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Latest Polling Thread - Started April 20, 2012

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Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011
May 2, 2012 - 5:11pm
#91

JeffWells wrote:

Mucker wrote:

I'm finding myself poll-starved these days.  Seems like there hasn't been one released in a while?

 

Look no further:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/poll-suggests-dead-heat-for-ndp-tories-on-anniversary-of-election-149837985.html

 

Headline writers remain loathe to admit an NDP lead. So, "dead heat":

NDP 33%

CON 30%

LIB "hovers around" election result (Too much trouble to give a number?)

 

Full results of the poll:

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201205/1372-ndp-and-conservativ...


Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011
May 2, 2012 - 5:27pm
#92

Latest polls have one thing in common:

Support for Cons declined since the last election (From 39.6% to 30%-36%)

Support for NDP increased since the last election (From 30.6 to 32%- 36%)

 

Even with Robocall, F-35, Old Age Security from 65 - 67, cons have the support of 30% of Canadians (minimum).

With a new leader, NDP has the support of 36% of Canadians (maximum)

 

It`s good to have a lead like this, but I don`t think it`s enough to form even a minority government. I won`t feel good until NDP reaches 40% support of the Canadians.

 

 


Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011
May 2, 2012 - 5:38pm
#93

A year after the election:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/where-federal-parties-stand...


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010
May 3, 2012 - 12:04am
#94

No mention of poll on CBC National News tonight. Guess they didn't like the results.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003
May 4, 2012 - 10:51am
#95

Quote:
Media says 3% lead is a tie Grasping at stats to keep results "right"

by JIM GUILD

A recent opinion survey (April 26-30) showed the NDP outpolling the Tories 33%-30%, yet it was reported widely as a tie.

Canadian Press and Harris Decima did the poll and spun the results.

 Doug Anderson, Harris Decima VP for Public Affairs, said in a telephone interview that he saw no significance in not headlining their news release as “NDP leads by 3”.

“You could report it like that and the data would support you,” he said.

The pretext for this spin was that the margin of error was 3.1%, so the NDP could have been anywhere from 30 to 36 per cent support, and the Tories could have 27 to 33 per cent.

So they reported it was a “statistical“ tie.  They don’t observe that the NDP could be said to have “statistically won” by 36 to 27.  But a report good for the NDP might not be good for business, for Harris Decima CEO Allan Gregg, and for the large media interests (La Presse, Toronto Star, Globe and Mail) that own Canadian Press.

Anderson had no explanation for why they reported it like that when the Conservatives won an earlier poll by 3%.

...

 

http://halifax.mediacoop.ca/story/media-says-3-lead-tie/10750


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010
May 4, 2012 - 11:08am
#96

Jeff, as I said, I don't think the MSM likes the results. What a bunch of dicks!


Mucker
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Joined: Mar 8 2012
May 4, 2012 - 11:45am
#97

I think polling companies need to start employing statistical process control methodology rather than traditional research methodology.  They could poll smaller samples - but poll them more frequently - and analyze data points over time to get a feel for the natural variation within the data.  Then this whole "plus or minus 3 percentage points" would be less of an issue, and we'd actually be able to glean information about trends and shifts from the data.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007
May 4, 2012 - 11:51am
#98

Mucker wrote:

I think polling companies need to start employing statistical process control methodology rather than traditional research methodology.  They could poll smaller samples - but poll them more frequently - and analyze data points over time to get a feel for the natural variation within the data.  Then this whole "plus or minus 3 percentage points" would be less of an issue, and we'd actually be able to glean information about trends and shifts from the data.

That would be fine, Mucker, if it weren't for the fact that polling companies have (more or less) become a tool for governing parties to use to communicate their messages to the populations.  They want the business of the political parties with the financial backing to make their existence worthwhile, so I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for polling firms to ask questions that are 100% not influenced by partisan politics.

Unless someone can point out to me a polling firm that is completely neutral when it comes to political polling?

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008
May 5, 2012 - 2:45pm
#99

CROP prehaps


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007
May 6, 2012 - 1:52pm
#100

NorthReport wrote:

CROP prehaps

Is CROP the only polling firm worth listening to?

 


Bärlüer
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Joined: Aug 20 2007
May 6, 2012 - 3:08pm
#101

David Young wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

CROP prehaps

Is CROP the only polling firm worth listening to?

In Quebec, CROP is often considered to be favorable to (provincial) Liberals.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007
May 8, 2012 - 11:45am
#102

Almost a week since the last poll and no new polling results?

I'm beginning to wonder if the polling firms are afraid of publishing any results that don't show the Conservatives in the lead.

Are they worried that the Conservatives won't give any business to a firm that doesn't show them in front?

I find the silence by the polling firms very strange.

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010
May 8, 2012 - 11:55am
#103

David, poll today that has the NDP ahead of the Tories by 12 in BC, unless you are Eric Grenier who has the NDP only 3 points ahead. I don't know why he just doesn't rename his web site "308Liberals.com"!


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002
May 8, 2012 - 1:19pm
#104

What poll has the NDP 12 points up in BC?


bekayne
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Joined: Jan 23 2006
May 8, 2012 - 2:01pm
#105

Arthur Cramer wrote:

David, poll today that has the NDP ahead of the Tories by 12 in BC, unless you are Eric Grenier who has the NDP only 3 points ahead. I don't know why he just doesn't rename his web site "308Liberals.com"!

That's an average of the latest polls


Rebecca West
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Joined: Nov 28 2001
May 8, 2012 - 2:25pm
#106

CFL


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