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Alberta election, 2012 (thread #5)

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NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Very well said David

Shift happens, but not this fast -- getting a handle on Alberta's wonky polls

 

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2012/04/shift-happens-not-f...

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

In other words just lie and deceive the voters during the election campaign. 

Social issues sank Wildrose during campaign, experts say

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/24/alberta-election-2012-wildrose-l...


6079_Smith_W
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Joined: Jun 10 2010

@ NorthReport

Well... sort of.

That is to say, I am sure you are in part right.

On the other hand, I don't think it is actual party policy that white people are better candidates. I am glad that fool spoke his mind on the issue, though. 

Those gaffes also speak to the party's inexperience, and Danielle Smith wasn't hiding anything when she made the decision that it was okay for them to say what they wanted, and not point out they were discriminatory.

Plus, there is only so much you can hide. There are some issues which Harper claims he will not touch, but anyone who knows him realizes he is just waiting until he is in a position to act. 

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Smith

Harper already has a majority government - what more power does he need.

Harper could care less about social conservatism, and he just uses those social conservatives to stay in power.

He has much bigger fish to fry.

Keep your eye on the money as obtaining power is all about who gets the next government contract.

All the other stuff are diversions.


6079_Smith_W
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Joined: Jun 10 2010

He doesn't have a supreme court in his pocket, which is what I think he would want before opening an issue like abortion choice.

Plus, he says he will not re-open it, but that only applies to criminalizing it in Canada. So far as support for women's health overseas, he is going full-steam ahead with his social conservative agenda. For that matter, he has slashed and eliminated funding to women's groups within Canada.

Likewise his office of religious freedom, stacked with right wingers. In short, I think he cares very much about social conservative issues. He only restrains himself in areas in which he thinks he is vulnerable.

So Harper is trying to deny his support for some things, with limited success.

But as I said, I think Smith's response was far more telling than anything any of her canidates said; she screwed this one up all by herself. 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
6079_Smith_W
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Joined: Jun 10 2010

Good article. 

Funny that one of the unacceptable right wing policies mentioned is the proposal to allow marriage commissioners to opt out of performing same-sex marriages. 

Middle-of-the-road Ontario already has that policy, without the cowboy hats, of course.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

6079_Smith_W wrote:

Good article. 

Funny that one of the unacceptable right wing policies mentioned is the proposal to allow marriage commissioners to opt out of performing same-sex marriages. 

Middle-of-the-road Ontario already has that policy, without the cowboy hats, of course.

Any chance that was implemented by the Liberals, progressive party that they are?


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Dumb, dumb, dumb!

Newly elected MLA Gary Bickman says rural voters have more common sense than city dwellers.

http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120425/CGY_gary_bickman...


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

NorthReport wrote:

Another in a series of devasting election results for Liberals

Alberta Liberals lose half their seats and title as official Opposition

 

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/alberta-liberals-lose-half-their...

They were also the only party that failed to elect any non-incumbent candidates.


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

I'd like to see the relationship between the number of people on the voters list and the voting age population. Still, it's quite an improvement. People must have been motivated to vote for some reason. Be nice to know the turnout by riding to see if accessibilty to a polling station is still a problem as it was last election. Also 10% of 57% is better than 8% of 42% (if I remember the percentages correctly).


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

NorthReport wrote:

Dumb, dumb, dumb!

Newly elected MLA Gary Bickman says rural voters have more common sense than city dwellers.

http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120425/CGY_gary_bickman...

To bad the WRA doesn't understand how nature works.


ilha formosa
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Joined: Feb 1 2010

Wilf Day wrote:
(from thread #4) If every vote counted equally, PC voters would have elected 40 of the 87 MLAs, Wildrose 30. Liberal voters would have elected eight MLAs, NDP voters eight, and Alberta Party voters one.

If every vote counted equally, there would also be less strategic voting and higher turnout, so I think the seat distribution would be a little more in favor of NDP and Liberals. How many NDP voters in NDP strongholds didn't bother voting because they had confidence their party was going to win?

Quote:
University of Alberta political scientist Lori Thorlakson said a 16-percentage-point increase in turnout is an impressive surge in the span of a single election. You have to look several decades back into Canadian electoral history to find a comparable increase in voter turnout, she said. "Turnout rates tend to climb slowly, but plummet quickly," Thorlakson said. "We don't generally see it shooting up."

Not all surges are the same. Surely, a surge in turnout from 41% to 57% would not be as difficult as surging from, say, 70% to 86%.

Quote:
While the percentage of Albertans who voted wasn't high, the huge population increase the province has experienced over the last decade meant that the total number of voters broke a record

Alberta's changing rapidly. I'm stating the obvious by pointing out: Wildrose = Reform Redux, provincial version. How nice it would be if the federal Conservatives splintered again.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Federal    | Provincial
933,201 | 1,009,489 (PC+WRAP together)
234,851 |    126,752 (NDP)
129,415 |    127,645 (LIB)
  73,770 |         5,082 (Green+Evergreen)

Wildrose only 17 MLAs it very Harper's Party.

I can predicting in 2015 federal elections looks like 17 (-10 from 27) Con MPs in Alberta (442,430) it might swing to NDP more than 490,000 likely 17 NDP MPs both are tied, and LIB and Green zero.


Fotheringay-Phipps
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Joined: Aug 26 2008

Haven't had a chance to log in for a few days. Thanks to KenS for the thoughtful posts re: strategic voting. I'm still thinking about them, which I suppose is a good thing.


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

Alberta Election: Party of Big Oil Defeats Party of Big Oil

Quote:
Most significantly, 25 corporations hedged their bets, giving cash to both parties, most prominently, companies in the petrochemical and energy industries. For Cenovus, Enbridge, Encana, Marathon Oil, North West Upgrading, NOVA Chemicals, Penn West Petroleum, Suncor Energy, Transalta and TransCanada Pipelines - there was a certain indifference. Smith or Redford would do. Either of them would be a good bet to allow the expansion of tar sands production into the foreseeable future.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

They were given two choices in Alberta, and the first one didn't count.


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

ilha formosa wrote:
If every vote counted equally, there would also be less strategic voting and higher turnout, so I think the seat distribution would be a little more in favor of NDP and Liberals. How many NDP voters in NDP strongholds didn't bother voting because they had confidence their party was going to win?

Exactly.

Howard wrote:

http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2012/04/if-every-vote-counted-what-would.html

Would PR also have likely (re-)elected extremists like Ted Morton because they would have been placed so high on party lists (as a top cabinet minister)?

I'm sure any PR model in Alberta would either follow the Law Commission model (vote for a regional party list or for one candidate on the list), or the no-list "best runners-up" model.

Under "best runners-up" look at the PC vote in the 13 southern Alberta ridings: 38.2%, or five seats. So PC voters elect two regional MLAs who did not win this year: that would be new candidate John Barlow in Highwood (42.5%, damn good against Danielle Smith herself) and Minister of Agriculture Evan Berger, MLA for Livingstone-Macleod (41.5%), former reeve of Willow Creek. Six other defeated candidates in that region got a higher % than Ted Morton's 35.3%. Not too popular locally after all?

Under regional open list, who would have won top spots at the regional nominations? (Or top spots after Greg Weadick.) Evan Burger and Ted Morton? Quite possibly. But when Southern Alberta voters cast a vote for the regional list or for one candidate on the list, would Ted Morton have ended up still one of the top two? Not guaranteed, eh? 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
voice of the damned
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Joined: Sep 23 2004

That link goes to the front page of Hill Times, not the article. Here is the article.

I agree that it might be jumping the gun to blame the pollsters, who may very well have been issuing accurate reports. Part of the blame might go the media, for subjecting those reports to superficial analysis, which failed to take into account factors like the high number of undecideds.

Plus, as the article says, the full effect of the "bozo eruptions" wasn't apparent until the final poll, which for legal reasons was not published until after the election.  


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Redford is pathetic.

After all her braying about Mulcair's position on the tar sands, she is running for the hills, and is going to disappear to the USA, while he is on his visit to Alberta. 

Not a very impressive display of Western hospitality, to say the least. 

Ignorance has no bounds it seems.

Redford is also doing Albertans a future disfavour, because should he become prime minister one day, she is not making it easy to represent Albertans with the federal government.  Fortunately Mulcair is above these of silly games, and sees her for what she is, a representative for the oil companies and corporate Alberta. 


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