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As you mention, the PC lead is growing
PC 1943 NDP 1678
The NDP results are about in line with what the party received federally in 2011 (down two points). If the vote broke down exactly as in the federal election then the NDP could get close to 33% but to win the PCs have to come down from their current 36%.
The most likely outcome is that Phillips falls a few percentage points short. These last polls have been really poor for her. CBC now projects a PC majority government.
I confidently project Brian Mason re-elected. Former MLA David Eggen is holding on to a lead in Edmonton-Calder: NDP 1388 PC 1253
Looks like I spoke too soon. NDP vote up to 10.2% and Libs to 8.9%. I still think there was some strategic voting as well as some people turning away from Wildrose because of homophobic, racist, anti-abortion, and climate change deniers (including Smith).
It's not looking good in Lethbridge West: PC 2096 NDP 1754.
Still half of polls remaining but if the NDP can't break 33%, they need the WRA to be higher than 27% to take this.
Sadly, I am going to project a PC win. Current standings PC 2214, NDP 1812
All eyes on Edmonton. NDP leading in 2 + elected in 2 = 4
NDP with leads holding in Edmonton Calder (former MLA David Eggen) and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview (former NDP riding, Deron Bilous on ballot)
Danielle Smith has had a close race in her riding all night
NDP chasing the PCs in a wild vote split in Edmonton-Gold Bar (former NDP riding); our own Lou Arab managing the campaign
PC 2061 (32.12%) NDP 1742 (27.15%)
I'm sure watching - sure hope they get elected. The lib leader is running 2nd in his riding.
Here's a shock: Liberals currently have more seats in Calgary than Wildrose
Edit: And now it's swung back again, 3-way race in Calgary McCall
NDP running second in Edmonton Manning (not a great area for the party) with 25.31% to 38.52% for the PCs.
Does Edmonton Manning overlap with Edmonton East?
Who thinks we need a new thread? This thread takes to long to load.
Unfortunately, Ray Martin (1374) is losing to Heather Klimchuk (1930). However, this means he might be available to run federally in 2015.
Unfortunately, Ray Martin (1374) is losing to Heather Klimchuk (1930). However, this means he might be available to run federally in 2015.
Wildrose leads in 3 ridings in Calgary, but all 3 leads are razor thin
Liberals and NDP are battling for third place in the lege. The Liberal fate rests on Calgary. Were the NDP to take Calgary off the table for the Libs, this would be a one seat night for the Liberals with the Liberals winning the very NDP friendly riding of Edmonton Centre. Not taking the Libs outta the game in Calgary ridings = missed opportunity for the NDP.
you know when you look at the numbers, eg. 1374 to 1930, and I go where are those other voters? So many people who aren't voting. sign
The WRA may win 20 seats. That is probably enough to see them into the next election. If they can keep the same "brain trust" together and maybe build on the current results, we may even see another competitive election four years from now.
Ted Morton has lost re-election!
It's tough, but either way, the NDP and Liberals are on equal footing, which gives a huge opportunity for the NDP.
And some will want to say that Mason should have done better, but I remind you that only 2 leaders ever led the NDP beyond 2 seats. One of those leaders is Brain Mason.
Speaking of vote-splitting
Edmonton Gold-Bar: PC 32.32% NDP 27.87% Lib 19.59% Alberta Party 1.84% Evergreen Party 1.21%
Hmm...the non-PC/WRA vote adds up to >50%
Brian Mason giving his speech.
The wheels fell off the Wildrose bus?
Heard on CBC tonight (earlier) that the WRA wants to take Alberta out of both Equalization and the Canada Pension Plan.
He predicts David Eggen and Deron Bilous will win their seats. "We're going to need a slightly bigger phone booth."
These results are almost a carbon copy of 2004. The NDP has the same % of the vote and seats. This time WRA provided the splits to make it happen and not the Alberta Libs.
Wild rose wanted to build a firewall around them - could they keep all their pollution too or did they see that like "stranded debt"?
in those 2 remaining NDP leading ridings, the numbers widened alot just now!
Also, for those that think "uniting the left" would push the PCs from power, feast your eyes on the less than 20% the NDP + Libs received.
Phillips appears to have started narrowing Weadick's lead. Only time will tell if she started early enough to erase it.
Danielle Smith speaking. I'm checking out. ETA: Don't own a big enough vomit bag to watch it
I think the big thing is that people wanted change but reluctantly stuck with the devil they know. Indeed, the PC statements about not working with Wildrose in a minority and attempting to poach Liberal and NDP votes may speak about how left-leaning Albertans really are. I think the Wildrose benefitted primarily from the "time for change" sentiment simply because they had the most resources to get their message out. Had the other oppositon parties had as many opportunities, who knows?