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A 2-party system? That would be nothing short of revolutionary in one-party system Alberta!!! And if the NDP is Opposition, it would be on the strength of its 2-4 enclaves in the capital city. Long game for the PCs would be to hold the center, including Liberal votes, where I surmise a lot of the new arrivals in the province are comfortable. The margins will be left for the NDP and Reform Redux. Also a necessary part of the PC long game: Redford has to renew and refresh the party internally. Like an oil change I guess.
Correction, that comment was made on a blog in 2011. Danielle's working on changing things this moment. People grow. And science might even settle some things.
There have been 3 parties attempting opposition before.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Alberta_elections2.gif
Nancy Betkowski - couldn't beat Klein in the PC leadership contest, so took him on again as leader of the Liberals.
The pie is the electorate, not the number of parties courting it. If looking for signs of NDP growth/breakthroughs, look at how the party has grown in Lethbridge since last election.
Tom Moffat: 2008 - 5.7%; 2012 - 12.3%
Shannon Phillips: 2008 - 10.3%, 3rd; 2012 - 29.5%, 2nd
"Nah. Can't lose what isn't there in the first place." Pardon me???
Perhaps you don't know that 40% of the Alberta vote in the 2004 and 2008 elections was centre-left: Libs/Greens/NDP. The Alberta Democratic Renewal project put out a poll that suggested that a couple of years after the 2008 election, 48% - yes a full 48% -- of Alberta voters would vote for a centre-left coalition if there were one put in place. But no, the NDP etc. in their wisdom, wouldn't go for that, because, of course, they perceived that their REAL enemies were the Dr. Swann left-leading Liberals, not the regressive dinosaur PCs and Wildrose. This kind of retrograde thinking is so myopic and micro-hyper-partisan and frustrating to listen to it's not funny -- that is, if you live in this province.
Well, that's encouraging. But how does it break down across the urban-rural divide?
And who assumes they are talking about anything other than the PCs merging with the Liberals
Here you go, Ilha Formosa:
http://drproject.ca/files/DRPPOLL2010.pdf
In 2010, the Alberta DRP could not get this poll published in the mainstream news or alternative news, either, for love nor money. (Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why not from the right wing papers.) See more info at DRProject.ca
But, as the centre-left parties are their own best enemies, they weren't one tiny bit interested in discussing it with their members, either, so you don't have to lose any sleep at night wondering why Alberta is in such an appalling, right wing quagmire. Thanks to right wing and left.
This is all extremely discouraging to those of us who consider ourselves to be able to work with moderates, even if we hold stronger views.
And re the "wasn't there in the first place"...again, in Alberta just as much as in ManSask, there *was* a time--and quite recent, all things considered--when the NDP was taken seriously as a voting option even in rural areas. Remember: Grant Notley represented a "rural" riding.
Maybe it's time to venture beyond the mindset that dictates the Alta ND's to be a woe-be-the-rest-of-Alta Edmontonian (and now, latently, Lethbridgian) rump. It doesn't mean here-and-now winning, per se; but it could make a difference in being taken seriously in hitherto hostile territory.
And who knows; maybe Rachel Notley could channel her father's energy there, with a touch of Albertan "Horwath populism" for good measure. (Though when I think of it, one real disadvantage to Wildrose not blowing the PCs off the electoral map as predicted is that it leaves less room for the NDP to claim "anti-Wildrose advantage".)
I get the sense that the current leadership of the Alberta NDP is doing as well as they can and they certainly would love to do better in other parts of the province. They have recruited good candidates in Red Deer, the North, and other non-Edmonton ridings. They have held conventions in Calgary. Even so, the Federal NDP is doing better and this with essentially the same or lesser infrastructure. The Federal NDP in 2011 outperformed the Alberta NDP in 2012 in every corner of the province. The Federal NDP's poll numbers are rising in Alberta (there was even one poll recently that had them at 30%). While the Alberta NDP is stuck where it is. The Alberta NDP tried to "moderate" its message to bring in more support like the Federal NDP under Jack Layton did, with only moderate success.
Here is my advice:
1) Get a new leader. Brian Mason is a great man. I have enormous respect for him. When he came in to the job of NDP leader he had a decade of experience on Edmonton city council under his belt. He is and was a man of substance and electoral means (it is not easy to stay on council that long, especially as a left-winger). One of Mason's first campaigns as leader they put up billboards in Edmonton that read, "Want to send Klein a message? Here is your messenger." These billboards carried a picture of Brian Mason. It is time for a new messenger.
2) Seek out and give more of a voice to moderates within and outside the party. The Alberta NDP has a history of small dust-ups with moderates in the party that has sent supporters off to create their own parties (link) or to join the Liberals or made it so that when moderates & progressives leave the Liberal party they don't go to the NDP but rather to their own party (link), or a new Red Tory (link). The result of this hidebound divide is that whenever other parties lose support- that a non-Albertan might suspect would go NDP (i.e. the Liberals, the PCs left flank, etc)- it goes somewhere else and the NDP stays pat at its 9-10% which is usually a good accomplishment for the party, but not when you see the potential that exists at the Federal Level, where they've spent more money on advertising but also widened the tent.
3) Money, advertising, better campaigning. Brian Mason has made some serious attempts to improve NDP fundraising totals and deserves credit for it. The Alberta NDP has also managed its finances much much better than the Liberals who's colours should refer to their penchant for debt. That being said, the Alberta NDP
<More later>
2011, wow that's ancient history and a totally understandable mainstream sentiment then, eh! Seriously though, I agree that Smith won't make the same dumb mistakes again, or will at least be aware of them, but what are you talking about regarding "science ....settle[ing] some things?"
...was badly out of step with Alberta public opinion on several issues last election, some of which I tried to point to, and I don't want to believe that was because the party was so out of touch (with broader opinion). As such, the Alberta NDP needs to invest some more money and attention on public opinion research in focus groups and issue polls. A lot of this issue information is free: commished by others and published publicly, sometimes with the full data (PM me for more info). The Alberta NDP needs to develop better wedge issues, so that they don't get squeezed out of the media and people's short political attention spans. The party needs to be like Jack Layton's team and message "counter to type." I think these were Brian Topp's words. It means, say the unexpected so that people turn their heads and pay attention. The party also needs to seriously work on trying to craft the social democratic message so that it resonates with Albertans own prejudices about how the world really works/is run. A good message will help the NDP win. It will help it raise money. It will help it recruit volunteers. The NDP has some good message people on the market right now. There have been some departures from the OLO/Fed HQ. Sask may also have some staffers that could be ready recruits. Brian Topp cut his teeth in Saskatchewan for instance. Where/who is the next Brian Topp? Get them to Alberta.
It's all about strategic voting, and barring the unlikely total collapse of either the PCs or Wildrose, will continue to be. Grant Notley was the alternative to the right-wing in Alberta in the 80's. The federal NDP is the right-wing alternative to the federal Conservatives right now, and might well bring in upwards of 25% and 3 or 4 seats from the province. Right now the alternative to the right-wing in Alberta is, preposterous as it sounds, the PCs. This perception is going to be extremely difficult to shatter while Wildrose continues to make their central campaign message that Redford is not a true conservative. Right now, the NDP hold 4 seats. They placed 2nd in 4 others. Under the right cirucumstances, they could probably compete in the other dozen or so ridings in Edmonton, as well as Lethbridge West in 2016. Outside of that, unless the NDP really boost their polling numbers, you're just blowing your limited resources.
Please, please no. The opposition cycling through leaders in Alberta has become a joke. Mason polls better than the NDP does provincially, is seen as more statemenlike than any Liberal in the legislature, and is an asset to the party. There's no good reason to get rid of him, and there's no progressive savior in the province that will perform better than him. Notley (and I'm not bashing her here) included.
For the most part, I agree. From the perspective of NDP partisans, it would have been nice if the Liberals were blasted away from the provincial scene like some expected them to be last election. Instead the Liberals retain 3rd party and official party status in the legisature. This probably means that the NDP won't accomplish in Alberta what they might in Canada: Make the NDP the tent for all progressives to unite under.
It's all about strategic voting, and barring the unlikely total collapse of either the PCs or Wildrose, will continue to be. Grant Notley was the alternative to the right-wing in Alberta in the 80's. The federal NDP is the right-wing alternative to the federal Conservatives right now, and might well bring in upwards of 25% and 3 or 4 seats from the province. Right now the alternative to the right-wing in Alberta is, preposterous as it sounds, the PCs. This perception is going to be extremely difficult to shatter while Wildrose continues to make their central campaign message that Redford is not a true conservative. Right now, the NDP hold 4 seats. They placed 2nd in 4 others. Under the right cirucumstances, they could probably compete in the other dozen or so ridings in Edmonton, as well as Lethbridge West in 2016. Outside of that, unless the NDP really boost their polling numbers, you're just blowing your limited resources.
Please, please no. The opposition cycling through leaders in Alberta has become a joke. Mason polls better than the NDP does provincially, is seen as more statemenlike than any Liberal in the legislature, and is an asset to the party. There's no good reason to get rid of him, and there's no progressive savior in the province that will perform better than him. Notley (and I'm not bashing her here) included.
For the most part, I agree. From the perspective of NDP partisans, it would have been nice if the Liberals were blasted away from the provincial scene like some expected them to be last election. Instead the Liberals retain 3rd party and official party status in the legisature. This probably means that the NDP won't accomplish in Alberta what they might in Canada: Make the NDP the tent for all progressives to unite under.
Everything you've written here is true (although I'm not sure how well Notley would perform, I just haven't got the sense she is dying for the job) but how do we know there is no "progressive saviour" in the province if you don't open the door to one? Anyways, it sounds like the Alberta NDP needs a party renewal process, getting new MLAs and official party status is a good start. Next on the list might be some sort of fanning out across the province with an excuse of trying to meet as many progressive and progressively inclined people as possible. This is what G Notley used to do. I'd also like to see some bridge-building with the (soon to be extinct?) Alberta Party. They have elements of the moderate progressivism that they NDP needs in greater measure, but the Alberta Party don't have anything ressembling the power of an known or established political brand and thus are likely to disappear, probably joining other parties. To the extent credible, enough with the splitism among the non-PC ranks. Also, at the same time the Alberta NDP brings in more MLAs and official party money and more marks or volunteers, please bring in new staff. Let the renewal run from David Eggen to Deron Bilous, and whatever's next.
Another thing, while the NDP's greatest usefulness in Alberta has been as a voice for the province's poor, this is an image that does not sell electorally. It earns the party respect, but not a lot of votes. It is an image the Alberta NDP need to shed in favour of looking like a party of the middle class, while still advocating (in the legislature) for the province's most vulnerable. The other thing the NDP does well and should turn into a bit of a mythology is how they have been a canary in the coal mine when it comes to health care privatisation. The Alberta NDP has long been part of that early warning system that kicks in the brakes on any privatisation move. It is a testament to the NDP's minor effectiveness in this realm that Alberta has so little private medicine today and still some of the more generous insurance (if not always services) in Canada.
Lastly, I would like to see the NDP develop an opposition-style ability to deconstruct the conservatives from the inside. Very much like Mulcair is trying to do now in Ottawa by systematically pulling the Conservatives apart on all the issues that are supposed to matter to their base: waste, defence spending, ethics, "strong" leadership (i.e. decisiveness, ethicacy), etc. Mulcair is a trench warrior, I worry about his message control, but I don't worry about his ability to piece-by-piece take apart the arguments and raison-d'être of his political rivals.
If the NDP in Alberta had a massive breakthrough conference, why didn't they produce a "both main parties are bad, we're good, vote for ua" as their federal counterparts did (et aussi voir qu'est-ce qu'ils ont fait en francais) and the Ontario NDP?
They need more staff and now that they are an official party they can hire more.
It'll be interesting to see the effect BC politics will have on Alberta politics.
Specifically the BC NDP have equivocally come out against the Enbridge pipeline, and I can't see them being in favour of any others either. The chances are that they'll become the new BC government next year, which will likely undermine Redford's so-called "big Alberta" pan-Canadian approach. Then again, there wouldn't be much Smith could do about it either, since she probably wouldn't even sweeten the pot to try to get a potential Dix government to change their minds on the issue. Nor will it do much to help the Alberta NDP's image, in Alberta. Anyways, it should have some interesting reverberations and I'm curious to see what people think could happen.
I've never known BC to have a big effect on Alberta politics, then again, who can tell.
I meant that there hasn't been the situation in Alberta that the governing P.C.'s have faced 3 official Opposition parties, but thanks for the historical link.
Will 3 fully-funded Opposition parties make any difference in Alberta?
You omiited to mention that Dr. David Swann, former Liberal leader, was an NDPer.
As a big tent party, the AB Liberals tends to draw members from across the spectrum -- mostly left, as it is a party trying to find common ground with policies that are the most rational at that time. Good politics is about dialogue, not obstinacy and isolation.
Many Alberta provincial Liberals favoured PR. The party's website used to say "An Alberta Liberal government would organize a Citizen’s Assembly on Electoral Reform, to determine if other voting systems — including proportional representation — could improve participation and representation in our democracy." The Wildrose Party used to support a Citizen’s Assembly too, which means proportional representation.
They were right. On April 23, "strategic voting" defeated Wildrose, at the cost of narrowing Alberta's political options, and letting 43.9% of the voters elect a one-party government. We've seen this movie before.
The turnout jumped to 57%. But since last May's federal election had a 61% turnout, the 2006 election had a 65% turnout, and elections in the 1980s had a 75% turnout, 57% is hardly healthy.
Under a PR model, on the votes cast April 23, PC voters would have elected 40 of the 87 MLAs, Wildrose 30. Liberal voters would have elected eight MLAs, NDP voters eight, and Alberta Party voters one. A PC-Liberal Coalition Government?
And voters in every region would have a voice in the Government, in the Official Opposition, and in the third and fourth party.
http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2012/04/if-every-vote-counted-what-would.html
Premier Allison Redford has come under fire for her globe-trotting expense claims, but she's nothing compared to this guy:
Something hits the Alberta fan: Allaudin and his wonderful expense account revealed by CBC
excerpt:
One is practically struck dumb by the astonishing CBC revelation that the Chief Financial Officer of Alberta's massive single public health care agency was once accustomed to spending public money on his expense account as if there were no tomorrow.
Indeed, after yesterday's revelation by the only investigative journalist still gainfully employed in that field in Western Canada that Allaudin Merali submitted expense claims for such items as fine wines, succulent gourmet meals and repairs and upgrades to his foreign-made luxury automobile totalling $346,208 to the old Capital Health Region between January 2005 and August 2008, there was no tomorrow.
Leastways, Merali's career with Alberta Health Services, which took over the operations of the Capital Health Region in May 2008, was abruptly terminated mid-afternoon by the top bosses of the health behemoth, which is Canada's fifth largest employer.
Back in the day when all this was apparently going on, by the way, Merali was CFO of Capital Health at an annual salary of $487,000 a year, give or take. Despite that healthy income, apparently no item was too picayune to escape inclusion in his busy expense account. Tea and a muffin? A bottle of soda? Minor parking fees? In they went!
and:
It is known that after his departure from Capital Health, Merali moved to Ontario where his expense accounts as a consultant for EHealth Ontario, the government agency with the job of implementing that province's electronic health records system, also made uncomfortable headlines.
It is not known if Merali's expense accounting habits continued after his return to Alberta Health Services -- although it is safe to assume that question will be asked at this morning's news conference by Alberta Health Minister Fred Horne, at which pandemonium is certain to reign.
Globe and Mail
Even by Alberta standards this is pretty ugly.
Freedom of "speech," Lou
Good thing the Premier doesn't owe anything to the hero that wants to move the Oilers out of Edmonton. Anyone remember the saintly tones of the name Peter Pocklington?
I remember "Peter Puck"....
I also remember that scab employer Peter "It's My Pension Money Not Yours" Pocklington. When I and others point to the mid 1980's as the turning point in this country his use of scabs to break a union is one of the defining moments. As Treasurer of my local in the Kootenays I moved and got passed a motion to send the strikers cash. Our Labour Counsel also supported the strikers. Some miners from the very militant United Miners in the Elk Valley also went to beef up the lines during the strike. The paint bombs were simple and ingenious and were a favourite for stopping traffic in and out of struck plants. Take an "old school" light bulb and gently twist the top till it shears off and then fill the bulb with paint, tape top and throw.
A great battle but in retrospect it was a defeat and Peter emboldened all of the rest of his class of thieves and the attacks on workers and their pension plans has been going on ever since.
http://www.afl.org/index.php/AFL-in-the-News/united-they-fell-the-gainer...
http://www.afl.org/index.php/AFL-in-the-News/united-they-fell-the-gainer...
I'm not in favour of that sort of big donation, but it should be remembered that the biggest interference in that election came from Ottawa - Harper giving marching orders to his MPs and using federal resources to back Danielle "feed tainted meat to the hungry" Smith and the Wild Rose.
It would be nice to have a change from the PC Dynasty, but I am happy it was not in that direction. I don't take quite such a dim view of Katz's interference, given the fact that the game was already being rigged, and the eventual election results.
We even had interference from the feds in this week's municipal election in Saskatoon. Harperite MP Kelly Block was door knocking for a candidate who did not win. And while there is no direct connection, several smear campaigns in other wards have been called out as American-style politics that the Harperites are so good at.
And Alberta has only been at it for 50 years. They have been playing this game a lot longer on Bay Street, and the big league is still down east.
I don't understand the problem with a federal MP door knocking on behalf of a municipal candidate. The three levels of NDP politicians always support each other where I live. Not that they all door knock but I know that MP's have certainly worked the phones on behalf of municipal candidates and often appeared at public events and fundraisers. For most social projects to go ahead they require three levels of government funding so it makes sense to me that a federal MP would support a municipal politician who agreed with their world view.
Given the 100th anniversary of Alberta I wonder why you say they have 50 years experience at the game. The railroads were the greatest con ever played out in this country and the biggest crooks in the Western end of the scam became the scions of the new province. While it is true that the Founding Fathers from Upper Canada ran the scam it is also true that their Western partners from BC to Manitoba were just as crooked.
From yesterday in Question Period. Rachel Notley rips into the government on the Katz donations.
@ k
If that is how you feel about it, fair enough.
My problem with it is two-fold. While lower mainland politics may have become more officially partisan (or Non Partisan as they call it) Saskatoon city council, like most municipal governments, is not divided along party lines. We do not have municipal NDP.
Stephen Harper's interference in the Alberta election was not just a case of a local MP helping out the Conservative Party. In the first place, they were not helping the Conservative Party, and secondly, I doubt this action came from the local level. Like everything in his machine, it came from the Prime Ministers Office.
Plus, if it were any other party I might be a little less suspicious, but in Harper's case, the only thing that interests him is having complete control in his hands. I suspect that is why he decided to do something about the fact that the actual Alberta PC Party wasn't far enough to the right for him and didn't answer directly to him
And 50 years? That would be 15 years after Leduc #1 and six years after the pipeline debate - roughly the point that major corporate interests started paying any attention at all to Alberta. The railway wasn't built because of the prairies. It was built to bring British Columbia into confederation and stop American expansion. The only thing Ottawa saw in the prairies was a place to settle new immigrants and as an easy market for eastern factory goods.
The only western partners they had - at least here in the prairies at the time of the railroad - were easterners who came out here to impose their rule. Until the army got here in 1870 Ottawa was not in control of the situation, and it was only after two uprisings and war that they got their way. Hardly a partnership.