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I don`t know if Sean will write a book or not. Hope he writes.
I just want to thank him for his great posts on Babble. His comments on so many different issues are very well thought and very well written. He makes Babble an inspirational platform to visit.
I also don`t understand why NDP doesn`t hire him. He`s a perfect candidate for NDP`s think tank committee (department etc. if they have one).
Sean, I believe the Broadbent Institute is one option.
As for the poll results, I was going to post the other day that the criticism of the MSM and, specifically 308, is fair but understand that regardless of our views here these are big changes and big changes need time to register. I am ok with the slow and steady shift in the national MSM narrative that is occuring from it (the 2011 Orange Wave) was a "fluke", "a Jack-iste phenomenon", "a Mulcair honeymoon", to the new "the Tories are suffering from self-inflicted wounds" theme. Each time the narrative gets put out, is digested and becomes part of the sub-floor of a foundation that sees the NDP filling the political mainstream of the plurality of voters. If Ontario is coming late to the party, I'm ok with that so long as they get there.
I don't need the emotional gratification of a headline three years out from an election showing the NDP in first. I want the emotional satisfaction of an NDP majority with a headline that describes the win as historic but inevitable.
That's the best analysis of big media's narrative I've seen. Two thumbs up.
I don't think people realize how hard it is to hold the Conservative coalition together. I don't doubt that right wing forces will get angry if they see the Conservatives tanking, and I don't doubt that they'll try to make heroic moves to stop the NDP. But almost all of those heroic moves end in chaos.
Replace Harper? Expect a hugely divisive leadership race between Progressive Conservatives, Reformers, and Blue-Liberals. There's a less than 25% chance they'll find someone who can unify the bigots with the traditionalist immigrants AND the oil/finance tycoons.
Create a new far right party? See 1993 Federal Election.
Buy the Liberals and migrate en masse? See British Columbia, 2012.
When teams start losing, the finger-pointing begins. I'm more than happy to stir up animosity between Conservatives, who forgot how much they hate each other.
The question is if we can go 3 years without progressives and social democrats hating each other. On this forum, it seems like we can't go three hours.
SD:
Great comment!
Steve:
Great comment as well!
SD:
Great comment!
Steve:
Great comment as well!
Wow -- such kind words. Thank you so much.
I used to publish books -- it sure would be nice to write one of my own.
On the media I think people forget sometimes that while media outlets may have a bias they are not always loyal to that bias. That is because they have a first loyalty which is to their business.
The media want to sell ads or papers or whatever. When it comes to politics they want a story -- a horse race-- something developing.
They want readers/viewers so if those people want a story covered -- it will get covered.
The media cover their bottom line before the interests of their politics.
In part this is what makes certain right leaning media outlets different from others. Let's consider two of them: The SUN chain and the National Post. The SUN chain has limited their audience to those who want extreme right propaganda and venom-- the hard core right who would support Harper even if he grew a Charlie Chaplin-style mustache and declared that this was in honour of his hero. Those who don't want that extreme point of view already don't watch their network or buy their bird-cage liners.Therefore covering any political story from any point of view but the extreme right is against their economic interest.
The National Post has a right wing bias but aims for a more diversified audience. This means the Post has an economic interest in not turning off people who are not quite as right wing as the SUN's audience. The Post don't want their numbers going down with Harper's. The Post want to help the Conservatives and will do so at election time but they will respond to their market first and if that marker is demanding a little balance then they may well deliver a bit.
I did not mention the Globe and Mail. This is a paper that seems to be in transition. The Globe is perhaps trying to get the very right wing crowd that is a little too sophisticated for the usual SUN stuff but wants a Conservative cheerleader. The Globe is throwing under the bus a long time reputation for being somewhat ethical in their still somewhat biased right wing coverage. I'd say the Globe is now more like the SUN without a Friday Girl and Guy.
Anyway-- if you are a media adviser to a political party, you can appeal to and still get media out of some right wing biased outfits and not others. It depends on their market which is even more important to them than their political ideology.
I think a multiplicity of factors mentioned by other commenters have helped create the surge of the NDP to the top, IMO:
(1) Mucker: Is the NDP now the de facto second party alternative to the Conservatives? (Yes, many people in Canada and the US are less ideological than 20-30 years ago, thereby helping bring about rapid changes in voting patterns compared to the past);
(2) Jeff Wells: There is a segment of the Conservative base, inherited from Reform, that is more populist (and, I expect, more rural) than rigidly ideological and urban. (This is especially true in BC, where federal Liberals have had almost no support in the Interior in generations and the provincial Liberals have only won their because everyone provincially knows they are a coalition of Libs and Cons that is now in deep trouble thanks to the revival of the provincial Cons who appear ready to win many Interior ridings in the polls);
(3) Stockholm: I wonder whether Mulcair may actually be a bit more appealing to men than Jack was - what with his gruff "Lou Grant-like" image. (Jack was a great leader who greatly expanded the party but I have heard several comments from people and in the media that reflected their perception of him as a Toronto yuppie [not saying its true - just there were people, especially men, who perceived him that way and this influenced their voting] while Tom's gruff manner and beard project a more masculine image. This is probably also helping in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Alberta's addiction to the fossil fuel industry means it is unlikely to shift towards the NDP as seen in the poll. For those who think this is unlikely, the CIA found in the 1960s during Allende's first Chilean campaign for the presidency that negative attacks on him in the press had little affect on his popularity while planting pictures in the newspapers that made him look awkward or goofy significantly reduced his popularity);
(4) Jeff Wells: There's a comment to the Post's story of the poll that I think represents the populist rage of the Con-NDP switch voter:
Quote:Well.. For me, what is swinging me away from the Conservatives is the BEV ODA,, $16. of Orange Juice.
Many voters do not spend much time following politics and therefore are not moved by important but complicated issues, but have their voting patterns affected by straightforward issues such as overspending especially when linked to a perceived arrogant attitude. As noted by Jeff, this was part of the appeal of the early Reform Party against the corruption of the Mulroney Cons, so when old-time Reformers, rechristened Conservatives, appear to violate this principle some of them are especially upset and start to look elsewhere).
(5) Jeff Wells: Quote:
- The NDP support leads the Conservatives (39% to 31%) for the first time in four years of CARP Polls™. (The increase in OAS benefit age and other issues have turned many older traditional Conservative voters off the party and with the NDP's promise to return the age to 65 made the NDP more appealing).
(6) The attacks on environmentalists as radicals backed by foreign money is making the Cons look like the radicals, especially when the fossil fuel industry is dominated by foreign firms. Furthermore, in BC, the perception that the province will get all the risks of pipelines from the twinning of the current pipeline to Vancouver and the Northwest pipeline to Prince Rupert but almost none of the benefits is making even pro-Conservative journalists like Barbara Yaffe question what is in it for BC. For example, the Vancouver pipeline firm said there would only be 10 to 100 new jobs in BC from the project after the pipeline is finished. (7) The perpetual scandal machine that is the Conservative government and their attempted coverups (black ops voting scandal,Oda, F-35 costs, Paradis, failure to meet own standards according to latest environmental report) is attacking the very foundations of what originally brought them to government - their promise to introduce integrity, accountability and transparency standards in the 2006 election.One more issue that I could not get into my last comment:
(8) The perpetual scandal machine that is the Con government and their attempted coverups (black ops voting, Oda multiple scandals, Paradis, F-35 costs, failure to meet own standards according to most recent environmental report) have destroyed their image on the issues of integrity, accountability, and transparency that helped get them elected in the 2006 election.
In support of this, look at the second choices of Bloc voters just before the last election, April 28 - 30, 2011:
NDP 49%, None 21%, Liberal 11%, Green 10%, Conservative 7%, Other 2%.
While I agree that the BQ is running on fumes, the election of a PQ government could provide them with new resources if it decides to continue on the federal stage. While this is questionable, it is still possible. However, while this would likely keep the BQ ahead of the federal Liberals and Cons, they would remain a second place party behind the NDP, possibly reducing the potential number of NDP ridings in Quebec in 2015, but even in these most favourable circumstances leaving them far behind the NDP. Without resources from the PQ, they could well disintegrate.
Mulcair's continual citing of the harm created by the artifically high value for the Canadian dollar on the manufacturing sector in Ontario and Quebec is, I think, starting to pay fruit as one factor leading to the increase in support for the NDP in Ontario. Continuing to focus on this could provide a wedge issue to further increase support in these provinces.
While I agree that the BQ is running on fumes, the election of a PQ government could provide them with new resources if it decides to continue on the federal stage. While this is questionable, it is still possible. However, while this would likely keep the BQ ahead of the federal Liberals and Cons, they would remain a second place party behind the NDP, possibly reducing the potential number of NDP ridings in Quebec in 2015, but even in these most favourable circumstances leaving them far behind the NDP. Without resources from the PQ, they could well disintegrate.
Mulcair's continual citing of the harm created by the artifically high value for the Canadian dollar on the manufacturing sector in Ontario and Quebec is, I think, starting to pay fruit as one factor leading to the increase in support for the NDP in Ontario. Continuing to focus on this could provide a wedge issue to further increase support in these provinces.
If Quebec vote BQ surge, then Cons, Libs and Green going vote NDP to stop the BQ in next elections.
Daniel Paille should run at Lise St Denis riding, byelection if need. Would like see their race in Saint-Maurice—Champlain
somebody runs NDP, Lise - LIB, Daniel - BQ?
Well, maybe Sun Media in its present Fox-wannabe form. However, Sun newspapers have traditionally been slipperier affairs--probably because they've known that a lot of their readership has been the blue-collar "union class" who'd gladly opt for old-fashioned NDP populism over "Latte Liberalism". IOW Harper may be God, but better Jack (or Tom) than Iggy (or Rae)--and, in a not-quite-endorsement-yet-sending-a-message way, they're willing to be "disappointed" by Harper and "impressed" by the NDP.
Indeed, the worst thing the NDP can do is to enact a clumsy Rob Ford-vs-the-Star boycott of, uh, those fascist extremist goons at Sun Media--something even Jack + Olivia knew, when they appeared on and disarmingly played along with SunTV soon after it started broadcasting...
Adma, I don't disagree with the approach but the message of SUN is pretty clear and quite obviously closed.
And don't expect them to be impressed by an NDP in reach of government-- during an election
"In reach of government"--makes sense (after all, historical Sun-media pussyfooting has hinged upon the NDP being terminally out of gov't reach, therefore harmless_
The latest Ipsos poll:
Canada: CPC 37%, NDP 35%, Libs 19%
Ontario: CPC 36%, NDP 35%, Libs 23%....if the Libs become a distant 3rd in ontario they are D.E.D. DEAD! as a party!
http://www.globalnews.ca/federal+liberals+losing+support+as+ndp+tories+b...
37/35 - it would have been called a "dead heat" surely if the results had been reversed! But this is an historic high for the NDP on Ipsos.
Ontario is dizzying. I want to see the Toronto numbers.
Anyone can post here PDF for Ipsos reid in all province info?
Ipsos Reid
CON 37% (+3)
NDP 35% (+2)
LIB 19% (-2)
BQ 5% (-2)
GRN 3% (-1)
Quebec
NDP 45%
BQ 23%
LIB 17%
CON 13%
GRN 1%
Ontario
CON 36%
NDP 35%
LIB 23%
GRN 6%
Didn't the Harris-Reid poll have the NDP up in BC and the Atlantic? This poll says otherwise:
This Ipsos poll is very interesting. I like the fact that NDP reached 35% nationally. However, regional numbers are kind of weird.
BC and Atlantic seem like big outliers, the rest makes sense
These numbers don't add up there is an error somewhere. NDP can't be at 35% nationally with those numbers. I suspect a couple of the regionals are typos.
The maritime and BC numbers are way off. Sean is right, there is something screwy here. There is simply no way the Libs could be ahead of the NDP anywhere, especially the Matimes.
Lol remember in April or early May before the leadership convention and a poll was released, with the Cons at 34% and the NDP at 33% and the headline was "Torries narrowly lead NDP?" lmao
For fun:
Facebook "Like"
CON - 23,193 (28.7%)
NDP - 20,284 (25.1%)
LIB - 20,192 (25.0%)
GRN - 14,968 (18.5%)
BQ - 2,128 (2.6%)
=P
Forum Research gives almost identical Ontario federal numbers as Ipsos Reid
Con 35
NDP 35
Lib 22
The NDP dominates in 416, the Cons in Eastern Ontario. The other regions are pretty even with the Liberals badly lagging everywhere.
Two numbers are particulalry encouraging:
The NDP is almost even with the Cons in 905, previously a wasteland for the pary and the place where most of the new seats will be.
17% of provincial Liberal voters now favour the federal NDP.
http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/18368_Ontario_Political_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf
Their seat projection is Con 48, Lib 37, NDP 22.
My first reaction is "Whaa -?" Then I remember how bad our system is and think Yeah, I could see that.
Yep, so the Libs TRAIL the NDP in Ontario, but get MORE seats. NO question, FPTP is as undemocratic a way to elect people as any we have seen. Ridiculous that the Libs should have that kind of result.
By the way, anyone hear from Debater on this? He has got to be happy that he is getting more seats then us, right? How about it Debater, I always said you should have a different handle, it should have been Gloater. Are you out there? What is your response? I mean at the very least you could complain to the Mods about how I am being mean to you! How about it Gloater?
One thing to bear in mind about Forum. I am about 99% certain that their regional splits are based on area code - so "905" includes all of Hamilton Niagara in addition to the GTA 'burbs - that would obviously boost the NDP numbers. Also, they define "northern Ontario" as anyone with a phone number that starts with 705 (or 809) - the problem is that the 705 exchange comes as far south as Peterborough and includes a lot of rockribbed Tory areas in central area - so again their "northern Ontario" numbers look more Tory and less NDP than you might expect because northern ontario is so diluted with Orillia, Barrie and Peterborough...
Forum has a seat projection model that makes no sense whatsoever. I have to think they have a bug in their computer program. Last Ontario election the Liberals took 37%, Tories 35% and NDP 23%. Their latest poll says its now PC 34%, NDP 32% and Liberals 27% - yet their seat projection suggests that the NDP would only gain 5 seats. That is mathematically impossible. If the Liberals have lost 10 points and the NDP has gained 9 points that is a NINETEEN POINT swing. Even if i used the crudest estimate and just added 9% to the NDP and subtracted 10% from the Liberals in every riding in Ontario (in other words the NDP wins every seat that they lost to the Liberals by a margin of less than 19%) - I would see the NDP instantly pick up 12 Liberal seats and that is not even counting some Tory seats that would likely be won over.