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Latest Polling Thread - Started April 20, 2012

106 replies [Last post]

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Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

bekayne wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

First drop any neutral comment like defining words- so NDP being socialist is no more negative than Conservatives being conservative or Liberals being Liberal. Also drop don't knows etc.

Would the leader of the NDP publicly call himself a "socialist" (not "social democrat")?

I doubt it. He probably understands that one person's "socialist" is another person's Stalin, Nicolae Ceausescu, and the Khmer Rogue. For others it is the Great Death Forward, the Burma junta, and Kim Jong Il. For yet others it is the dictators club of Africa, the naxalite insugents of India, the Maoist purge of Nepal, the "people's democratic" Central Asian (boil our political opponents in cauldrons) republics, the Iron curtain extending east of Berlin. "Socialism" means a lot of things to a lot of people: not all of it good.

Mulcair probably thinks the NDP can be socialists and a party of socialists without having to beat voters over the head with coded language or other appeals to a label. He might actually think Canadians want to be talked to as Canadians and not vanguards of the revolutionary uprising, although it would make for a good Broadway musical (les Mis).

(sorry if I've offended anyone. I tilt contrarian)


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Are any others willing to complain?

If we go after regulators-- at least we make a point that this is unacceptable. The G&M will never tell the truth out of the goodness of their hearts but if their reputation with regulators, councils and the public takes a hit they can be forced to come towards it. They may always be biased but the population needs to express that we won't accept being lied to.


Michael Moriarity
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Joined: Jul 27 2001

Arthur Cramer wrote:

More Bob Rae Conceit:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/28/bob-rae-thomas-mulcair_n_1461679.html?ref=canada

 

What is the story on this with the Huff Post. Man they are just Lib mouthpieces. Does anyone have any comments on this or my previous one. Is Rae right or is this just his nonsense?

Relax, Arthur, this is just a story about Bob Rae's appearance at the Nova Scotia Liberal convention. He is saying exactly the same things anyone else in his place would say, trying to keep the faithful from losing all hope. The story is insignificant.

 


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Howard wrote:
I doubt it. He probably understands that one person's "socialist" is another person's Stalin, Nicolae Ceausescu, and the Khmer Rogue. For others it is the Great Death Forward, the Burma junta, and Kim Jong Il. For yet others it is the dictators club of Africa, the naxalite insugents of India, the Maoist purge of Nepal, the "people's democratic" Central Asian (boil our political opponents in cauldrons) republics, the Iron curtain extending east of Berlin. "Socialism" means a lot of things to a lot of people: not all of it good.

Mulcair probably thinks the NDP can be socialists and a party of socialists without having to beat voters over the head with coded language or other appeals to a label. He might actually think Canadians want to be talked to as Canadians and not vanguards of the revolutionary uprising, although it would make for a good Broadway musical (les Mis).

(sorry if I've offended anyone. I tilt contrarian)

To look at it another way with a bow to whatever passports Mulcair has held, the electoral optics are better if the NDP frames itself as a "Hollande" rather than a "Melenchon" party--though yes, without necessarioy rejecting the latter, as that's where the second-round support comes from...


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

I found the Conservatives' decision to continue using attack ads on Rae even after Mulcair had won the leadership curious.  Are the attack ads on Rae still running?  I don't watch much TV, so I'm not sure.  Anyway, it seemed an odd decision.  I figured that the Cons felt the Libs were a bigger threat to them in Ontario than were the NDP, and that Rae's past association with the NDP would be a two-for-one hit.  Also, I figured that they estimated the greatest threat to them losing their majority would be the Liberals picking up in Ontario to get near to sixty seats in total, thus losing their majority, with the NDP maintaining many of its Quebec and BC seats (and that even attack ads would likely not dislodge this, so best to defend Ontario).  I also figure that they felt the strongest performer for the Libs was Bob Rae, so shaking the Lib's confidence in him as their choice seemed a strategy.  Given the recent Forum poll, this seems to have failed, given that he's still seen as the first choice of Libs (w/ Trudeau a close second).  Also the whole strategy seems to have failed, since Rae seems to have hung on to his approval rating (note too that Rae is popular with seniors, a group the Cons wishes to keep), whereas Mulcair has grown steadily.

It'll be interesting to see if the Cons change their strategy, and decide to focus their attacks on Mulcair instead of Rae (in attack ads).  If so, it will be interesting to see if Mulcair can weather these attacks.  They seem to be testing some themes now (IE, like being soft on Afghanistan, with the ridiculous Hitler statements).  Have there been any attack ads from Cons on Mulcair yet?


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Howard wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

This is why I can't stand the Libs. Its this feeling of entitlement, this arrogance. It truly drives me crazy.

Don't worry about this, your voice doesn't matter. You are only a Westerner and probably not a rich one at that. GTFO while I smoke cigars with my Eastern law school buddies and the son of the son of the son of someone who was once really important and maybe plays golf really well. Now would someone please check my coat? Ticket please!

Howard, without a doubt, you write some of the funniest snark on here. This just breaks me up; thanks!


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

posted to my FB page and gave a h/t to you Sean - ty for sure

 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Be fair to Nanos on this. There is nothing wrong with the Poll at all.

Lots wrong with the headline which is an absolute lie.

The Article itself is an absolute lie:

"If there is one overarching message from the online survey conducted on April 13 and 14, it's that Canadians don't think highly of any of the country's major political players."

I have written the following to the Globe and Mail editor:I am providing you an opportunity to respond before I bring a complaint regarding an article you published to the Ontario Press Council/

The article:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/untrustwort...
misrepresents a public opinion poll.

I have also placed this comment with details on the article- although I don't know if you will publish it.

*****

This article is the worst journalism -- the headline is an absolute lie and so is this comment:
"If there is one overarching message from the online survey conducted on April 13 and 14, it's that Canadians don't think highly of any of the country's major political players."

If you read the data you cannot help but draw the following fair conclusions:

First drop any neutral comment like defining words- so NDP being socialist is no more negative than Conservatives being conservative or Liberals being Liberal. Also drop don't knows etc.

Then add up the negatives:

NDP 14.3% Conservatives 40.2% and Liberals 48.9%
Then Add up the Positives for each party:
NDP 37.4% Conservatives 32.1% Liberals 29.2%
Then subtract the Negs from the positives:
NDP positive 23.1
Conservatives -8.1
Liberals -19.2

To pretend that this is the same for all parties is a complete falsehood or that people don't think highly of the parties is false.
This is a false representation of a public opinion poll and I intend to complain to this Newspaper and to the Ontario Press Council.
Newspapers have a responsibility to represent opinion polls accurately and tell the truth in articles even if they are biased.\
You philosophically hate the NDP- fine that is your business keep that to your commentary but misrepresenting findings of public opinion polls is over the line.

*****

I hope others will also bring complaints about this poll to the Globe and Mail it is utter garbage that we should accept outright lies on top of extremely biased shoddy reporting.

I have also responded to several people retweeting this poll on twitter making the same comment that the article is a misinterpretation of the poll.

Now Nanos ought to respond by writing himself to the Globe demanding that his poll not be so misrepresented.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

It's too bad Jack Layton isn't here to see the NDP polling in first place. He would have enjoyed it.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Thank you Jan! And glad we found each other on Twitter!


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Howard wrote:

It's too bad Jack Layton isn't here to see the NDP polling in first place. He would have enjoyed it.

Agreed, since he had everything to do with this.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Howard wrote:

It's too bad Jack Layton isn't here to see the NDP polling in first place. He would have enjoyed it.

Agreed, since he had everything to do with this.

absolutely, and for me, well, I think Jack knows. I'm not an atheist and so I find it comforting to think that Jack from beyond knows what's happening.

And Sean, good idea with your twitter as your byline.

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Sean, you have been on fire lately. Thanks for sharing all the things you do. When you write your book, I want the first autographed copy.

I really think you and Ari should write one together. Man, that would really be something.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Perhaps he does. We all know that he would pay attention if he could.

For myself -- I am not religious but am not sure what if anything happens to consciousness. I find myself merely accepting that I do not know. But in the memories of others we find immortality.

I also admit that I am an incredible fan of Olivia Chow and I hope she will remain close to the centre of NDP power.

They were a team and I think she was much more central to the Layton idea than perhaps we will ever know.

I use the Twitter name because I do engage people in both places and enjoy the connection. Lou Arab was the first from here I found on Twitter- I think although I expect I am following others who may be here but I just don't recognize them.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Sean, you have been on fire lately. Thanks for sharing all the things you do. When you write your book, I want the first autographed copy.

I really think you and Ari should write one together. Man, that would really be something.

Wow thanks Arthur. It has been nice to come back here -- there are a lot more in-depth exchanges possible than just on Twitter.

I don't have plans to write a book but I hope to one day think of a good book idea and find a way to do it.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I agree I'm sure Jack knows, he's probably high fiving Tommy Douglas over it :D

janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

And I wouldn't consider myself religious in any traditional sense but more like "what the bleep" sense. And nay, I'm so not going down that rabbit hole.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

janfromthebruce wrote:

And I wouldn't consider myself religious in any traditional sense but more like "what the bleep" sense. And nay, I'm so not going down that rabbit hole.

Good call!

Wink


Ippurigakko
Online
Joined: May 30 2011

 

Howard wrote:

It's too bad Jack Layton isn't here to see the NDP polling in first place. He would have enjoyed it.

NDP Orange Facebook Sweep

Like that?  He would enjoyed it when NDP beat Cons this month. ;)


Stockholm
Online
Joined: Sep 29 2002

Chjeck out this CROP poll in Quebec. They don't report vote intention but...

Sky-high approval of Mulcair

70% think it was a good thing that Quebec elected so many NDP MPs

The NDP actually beats the BQ 38-35% as the party best able to defend the interests of Quebec!

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...


Ippurigakko
Online
Joined: May 30 2011

Stockholm wrote:

Very Far Away wrote:

These numbers are great. However, Mulcair`s French citizenship is a problem for most of the respondents and I don`t think this problem will go away.

I was actually pleasantly surprised that only 44% of Canadians said that they "disapproved" of Mulcair having dual citizenship. That means that 56% either don't care or approve of it!...and of course just because someone "disapproves' of it doesn't mean that its a vote determining issue.

I agree that for Mulcair keeping his French citizenship is more trouble than its worth and if i were him i would give it up just to avoid the distraction - but these polling numbers tell me that this is actually much LESS of a problem than i would have expected.

 

Yeah, even Youth 18-34 did 55% approved and 31% disapproved (forum research says)
So I am youth, 24, i dont care if he has two dual citizenship (I approved his dual citizenship)... So next generation would dont care and approve.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Grenier over at 308.com has posted he isn't going to show seat projections anymore until the new boundaries are drawn up. Well, he has known about the boundary changes for a long time. Seems to me he didn't mind this when he thought the Libs were close. Now that NDP is actually starting to lead in some polls, it must be too much strain for his little LPC heart. Speaking of which, where is Debater these days? I always said he should have had a different handle. I don't see much "debate" going on.


Mucker
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Joined: Mar 8 2012

I'm finding myself poll-starved these days.  Seems like there hasn't been one released in a while?


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Mucker wrote:

I'm finding myself poll-starved these days.  Seems like there hasn't been one released in a while?

 

Look no further:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/poll-suggests-dead-heat-for-ndp-tories-on-anniversary-of-election-149837985.html

 

Headline writers remain loathe to admit an NDP lead. So, "dead heat":

NDP 33%

CON 30%

LIB "hovers around" election result (Too much trouble to give a number?)


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Three-month trend from Harris/Decima (you'd think this might have been worthy of a comment...)

Months: March / April / May

CON: 31 / 34 / 30

NDP: 28 / 32 / 33

LIB: 24 / 19 / ??

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Of course its a dead heat, I mean, why would ANYONE vote NDP? Lol!


samuelolivier
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Joined: Apr 14 2011

I can't believe there is no big headline and parade on this in the news... The NDP is first and the party has seen his voting intentions going from 28% nationally to 33% in only a few weeks. This is a major bump.

Don't wanna complain, but this whole media coverage since we're rising in the polls is such a disapointment.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

I don't really know what there is to  be dissapointed about. I would have expected this from the MSM. They hate the NDP.

 


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

Bourque Newswatch is reporting 16.9% for the Liberals in the Decima poll. That leaves 20% unaccounted for. Take off a few points for the BQ and there's still a lot of support going who knows where. I doubt the Greens are polling over 10%. Or is the NDP doing even better with even more than 33% of DECIDED voters?


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

16.9? I suspected when the number wasn't published it meant Liberal sympathizers made an editorial decision to bury it, but I didn't think it would be that bad.

If we had a real media, all of this would be newsworthy.


Ippurigakko
Online
Joined: May 30 2011

If election day was today, there would be NDP 133 and CON 118 seats (Forum Research)

 

~~~~~

Harris-Decima

April 30

Canada
NDP 33%
CON 30%
LIB 20%
GRN 8%
BQ 7%

Quebec
NDP 39%
BQ 29%
LIB 14%
CON 10%
GRN 6%

Ontario
CON 33%
NDP 31%
LIB 27%
GRN 7%

 

No info Atlantic/Prairies/Alberta/BC yet.

 

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2012/05/02/hd-20...


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