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I think the NDP MUST be prepared to fight a new leader of the Cons-- someone who may in fact wear fuzzy sweaters more attractively. Otherwise we are setting a trap and planning for an election that, I, for one, believe is unlikely to ever happen.
This is not to say Harper will definitely go-- I am just saying that if trends continue it is more likely that he will go (pushed or of his own accord) before the next election. At least we need to avoid building our plans assuming he will still be there.
@ Sean
It's kind of hard not to, since the party IS Harper. There is no conservative party any more. Whatever comes afterwards is going to be completely different. There is no way around that.
But even the brand isn't a sure target, because we have seen enough cases of parties dissolving when they become too toxic and re-emerging as something "new".
Sean, i speculated the concept of an early end to Harper a few months ago. I believe it is not so much about how the CONS are polling althought that is key. It is about how badly Harper is polling.
i believe we need certain conditions to develope that may casue an early election
1) Harper's polling continues to fall and he personally polls consistently lower than the cons themselves:
2) A split occurs on his right side whcih bleeds even a few % of votes
3) The NDP gradual increase in the polls
4) The loss of B.C. over the pipeline and the concept of the Cons picking sides over alberta vs b.c.. Some of these con caucus meetings as this develops should be interesting
5) The maritimes continues the shift to the NDP. i expect the liberal seats and votes will collapse here and this will also cause some conservatives sets to fall
6) If Obama wins in November and has 4 years without any chance of running again watch him become very friendly with the moderate leader from Canada who advocates similar tax policies. Obama has much more in common with Mulcair. obama remembers Canada's awkard involvement by the cons to assist republicans and mccain in the last election as well as embarasing him pver pipeline.. Obama might like to give Harper a good slap for old times sake
i Still believe Harper will resign amidst growing disallusionment and the cons will be forced to call an election bye summer 2014.
Here's hopin'
I think an early election is not likely but certainly Harper going is.
@6079 I think the key is to talk about failed Conservative ideology as well as personalizing Harper governemnt etc.
Yes, that works for us, but not for the many people here in Saskatchewan who spit when they hear the name "Grant Devine" but who think Brad Wall is cute as a button.
And I don't see Harper letting anything stop him completely other than the courts. In my opinion he crossed the Rubicon when he quashed legislation passed by the House with his unelected majority in the Senate. Stalls and reversals to legislation are one thing, but I can't imagine anything that would compel him to go of his own free will.
I would add to this:
7) The federal Liberals continue to disintegrate and Liberal voters in Ontario start a stampede to the NDP as the only party that can beat Harper and polls in Ontario start to consistently shift from the current CPC 38/39, NDP 28/29, Libs 26/27 to a new paradigm of CPC 37/38, NDP 35/36, Libs 18/19
So on the one hand when we talk about the Liberals it is as if they are no better than the Harperites. Yet when we think about the prospect of the party dissolving all of a sudden all the rats are going to jump ship over to the NDP.
Sorry if I am a bit sceptical.
Will the Cons use the "Bob Rae Days" as a boogeyman to scare voters away from the NDP?
what are Bob Rae days?
If Harper were to step down because he didn't want to lose, whoever inherited his mantle would be expected to lose, kind of like Christy Clark. Trying to dig yourself out from under that political perspective is pretty tough.
12 unpaid holidays a year for civil service workers in the 1990s. Excluded were those earning less than $30,000 annually.
So they threw out the NDP in 1995 and elected Tories. Harris' Tories permamently laid off 10,000 nurses and ran the deficit up borrowing $35 billion from private sources to finance tax cuts for rich people.