking up when asked is NDP members and advocates for education and social justice issues... often the same people wearing different hats. And some of them you already primed by asking them to think about it in the "survey" above.
So, likely "our government" felt that it was better to wrap it all up now as a done deal.
And throw in the tax cuts, [now] also something we supposedly always needed to do.
The government did a good job of staying out of sight last week.
The school boards from around the province started announcing their cuts late in the week. And this week we are supposed to get the results from the government's overseer of the board whose deep cuts Dexter said were just playing games.
Presumably we'll get the rest of the Boards announcing their cuts.
And then the tweaked government communications strategy will be....
NS NDP Chooses Austerity Management as its Agenda
Those of you around here in Fall of 2009 might remember an exchange between myself and members of Halifax Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
I took issue with their characterization that there was nothing more to the new governments' fiscal situation messaging than buying into the continent wide ideological hysteria about debt. I meade the point that there was a real long term structural issue. As the government said: since the early Nineties government expenditures had been rising steadily with steady increases in gas royalty and equalization revenues. Those revenues had now been flat and declining for several years, and were guaranteed to decrease more.
That is a structural deficit. No two ways about it.
But in discussions among the base, this government and its legion of inside cheerleaders has turned the necessity to slay the budget into slay the budget and cut taxes..... without skipping a beat, and with no discussion whatsoever.
Who wants discussion when its convenient to just act as if everything is a self-evident necessity?
When the Budget comes in next year there will be no deficit.
There was a political and fiscal choice in how that was done, and this govermnet chose the one that completely ditched social democracy- even social democracy in tough times.
Fuck the social democracy side, we'll just go with the tough times and aren't we good managers?
Coming into the election year of 2013 with the deficit already gone came with a very steep price: austerity budgeting on steroids.
The slaying of the deficit could have been phased over 3 years instead of 2, which would substantially mitigate the depth of the cuts.
In that case the government would next year be presenting a budget that brings the end of the deficit spending, and go the people of Nova Scotia as the government who ended the structural deficit inherited from Liberals and Tories, while moderating the cuts to the social fabric as much as possible.
"And now we can get to work on Nova Scotia in the 21st Century." Or whatever.
This government has got nothing but accolades from the MSM for its fiscal management, no one has forgotten how we got here, and the two opposition parties are hapless half-wits.
Nahh... who wants that?
Fuck social democracy. Lets go for the big prize: the bad ass managers of austerity.
Slaying the deficit isn't good enough. We need to cut taxes too. Most all, we need to give back the two points of the HST we raised when we came in.
That and a bunch more of tax cuts, and being able to throw money at the Irvings and buying other expensive jobs, means that the cuts to education [and health next] will have to go deeper and last longer.
Ending the deficit spending in 2013-2014, we have to end it now. AND, the really brutal part, those cuts need to extend at least two or three years into the next mandate to pay for the tax cuts.
When its all over "we" will presided over the cutting of social spending to fit playing along with cutting government revenues.
And do that when we had the political capital, and the choice, to do the much easier job of cutting social spending to fit levelled government revenues.
Yes, it will be interesting to see how the Department of Education overseer alternatively guides the Chignecto board cuts. Education Minister Ramona Jennex said the cuts would largely be implemented by attrition, not high-profile pink slips to school librarians as with the Chignecto board.
If there is one tell-tale sign that these cuts go beyond falling enrollment, it is that the class size cap has been moved from 25 students to 27 last year and now to 29 this year. 29 and 27 students per class is just too many in my opinion. The NDP needs to commit to getting class sizes back down as a priority.
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/02/10/nova-scotia-cuts-funding-for-school-b...
The problem with the Dexter NDP gov is that while "Back to Balance" fiscal austerity has, perhaps understandably, been made the first priority, tax-cuts have been made the next priority.
The NDP has already delivered considerable tax-cuts in their first 3 years (Large Corporation, Small Business, Surtax, HST off home heating), all redistributing money back to the wealthy, and then has enshrined a further 2% HST-cut now passed into law to follow in a second mandate.
Meanwhile education, health and other services take successive cuts with no pledge to reverse them.
With the NS NDP running a program mix of fiscal austerity and tax-cutting -- Chicago School BS -- it doesn't leave much room for the province's Liberals and Tories to run on. But is this the right course for the NS NDP and if not how do NDP members respond?
Good fleshing out of how Dexter and co are wholly bought into the Chicago School BS of austerity and lower taxes. I'm going to compile the list of NDP tax-cutting so far. The tax cutting is totally not necessary, the economy will improve anyway with the Ships and US recovery (exports), the tax-cutting just further impairs government services for no good reason.
Christine Saulnier's (NS office of CCPA) Rabble blog post on the HST cut is a good start at looking at NDP tax cutting.
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/alex/2012/04/hst-cut-nova-scotia-detract...
Nova Scotia Taxation Changes implemented and promised by NDP 2009 - 2015
2009-12 Large Corporations Tax on Capital eliminated. Changed from 0.15% rate in 2009
to 0% in 2012. 0% is the same in all provinces now.
2010-12 Small Business Income Tax cut by half a percent in each of 2010, 11 & 12, now 3.5%,
Nova Scotia among the lower third in Canada now.
2010-12 2% HST increase = +$215 million revenue rising to +$380 million in 2012.
Offsetting Affordable Living Tax Credit = -$53 million 2010 rising to -$70 million in 2012
2010-12 10% Surtax eliminated on $80k-$150k personal income = -$27 million
Fifth tax bracket created of 21% rate for income >$150,000 = +$59 million
2013-14 Balanced budget promised
10% Surtax promised to be re-instated on income >$80k = +$27 million
Fifth Tax Bracket promised to be eliminated for income >$150,000 = -$59 million
2014-15 1% HST cut = -$190 million - promised by legislation
Eliminate offsetting Affordable Living Tax Credit? +$35 million?
2015-16 1% HST cut = -$190 million - promised by legislation
Eliminate offsetting Affordable Living Tax Credit? +$35million?
The Darrell Dexter government certainly faced a financial mess on being elected in Nova Scotia in 2009, inheriting a $260 million structural deficit amid falling tax and resource revenues in a troubled global economy. All-in-all the NDP has done a competent job stick-handling through 2009-12, primarily by raising the HST for badly needed revenue but also thru public sector restraint: negotiated 1% pay raises, relying on attrition to cut personnel and repeating the mantra "Back to Balance" endlessly. In 2012, still running a budget deficit of $211 million and having promised a balanced budget for election year 2013, it's becoming very uncomfortable as year-on-year cuts increase class sizes and wait times, require layoffs to current personnel and run up against pent-up public sector demand for wage increases that keep up with inflation. Everyone is aware, cutting that final $211 million this year to get "Back to Balance" is going to be painful.
However, Dexter, Finance Minister Graham Steele and the NS NDP have set themselves a new challenge: reduce the HST by 2% and willingly go back into structural deficit, requiring even more years of austerity as the HST cut will cause a $190 million revenue hole in 2014 and $380 million by 2015. This is even more than the original $260 million "hidden deficit" inherited from Rodney MacDonald's Conservatives who were regarded as inept. Willingly setting Nova Scotians up for years more of restraint, reduced services and job losses in various communities is a betrayal of the NDP members and voters who worked hard for a social democratic alternative to the Conservatives and Liberals.
Finance Minister Steele needs to explain how, still struggling with a $211 million deficit despite all the extra HST revenue, he will not only cut the $211 million deficit by next year but then tackle the further NDP-legislated revenue gaps of $190 million in 2014 and $380 million by 2015. Steele owes this explanation to NDP members who the party pretended to consult this month via a "survey" but then announced the HST cut within about a week of mailing out the survey. In that Dexter and Steele have in three years only whittled down the inherited deficit by ~$50 million, to now willingly forgo $380 million in HST revenue makes it clear that they are either undertaking a desperate re-election trick (they won't deliver on the HST cut on schedule due to budget 'circumstances') or they have sincerely placed a large bet on the "Chicago School BS" of lower taxes and fiscal austerity to somehow create jobs, jobs, jobs and revenue, revenue, revenue. Whichever it is, re-election trick or voodoo economics, NDP members are owed a full explanation of how this $380 million HST revenue cut will work before we are asked to go door knocking to defend years more cuts.
Because the numbers, they just don't add up, except as economic "shock doctrine".
V
Dexter's Midnight Runners to the Health Sector Unions: Raises = Pink Slips
This is funny.
Ha. Ha.
I was planning on at some point introducing into the thread on austerity budgeting, that health care and health care workers are next. [But not until after the election.]
But the Premeir beat me to it, and said it himself.
Of course, if you want to just take his words literally, then he isn't threatening anyone... he's just saying there are certain realities.
And there are.
But as to whether what he says is the whole truth, this is the same guy who last year when there was a shocked initial reaction to the outline of the austerity future in schools, said unequiovacally "classroom teaching will not be impacted." Repeated many times by Ministers and MLAs speaking to concerned parents.
Not a hint of that promise this year. It obvioulsly flies in the face of reality. And they had the 3 year plan- including more cuts next year to pay for that tax cut- when Dexter made that promise last year.
The preliminary report on redrawing provincial electoral boundaries here in Nova Scotia was released yesterday.
They advised to keep the four 'cultural' seats with lower voter counts, remove one Cape Breton seat, and another from northeastern N.S., and add two to the Metro suburbs east of Bedford Basin.
This will make for much discussion here!
Six months before the last Manitoba election, the NDP was losing by double digits in opinion polls. I would not count the NDP out in NS.
I seem to recall a few months ago that a certain Wildrose Party was steaming ahead of the governing party in Alberta and was 'destined' to take power in that provincial election...!
Stay tuned!
What's Dexter running on in 2013, 2% HST cut, austerity? Dumbass! What's superstar finance minister Graham Steele running on? - Oh right, he quit this session because of Dexter's HST cut now passed into law for 2014/15. The NDP still hasn't explained how they intend to pay for the 1% HST cut in 2014 and 1% HST cut in 2015 (but we can guess). This election promises comedy no matter what the outcome.
NSNDP Forest Policy = Shameful. Tell your MLA
Actually, don't bother telling your MLA, as they've all been at it for years.
dp
Dexter Days:
Harper Days.
I'm not so sure hard times in Nova Scotia can be laid at the Dexter NDP's feet. It's true Dexter has not pursued redistributive policies, and instead went all-in trying to help industrial capitalism in Nova Scotia create/preserve decent jobs, a role he looked very comfortable doing (to a fault many say). Whether Dexter's efforts work or not is still unknown, but the weak global economy and high Canadian dollar are not helping.
What also may not be helping is the Harper/Flaherty federal Conservative government:
Feds could derail balanced budget, says Dexter
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/10/17/ns-dexter-bal...
Dexter may be out of touch with the base of the NDP, have some misguided policies ("2% HST cut", looks even more boneheaded now), be a supporter of industrial capitalism to a fault, etc... but the acuteness of the hard times throughout Canada are attributable to the Harper regime, in my opinion.
At a bare minimum, the NDP base had a RIGHT to expect that a Dexter victory would mean no further cuts in social services, no cuts in education funding, and no further increase in fees for working-class people. If he couldn't even keep faith on those three very easy-to-achieve goals, what's the point of the NDP keeping him as leader at all? It's not as though the party won because voters WANTED Dexter to be the enemy of traditional NDP values. They weren't demanding that he be the scourge of his own freaking party, for God's sake.