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Latest polling thread - May 10, 2012

99 replies [Last post]

Comments

Arthur Cramer
Online
Joined: Nov 30 2010

I don't believe the BC numbers.


Stockholm
Online
Joined: Sep 29 2002

Those are not the BC numbers. The abacus press release says the NDP leads 41 to 40


JeffWells
Offline
Joined: Dec 15 2003

The Conservatives add to their stockpile of wasted votes in Alberta, to nearly 70%.

The Liberal vote, at 17% nationally and 22% in Ontario, would, I presume, be extremely inefficient beyond a handful of Montreal and Toronto enclaves.

 


NorthReport
Offline
Joined: Jul 6 2008

Abacus - BC

NDP - 41%

Cons - 40%

Libs - 13%

Grn - 6%


nicky
Online
Joined: Aug 3 2005

Mulcair's favurability figures are encouraging. 

His only bad net negatives are among Conservatives (-30) and in Alberta (-21)

His net positives include Atlantic +23, Quebec +56 and Ontario +5

The NDP has good prospects of further raiding the Liberal and Bloq votes : Among Liberals Mulcair has net +5, among the Bloq +34.

Mulcair has +70 with NDP voters, of whom only 3% disapprove. The scars from the convention are long forgotten.

 


socialdemocrati...
Offline
Joined: Jan 10 2012

People really overblew how negative the leadership race was. What were the worst moments: Ed Broadbent's shots at Mulcair, or maybe Topp and Singh bickering over charities? There was never anything out of the leadership race that was useable by the Conservatives or the Liberals, and never anything that would make one of the leadership candidates toxic to the rest of our supporters.

If you want to see a divisive leadership race, just wait until Harper steps down. You'll see them fighting about whether to cut health care, whether to cut social security, whether to outlaw abortion, plus a bunch of comments about gays and minorities. ALL of that will play out very poorly for the next leader. Which is why they desperately need Harper to stay on. He's the only guy who can unite their party. A Reformer in PC clothes. Anyone else will either seem too PC or too Reform, and will get blasted accordingly by one half of the party.

In the meantime, it's great to see the NDP unified. We'll never agree on everything, but as long as we agree to work together, we have a shot at forming a majority.


mark_alfred
Online
Joined: Jan 3 2004

nicky wrote:

The scars from the convention are long forgotten.

I still would have preferred Topp, but oh well.  I've stayed on as a sustaining member with a regular monthly donation.


UWSofty
Offline
Joined: Dec 4 2002

The Praires numbers are wrong too. 28% is right, but that's unchanged from March, not +10.


UWSofty
Offline
Joined: Dec 4 2002

You have to love the media's reporting of poll numbers.

May 2 - Harris Decima has NDP with 3 point lead.

CTV: Poll suggests Tories, NDP tied for voter support

A new poll suggests the Conservatives and NDP are in a statistical tie for voter support one year after the federal election.

May 22 - Abacus has Tories with 2 point lead.

Sudbury Star: NDP closing on in on the Tories: Poll

The Conservatives remain tops in public support, but the NDP is closing in fast, a public opinion survey done exclusively for QMI Agency shows.

The Sun News Netork used the headline: "Tories still on top, but #NDP narrowing the gap"


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