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Luckily the Party is polling ahead of Dexter, but the NS NDP has not been particularly progressive in government (or environmentally sound either).
That may be just Nanos' poll bias. Everyone else has them at 20% or below I think.
May 2012 Federal Poll Averages A month filled with rhetoric, relatively large gains in May by the Conservatives in British Columbia and by the New Democrats in Ontario are signs of a shifting landscape. And for the first time since June 2009, the Conservatives lost the lead - and not just by a few decimal points.http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/06/may-2012-federal-poll-a...
Also what's this stuff at the bottom of the post that cannot be removed?
WebRep currentVote noRating noWeightso at the provincial level, ndp is ahead or gaining in every province, including 2nd place in ontario, seats again in nb, solid re-election in ns, big win in bc, and in the mid-teens in pei for the first time in the history of polling. basically, we're slowly becoming the natural governing or natural opposition party everywhere but alberta and the rock (and quebec, obviously). the rock we can crack but the recent elections there hold real lessons (esp for nb and pei), ontario will probably require a leadership change, and sask is has just down some sort of vortex. but the trend is amazing.
Unfortunately, the leader has an effect on the party fortunes, and if a leader polls behind the party that party is in serious trouble.
No. Dexter needs to be replaced. Now.
Sean...the way to win despite the media is to move online in focus...
...a key part of which is to recruit a team on online/ social media posters...to counter the Blue spin...
The Blue team have their paid posters shouting down any rational discussion online...
Orange needs a response team(s) to get your side of the story out ...
Actually I think we have the common person on our side, because the paid posters are so blatently partisan it makes ANY points they say sound beyond the pale, even ones that aren't bad. The challenge team orange has is making sure everyone recognizes they are DOING SOMETHING. Unlike the liberals. Make sure there is this divide and people knwo the libs did little to oppose harper while the NDP have been fairly consistant over all. Right now the cons are howling about union sponsourship of an NDP event. Which is nothing compared to the corporate sponsors they use, but the anti union attitude fed by the media whips up the old hate.
Our biggest ally is the business press. These greedy pigs continue to gorge themselves while the 99%*so to speak) are getting shafted at every turn. The bank bailout in spain is a fine example. People are also empowered with social media. Occupy would likely not have been possible otherwise. It highlights that people CAN have an effect. This encourages more to get involved by not feeling isolated. Many say they didnt accomplish any thing, no they didnt do much but highlight how the 1% are screwing everyone else. So each business story about million dollar bonuses to execs while layoffs to the workers after stock prices tank shows the rest of us that they only care about themselves.
That does far more than we could do. If you want to write in to media, call and organize grouops. Its still a good idea. You need people to feel they aren't alone on the issues. But a propoganda wing spouting off NDP talking points would likely hurt us in the end. Non partisan comments showing how bad the cons, and to a degree the libs are will help us, but don't waste your breath on the libs. Like advertising don't give them any press. If they seem irrelevant it is better than villainizing them.
Its how the managed to pull NDPers away each and every election. I know some think that people vote on principal, a lot vote for popularity. That is the reason the NDP did so well in quebec. They could be seen as a viable alternative. quebec may have saved this country by making the NDP a real alternative to vote for. Lets just hope they don't go the way of the labour party in the UK. Otherwise I will be running for a real left party.
Do not assume that the Liberals will remain at that level of support indefinitely. While the NDP is likely to remain ahead of the Liberals for the immediate future, next year's Liberal Convention and new Leadership may create a gradual re-building of Liberal support. As Chantal Hébert said in last week's column, things are still in a state of flux, and it remains to be seen whether Mulcair's honeymoon period can last and whether the polling numbers get shifted around somewhat in the years to come.
Incidentally, why is it 'concerning' to see the Liberals polling higher? Why does the NDP want them to do badly? The NDP cannot win all the ridings from the Conservatives - there are some ridings where only the Liberals can stop the Conservatives.
Ipsos Reid
Majority (56%) of Canadians Agree Liberal Party is a ‘Party of the Past’ Half (52%) of Canadians Have ‘Written Off the Liberals’, Harper Bests all Current Party Leaders in Positive Impressionshttp://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5654
Jeez, one poll shows that NDP only two points ahead during midterm doldrums and suddenly the leader needs to be replaced. I guess with your logic the Manitoba NDP should have dumped Selinger the day after one poll showed the PCs in the lead...of course Selinger went on to easily win the election. Also, I guess Layton would have had to be dumped about 20 odd times, every time a poll had the NDP below 18% in the olden days!
Because the Liberal party is the enemy of progressives everywhere. They are the leaders in allowing private health care into Canadian provinces, waffling on women's reproductive rights, backing out of progressive legislation like pay equity and Kyoto, all while lying about being progressive and how next time Canadians shold really just trust them because they are going to implement child care and other progressive policies "this time."
You keep telling yourself that Debater. Go ahead, it'll make you feel better.
That is just bang on Felixr! I have been saying that for years. Hey Debater, you taking notes here? Oh and one other thing, Debater, just because in the past the NDP didn't seem able to win certain seats doesn't mean that is still true now. After all, as the poll shows, YOUR party is yesterdays news. Why don't you guys do the right thing and simply get out of the way so that the NDP can beat the Tories. Unless of course, you secretly like Harper. I'm just sayin'.
Selinger did not win that election, McFadyen and the PCs lost it. There's a big difference between the 2.
At the end of the day, the Orange Team did better than the Blue Team - and each leader had a choice in how the campaign unfolded at the top - no matter, the Orange team leader did better in leading the campaign and steppin in doggy do-do.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/12/pol-grassroots-unite-le...
It's not that the NDP is only a couple of points ahead, it's that Dexter is so unpopular. Less popular than Crusty Clarke is saying something.
Dexter has had his ups and downs. He had a post win honeymoon, the he took a tumble after raising the HSt! Then his popularity surged this past winter, now another drop...we shall see where things are at next year. McGuinty has often been the most hated premier in Canada and yet he is still running Ontario and has won three elections.
I wish Dexter hadn't governed like a Liberal. Of course Doer and Sellinger both act like Liberals too.
I guess they (NDP premiers) similar to Greek PASOK?
When I look at the picture to the link, it has some highlighted ridings that for the life of me don't require a unity candidate - eg. Trinity-Spadina, Tor-Danforth, Toronto Centre? What I mean is that 2 are NDP and other Liberal. So what's that all about?
Jan:
It is solely about electing Liberals, period!
Will be curious to see how Rae's decision to NOT seek the Liberal leadership filters through the polling numbers to come. I think that his leadership had been already factored into the numbers and now the Liberal vote will drop (because all the other contenders - save, perhaps, Trudeau - have zero name recognition) or will rise (as people fill the "player to be named later" slot with their own idealized choice.
Anyon ehave any thoughts on how accurate the latest Nanos poll is? He has the Libs almost neck and neck with the NDP in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada. It seems to me those results are very different from what we have seen up to this point. Is it possible the party is slipping?
Hi Arthur -- you probably know what I am going to say.
These polls individually are not accurate.
I agree with those who say that the NDP may have an advantage but the other shoe will only drop after the Liberals choose their leader.
There is no election right now and many people who vote are not paying attention now. The results of the next election are very much up in the air. A major stumble by the NDP and a brilliant choice of leader for the Liberals (if there is one even available) could change things dramatically-- possibly even to the advantage of the Conservatives. The Liberal party could move either left or right with the next leadership. The variables in the future are so many that even the huge variables of that poll pale by comparison.
In my view the smart money is not betting at all.
Steve, I suspect Rae not running will help the Liberals and that is why he made that decision.
It certainly depends on who they pick and what direction they go in for their own fortunes. And it is unclear how other parties could be affected. A move to the right could be more trouble for the Cons than the NDP for example.
Sean, do you think the Libs can win with Trudeau (the sky is falling, the sky is falling, the sky is falling; ok, I am all right now). I am serious. And, thanks for your other comments above.
Cheers buddy!
Rae didn't run because he would have been fighting his own party with the right to lead. Having said that, who runs that party is the corporate backers and no way would they let the party run to the left and actually govern on the left Thus, is Trudeau pliable enough to use him as a figure head but ensure the corporate right still runs the game? My answer is that I think so but saying that does Trudeau want to be bothered?
It's alot of work being leader - it's just not about being a pretty face but having to lead and keep the team together.