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I don't think Trudeau is the best hope for the Liberals. I think he knows that. He is being pressured by desperation. I think he badly wants to be leader but knows it is too early. They would be better having some dark horse come up than Trudeau.
The Liberals may have other options-- even Dalton McGuinty would be a better choice for them. He is finished provincially but as much because his government is tired as anything else. Christy Clark could run and be the architect of a Progressive Conservative Liberal party attempting to knock of Harper. If the Liberals were smart they would talk to Michaëlle Jean.
I don't know if she is a Liberal but if she is and decided she wanted the job she would win the leadership. She could also be a serious threat to win an election as well. I know many don't like her but more like her than like the Liberal party right now. A lot more. I think perhaps even enough to allow her to become PM in a coalition. I think the Liberals have a few other choices but not many good ones.
If Michaelle Jean had had political ambitions she could have run for the NDJP leadership and been leader of the opposition with a good chance of being PM in 2015. Why would she waste her time with the Liberals. In any case, she was a nice figurehead and TV hostess, but does she know a thing about how to run an economy?
TV hostess? I assume you would have used the same kind of language had we been talking of a man becuase otherwise that would be horribly sexist right?
Jean is quite well eduated and I think would do a way better job than many of the parliamentarians including the so-called economist that is running Canada... into the ground.
I am not defending her or Liberals. I am saying that politically she would be an asset to the Liberals if they were looking for someone good and she was interested.
I'd be happy to see her run for the NDP, frankly.\
But if you want to consider who would give both the NDP and the Cons a run for their money as Liberal leader-- that is the name I thought of. She is a star and anything less than a star will probably bury the Liberals. And yes, she would be better than Trudeau for the Liberals and if either actually beat the odds to become PM I'd take her over him. I think she actually could surround herself with decent people and know who to take advice on over what. I hope we have not forgotten what a PM normally does in the short time that we have had a dictator that does everything.
Does anyone really know how to run an economy, and what does that mean exactly? As for Jean, the precedents for Governor Generals running for office are not auspicious.
Besides Ed Schreyer, who was there?
I'm a bit shocked at the nods of approval from the posters regarding the idea of Michaelle Jean running for the NDP. Somebody please show me some evidence that she has a record of being in any way politically progressive.
1) She let Harper prorogue Parliament without having him face a confidence vote back in 2008. Harper would not be PM now without this outrageous decision, which many constitutional experts, as well as Ed Schreyer, did not support.
2) She let Harper violate his own election date law without so much as a peep.
3) I remember her as host of CBC's Passionate Eye many years ago. Her commentaries before the documentaries always ensured that nobody would be "fooled by any left-wing bias" supposedly inherent to the documentaries presented.
The NDP needs her as a candidate as much as it needs John Manley (a suggestion I was, how shall I put it, surprised to read under another forum topic).
I don't remember her passionate eye commentaries being unbalanced.
I don't agree with her stances as GG but I don't think they were based on ideology so much as a perception of the role of the GG and crown.
Certainly I think she would need to explain her rationale.
I think you make a good point Sean. I am pretty much convinced she made her decisions as GG based on the advice she received and her understanding of the role of the Crown in current Canadian conditions. As to the Passionate Eye, well, I never watched her shows, but would interested in whether anyone has some specifics regarding this.
@Sean in Ottawa
I remember one particular commentary in which did quite the hatchet job on a documentary on Cuba broadcast on her show. It would be interesting to find out a little bit more about her perspective in her 1999 NFB doc entitled: "Last Call for Cuba," which I have not seen. However, it's her decisions as GG that are important - she has a heck of lot of explaining to do. She could have said no to Harper.
I agree with Sean. Michaella Jean is a better candidate than Justin Trudeau and she can do better in the elections for LP.
Christy Clark would be an interesting choice, at least in the same way that Ignatieff was. A right-winger trying to be more progressive than they actually are, but fooling no one and consquently leading the party into the ground.
I don't think Clark would be at all like Ignatieff. Ignatieff was as you say trying to sound progressive and instead was identified as artifical and insincere. Clark on the other hand I don't think would try to sound progressive but instead recast the Liberals as a moderate Conservative party in rhetoric thereby matching the bulk of their positions in the recent past. The obvious mismatch between rhetorical positions and actual ones that sank the party in many respects. Clark could run from the right and give Harper a run for his money.
I think the smart Liberals may realize that a governing target is an easier one than an opposition party that has not yet had its chance. that is doubly true when it is a target that is a tired govenrment that has a reputation of arrogance, anti-democratic tendencies, corruption and dishonesty. I don't think Harper's party would stand up well to a challenge from the right whereas the Liberals would be hard pressed to mount an effective challenge to the NDP at this stage.
I'll go further; the Liberals could be a threat to the NDP but not before they increase their support from elsewhere. The first 5-6 points in their recovery will have to come off Harper if they are going to be able to compete with the NDP for opposition (unless they put up a truly inspired leadership option). Clark, I think, would bust down Harper by a few points since she is widely regarded as Conservative. If she were able to do that without losing too much ground to the NDP that would bring the Liberals to 25%.
All that said, as I have said before there is a real potential for the next election to be between a rejuvinated right-of-centre-but-not-as-extreme-as-Harper, Liberal party and the NDP with the Conservatives reduced to a rump.
There are two things holding this back; 1) the idea that everyone can participate-- if enough progressives who are not Liberals participate this could be stopped leaving the Liebrals with a leader bent on challenging the NDP and 2) a leadership of those who hate the conservatives and think they are progressive (while the NDP is nuts) to want to keep that form happening. ther eis no done deal here.
On Jean: She comes form a political culture that does not see the crown as that central and may like the idea of having a figurehead but not want to be a part of using appointed Crown power. I am not assuming that she is actually allied with Harper or shares much with him in political ideas.
Getting back to the topic of this thread....
I haven't heard of any polling done around the topic of Bill C-38, and the public's reaction to the marathon voting.
Has anyone?
New poll!
Forum Research.
NDP 37
CPC 30
LPC 22
http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/politics/has-it-ever-been-so-good-to-be-...
The most dramatic post-election poll, and The Post buries it on page four and hasn't posted the story online.
Funny, that.
Full Forum Results:
Region/Nat/Atl/Que/Ont/Pra/Alta/BC
Sample/1482/155/401/515/86/128/197
Conservative/30/28/15/34/33/60/30
Liberal/22/22/18/28/19/18/17
New Democratic/37/44/41/34/43/13/45
Green/5/4/4/3/5/7/7
Bloc Quebecois/6/0/22/0/0/0/0
Other/1/1/1/1/0/1/1
With the Jack of Spades (i.e. Trudeau) as Liberal leader:
Region/Nat/Atl/Que/Ont/Pra/Alta/BC
Sample/1490/155/407/513/87/128/200
Conservative/28/23/12/32/37/62/30
Liberal/28/31/30/33/19/17/21
New Democratic/32/38/32/30/37/13/44
Green/4/5/4/3/4/6/6
Bloc Quebecois/5/0/20/0/0/0/0
Other/2/2/2/1/3/2/0
It goes without saying that Justin Trudeau has no where to go but down from this day forward...if runs for the LPC leadership at all, his total vapidness and propensity to say really dumb things will quickly become apparent.
But you know, I'll bet if this poll ever gets attention the headline will be "Liberals tie with Conservatives under Trudeau, poll says."
Also, wouldn't the Liberals sabotage all their talking points about how the NDP is supposedly in league with the sovereigntist devils if they were to choose a leader who'd been known for years AS a sovereigntist?
And if she were to make a big show of recanting any sympathy for sovereigntism, wouldn't that destroy any ability on her part to bring new voters TO the Liberals?
Tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and ahead everywhere else except Alberta. Given FPTP vagaries, this may not be that far from majority government territory (20 seats Atlantic, 55 Quebec, 40 Ontario, 15 Prairies and Alberta, 20 BC, plus at least one of the Territories). ~150 Seats total. Far too early to count chickens though.
Forum Research - June 14
NDP 37% (+1) = 136 seats (-2)
CON 30% (-2) = 114 seats (-9)
LIB 22% (+2) = 53 seats (+11)
BQ 6% (+1) = 4 seats (=)
GRN 5% (-1) = 1 seat (=)
Approve / Disapprove
Harper 31% / 61%
Mulcair 39% / 31%
Rae 40% / 32%
Trudeau 39% / 34%
two Liberals Rae VS Trudeau
NDP 37% / 32%
CON 30% / 28%
LIB 22% / 28%
BQ 6% / 5%
GRN 5% / 4%
18-34
NDP 39% / 34%
CON 26% / 26%
LIB 17% / 20%
BQ 9% / 9%
GRN 7% / 9%
35-44
NDP 40% / 40%
LIB 25% / 29%
CON 24% / 21%
GRN 6% / 4%
BQ 4% / 4%
45-54
NDP 36% / 32%
CON 32% / 31%
LIB 20% / 25%
BQ 7% / 6%
GRN 6% / 5%
55-64
NDP 38% / 31%
LIB 23% / 31%
CON 29% / 29%
BQ 6% / 6%
GRN 3% / 3%
65+
LIB 26% / 34%
CON 35% / 33%
NDP 32% / 25%
BQ 4% / 4%
GRN 2% / 3%
Male
NDP 36% / 31%
CON 32% / 31%
LIB 21% / 26%
BQ 7% / 6%
GRN 4% / 4%
Female
NDP 38% / 33%
LIB 23% / 31%
CON 28% / 26%
BQ 5% / 5%
GRN 5% / 4%
Atlantic
NDP 44% / 38%
LIB 22% / 31%
CON 28% / 23%
GRN 4% / 5%
Quebec
NDP 41% / 32%
LIB 18% / 30%
BQ 22% / 20%
CON 15% / 12%
GRN 4% / 4%
Ontario
LIB 28% / 33%
CON 34% / 32%
NDP 34% / 30%
GRN 4% / 4%
Prairies
NDP 43% / 37%
CON 33% / 37%
LIB 19% / 19%
GRN 5% / 4%
Alberta
CON 60% / 62%
LIB 18% / 17%
NDP 13% / 13%
GRN 7% / 6%
BC
NDP 45% / 44%
CON 30% / 30%
LIB 17% / 21%
GRN 7% / 6%
Bob Rae
2011 voters
NDP <- NDP 81% (+1), OTH 38% (+18), GRN 31% (=), BQ 22% (-2), LIB 21% (-3), CON 11% (+2)
CON <- CON 80% (=), OTH 17% (-7), GRN 14% (+10), LIB 5% (-4), BQ 3% (-5), NDP 3% (-2)
LIB <- LIB 70% (+7), OTH 20% (+2), NDP 9% (=), CON 8% (=), GRN 7% (+1), BQ 6% (-1)
BQ <- BQ 66% (+7), NDP 4% (+2), OTH 4% (-6), GRN 2% (+1), LIB 1% (=), CON 0% (-1)
GRN <- GRN 45% (-11), OTH 6% (-11), NDP 3% (-1), LIB 3% (=), BQ 2% (-1), CON 1% (-1)
Justin Trudeau
2011 voters
NDP <- NDP 80%, OTH 13%, LIB 9%, GRN 3%, BQ 3%, CON 2%
LIB <- LIB 81%, NDP 16%, OTH 14%, GRN 13%, BQ 9% CON 8%
CON <- CON 89%, OTH 10%, LIB 6%, GRN 3%, NDP 1%, BQ 1%
BQ <- BQ 88%, NDP 1%, GRN 1%, LIB 0%, CON 0%, OTH 0%
GRN <- GRN 78%, OTH 10%, NDP 1%, LIB 1%, BQ 0%, CON 0%
Justin really does well with the over-65 demo. And with Quebec voters. Odd, that. It's not the result that the media narrative would have us believe is coming.
I'm not the type to fixate on a single poll, but I have to admit this gives me some warm fuzzies. NDP leading by at least 10% in Atlantic, Prairies, Quebec, BC, and then tied in Ontario. The only holdout is Alberta, desperately out of step with the rest of the country. Oh, Canada. There might be a sliver of hope for you yet.
What is it going to take to get Alberta to stop marching "Forward Into The Past"(as The Firesign Theatre once put it)?
Amazingly effective, the media's cone of silence on this poll.
I also want to say that the MSM also wants Trudeau to run as leader for the libs which will keep the duo corp rule going - Justin as a nice looking faux progressive figurehead, thus ensuring that Cons con't to win at the polls, or the libs win or back up minority cons to ensure corporate rule.
The new Forum poll shows the NDP leading with voters who make 80 to 100 K a year and barely behind the Consrvatives with voters who make more than that.
This confirms other polls which show that the party since electing tom Mulcair has greatly expanded its appeal to upper income voters.
I wonder if this is a long term trend which reflects recent US voting pattersn where the better educated and wealthier have recoiled against the right wing drift of the Republicans.
Full results.
As always, most polls lead us to make simplistic assumptions. This time we get to see (page 7) how people say they have shifted since a year ago:
Even as the NDP tops the polls, only 81% of people who say they voted NDP a year ago still support the NDP. But 22% of those who say they voted Bloc now support the NDP, 21% of those who say they voted Liberal, and even 11% of those who say they voted Conservative, plus 31% of those who voted Green.
Very oddly, of 1,529 polled, it seems 1,490 claim they voted a year ago; only 2.6% did not vote? Implausible. It does not show us how those 39 would vote today, just as well, too small a sample. But the 2011 election study shows 56.6% of those who did not vote in 2008 voted in 2011, while about 5% of those who voted in 2008 did not vote in 2011 (mostly 2008 Liberals and Quebec Conservatives).
OO with her data base would be able to analyze this better.