Latest Polling Thread - Started April 20, 2012

Please try to avoid confusion between opt-in surveys and polls done using some kind of polling standard. For all the information you have you are just advertising someone's entertainment survey but there is no science value to it whatsoever. To start a whole new thread to promote it when there is another out there causes only further confusion and division of the discussion.

I'd argue that you are starting a polling thread with something that is not a poll by any acceptable standard and doing it while there is an existing thread.

Sorry but I think this thread and post is less than unhelpful.

You say your research polling-- do you have a personal interest in the promotion of this so-called poll? That makes it worse if it is the case.

Edited: Since the other thread is nearly done with over 110 responses then I retract suggestion that this get closed-- but I do hope that we can see some effort to distinguish between opt-in surveys and actual polling by reputable firms because this detailed result could distract through a thread as some might not realize what it is. As well when opening a new thread it is helpful to put a post in the previous saying you are opening a new one in order to move the conversation rather than divide it. -- or wait till a mod closes the full one.

Really I wish we had multi-page threads to avoid this.

I still can't believe the Conservative and NDP numbers are as they are in the Prairies. The Conservatives got their start in the Prairies, and when you look at how the vote is distributed regionally and the clout that each region has, only a Conservative decline in Western Canada coupled with an NDP surge could explain why the 2 parites are tied nationally.

Basically if the number of people polled for the whole country is under a thousand and those people weren't selected randomly, the poll isn't worth much.

I'm fine with it being in a thread marked as a an unscientific survey but not in the main polling thread-- it becomes a distraction from real stuff.

Otherwise we will get interpretations and discussions over something about as accurate as a Ouija board.

New Quebec federal poll by CROP (their first since the leadership convention):

NDP: 51%

BQ: 18%

LIB: 15%

CON: 12%

Best choice for PM:

Mulcair: 41%

Harper: 10%

Rae: 9%

"This is more than a honeymoon....  He is almost alone on the ice in Quebec."

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...

That is almost impossible to believe.

I think with those numbers the NDP would win every seat in Quebec except for Beauce and Mount Royal. Even Mount Royal could be winnable if Cotler quits and the NDP nominates someone who can hoover up the Liberal vote.

Justin Trudeau may want to think about how his dad was a CCFer before turning to the red team because there was no orange team federally.

This poll is really great news for the NDP, after the perpetual disappointment that is Alberta politics and the Bruce Hyer crossing. I like that Nanos has gone almost two months without a poll

During majority government periods I think polling slows.

If you poll too much you burn your sample anyway.

Sean, fair enough. Not a mention of the poll on CBC. Jerks.

A 1980-type NDP sweep of the province of Manitoba? I could go for that!

Link to Nanos:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/harpers-bra...

Relieved more than anything to see Nanos more or less onside with the rest.

And add Nanos on provinces

Atlantic
NDP 35% (+14.7)
CON 32.9% (-12.7)
LIB 30.5% (-2.8)
GRN 1% (-0.6)

Quebec
NDP 37.4% (+5.2)
LIB 23.2% (-3.6)
CON 19.7% (+3.9)
BQ 16.4% (-4.2)
GRN 2.7% (+1.7)

Ontario
CON 36.9% (+1)
NDP 29.3% (+7.4)
LIB 27.7% (-10.1)
GRN 5.3% (+1.4)

Prairies
CON 46.7% (-1.6)
NDP 30.4% (+6)
LIB 15.6% (-5)
GRN 3% (-1)

Alberta

No info (did he forgot add it or put it on Prairies?)

BC
CON 39% (-2.1)
NDP 31.9% (+8.8)
LIB 19.6% (-8.6)
GRN 7.5% (+1.3)

I can excuse the relatively low NDP figure for Quebec - for whatever reason, Nanos often seems a few weeks behind the trend - but BQ in 4th place has to be down to a small sample size.