The Next Liberal Messiah
http://www.nationalpost.com/m/search/Justin+Liberal+saviour/6772960/stor... Its seems like just yesterday that Bob Rae was going to save the liberal party, he had the limelight, he was eclipsing Turmel, liberal were calling him the obvious choice. Then to the Liberals perpective the impossible happened and the NDP picked Mulcair, who then body checked Bob Rae back into the shadows. Now Bob Rae is yesterdays news and the idea of him running for leader is meet with groans when it seems like yesterday it meet with cheers. Bob Rae must hate Mulcair. Now the Messiah is Justin Trudeau, he of the epic last name and blazing fists. Personally I do expect Trudeau to boost the liberals number by a 2 to 4 percent nationally if he wins, but I don't expect them to last. He too will be eclipsed by Mulcair. In fact Mulcair was more then happy to use the spector of Justin running to torment Rae so that suggests Mulcair has a plan for if Trudeau wins.
So you think Trudeau will lead the Liberals in coalition or just cross the floor as an MP?
Trudeau will never cross the floor. He thinks he's his dad, just as smart, his last name is Turdeau, and he is SUPPOSED to be PM. I don't discount him; he'll get TONS of help from the MSM, look at the Huff Post just today. We'll be fighting him and the MSM, and the Trudeau myth.
Hope they pick the most conservative contender.
Rae is out. Just saw this on Huff Post. Is there ANYONE who doesn't think Trudeau will be the next Leader? I have to tell you, that last name makes me really, really nervous. Yes, I have to say it, "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!!!!"
http://www.google.com/url?url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/0...
I think Justin Trudeau could be a real threat to the NDP. While his father is still a divisive figure in Quebec I think Justin would have a bit of support in the province. I think the NDP would still lead in Quebec but would likely be reduced a bit.
I think the odds are high that Trudeau will win. In our celebrity-oriented culture, this could make him attractive to many voters whether or not he has any policies or gravitas. On the other hand, he could suffer the Britney Spears syndrome and flame out after an initial infatuation as the media intensity starts to show and then emphasize his flaws if he is not careful about his persona.
Prediction: Justin Trudeau (Liberal critic for Post Secondary Education, Youth and Amateur Sport -- has he hammered the Conservatives in those areas???) will also not run, and the race will be between Denis Coderre, Marc Garneau, Dominic LeBlanc and Stephane Dion.
I'm with Wilf, because I'm sure I heard Trudeau say he doesn't want to run this time - earlier this year (long before the boxing match) he said he wants to spend more time with his young family.
ETA: But I disagree with Wilf as to Stephane Dion. He's spent, his best days (such as they were...
) are behind him. His English has also declined - saw him on P&P earlier this year, couldn't understand anything from him, and neither could the Closed Captioning person who simply gave up during Dion's interview with Evan Solomon. Solomon's brow furrowed as he tried to follow what Dion was saying.
Trudeau has said that while he still does not plan to run he is still listening to those who is encouraging him and he could reconsider.
He doesn't seem to have a whole lot of substance, but who knows maybe he'll surprise. I was a bit shocked that Rae didn't give him more responsibility with regards to his critic portfolio, but Trudeau does do a lot of touring for the party so maybe that is why? He also comes with the risk of foot in mouth syndrome, but many said the same about Mulcair.
... and about Trudeau Senior.
Okay, can Trudeau lead the Libs to OO status at the expense of the NDP?
Jean Charest!
A Trudeau candidacy would be following less in the tradition of his father and more in the tradition of Turner and Ignatieff - the home run swing (that misses). If the Liberals believe that the only thing they need is the right face for the posters and the right name for the pamphlets then they are truly a spent force. If they, and I am not prepared to dismiss the possibility that Trudeau might have this insight, recognize that they need to fundamentally reinvent themselves from the ground up and stake out some bold positions borrowing from the right-left and grey-green spectrums then they will still be around in two more election cycles. I don't think they, or Justin, are up for that much heavy lifting.
Rae says to vote Liberal because the alternative is "The Tea Party or Occupy Movement". At least they're not shy about being anti-progressive anymore
What does Rae think the occupy movement represents? How dare people think they should have a say in how they are governed. Off with their heads!
If he is his Dad's son then he will cross the floor if he thinks the NDP is going to form government and that Mulcairs job will be up for grabs in 2020 or 2024. That is the right time frame for his age and young family. Don't forget that Pierre was an NDP member before being recruited into the Liberal party with assurances of a Cabinet post if elected.
I doubt though that Justin is capable of envisioning the type of progressive change that his Dad's Omnibus Bill in 1969 enacted.
I think if Trudeau were to cross the floor it would be a great thing for the NDP but I think it's really unllikely.
I don't know if he will run for Lib leadership or not but I think if he does run he will win.
As far as the NDP goes Trudeau could be the potential leader who would be most likely to support an NDP minority govt, so that's a positive.
If the Liberals can't take clear and popular stands on policy issues then I don't think it will matter how charismatic Trudeau is. And I think if the Trudeau Liberals try to run as NDP knockoffs then people will vote for the real thing.
It surprised the hell out of me that Stephane Dion would run again. Any confirmation of this?
ETA: If you want to kill off the Liberal Party for good this time, then encourage Dion to run again.
Hebert has an article on this. It might be interesting if either Manley or Carney were to go for it. It's doubtful either would though, since they both are in highly respected positions now.
It occurred to me today that the logical choice for Liberal leader is Dexter. They need an update from the old war horse Rae and he would fit the bill perfectly. He is cut from the same mold as Dosanjh and Rae.
Do you think the NDP will identify with the Occupy movement? Serious question. My answer: Never. Yours?
Putting aside the swipe at Dexter, the "sacrifice principles for power" calculation rather excludes a bid for the 2012 LPC, does it not? Thought the recent IPSOS poll suggesting that even 1 in 5 self-identified Liberals believe their party is a party of the past is as clear a rebuke as you can get. They may get a dead cat bounce during their leadership race but the medium to long-term prospects are very, very grim.
Liberal corporatist John Manley? Are you insane?
I resent your cynical implication that an NDP premier would ever stoop so low as to join the Liberal Party.
I hate to say it - because i think the NDP is better of without them - but does ANYONE think Rae or Dosanjh would have crossed to the Liberals from the NDP if they had know the NDP would become the official opposition and drive the Liberals into third place?
Just follow this simple rule and you'll never go wrong:
NDPers are good until they cross to the Liberals.
Liberals are bad until they cross to the NDP.
Now, if only there were a simple rule to predict who will cross next...
Not as things stand now, no. But the real economic crash is still yet to come, and when it does Occupy 0.2 will be a much bigger phenomenon. It is not impossible that the NDP might have the sense to start getting behind it when it stops seeming like a fringe movement.