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Latest Polling Thread - June 2, 2012

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quizzical
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Joined: Dec 8 2011

Ken Burch wrote:
What is it going to take to get Alberta to stop marching "Forward Into The Past"(as The Firesign Theatre once put it)?

ban religion and wait 20 years


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Getting a New Democrat elected in Calgary Centre would be a much faster way to start, wouldn't you think?

 


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

nicky wrote:

The new Forum poll shows the NDP leading with voters who make 80 to 100 K a year and barely behind the Consrvatives with voters who make more than that. 

This confirms other polls which show that the party since electing tom Mulcair has greatly expanded its appeal to upper income voters.

I wonder if this is a long term trend which reflects recent US voting pattersn where the better educated and wealthier have recoiled against the right wing drift of the Republicans.

 

Actually you'rer wrong, according to Forum, the NDP actually LEADS among those with household incomes of over $100k...of course haviong household income of over $100k  doesn't exactly mean you live in Rosedale - you could be a husband a wife both working as TTC drivers in Toronto and be over the $100k mark


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

That's right Stock - there are unionized workers who work in the industrial sectors, for example, who make a good wage, and with overtime, may well make over a 100 grand. Ditto for unionized healthcare workers and so on with overtime. And a combined income of over 100 grand would be quite doable. I'm not surprised the NDP leading in this economic class.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Wilf Day wrote:

gregcbu wrote:
Forum Research.

NDP 37

CPC 30

LPC 22

http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/politics/has-it-ever-been-so-good-to-be-...

Full results.

As always, most polls lead us to make simplistic assumptions. This time we get to see (page 7) how people say they have shifted since a year ago:

Even as the NDP tops the polls, only 81% of people who say they voted NDP a year ago still support the NDP. But 22% of those who say they voted Bloc now support the NDP, 21% of those who say they voted Liberal, and even 11% of those who say they voted Conservative, plus 31% of those who voted Green.

Very oddly, of 1,529 polled, it seems 1,490 claim they voted a year ago; only 2.6% did not vote? Implausible. It does not show us how those 39 would vote today, just as well, too small a sample. But the 2011 election study shows 56.6% of those who did not vote in 2008 voted in 2011, while about 5% of those who voted in 2008 did not vote in 2011 (mostly 2008 Liberals and Quebec Conservatives). 

OO with her data base would be able to analyze this better. 

Totally plausible--this supports what I have been saying for years: more people vote than answer polls. Over 50% of the population vote and single digits do polls. This is why polls over sample political activists and the Green party which I have argued actually has a knot of core supporters who answer every poll. The idea that people talk to a pollster and do not vote has always been a fiction. People vote but hang up on pollsters-- once people understand that they will be better able to understand how polling works.

Someone who does not vote is not going to be interested or waste time talking to a pollster about political choices-- what is the oddity about that?


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Replying to Stockholm #93:

I think that Forum Research categories refer to individual income, not household income.

While some unionized workers certainly make more than $100,000 per yearI think it is safe to say they would be a small minority of that category The NDP seems to be making substantial inroads among the more affluent.

Those making between $80 and 100 divide ; N 44 C 30 L 22. Those over 100: N 33 C 29 L 23. 

The party seems to me to be potentially breaking new ground here, something that has escaped comment in the press.

 


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

It is definitely HOUSEHOLD income not individual. If it was individual income there would be wayyyyy fewer people in the $100k and over category since only about 3% of Canadians individually earn over 100k


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Check out this new Quebec federal poll by Leger - NDP at 52% - an all time high...the BQ is down in the teens as are the Libs and Cons

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/352744/mulcair-ecrase-ses-rivaux

With numbers like this, the NDP would possibly win all but one or two ridings in the whole province.


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Leger and CROP, both of course Quebec based polls, consistemtly have the NDP higher in Quebec than do the national polls.

Forum, for example, recently gave the NDP 41% in Quebec but a record national result of 37%. 

Substitute the Leger Quebec result of 52% and the NDP is running at more than 40% nation wide with a lead over the Cons of 10% or more.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

I've really noted an uptick in mini "Trudeau mania" with head cheerleading by TorStar, and of course all things liberal. I'm thinking they are getting on the trudeau bandwagon to influence him to throw his hat into the ring whic suggests he would win outright. I'm wondering if this will all go to his head.

 

I sure do like seeing those NDP numbers and particularly in Quebec.

 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I so bored with Trudeau, I mean aside from his last name what has he achived? Let compare him to Nikki Ashton who ran for the NDP leadership. Nikki Ashton fought a very public battle against Vale and got Micheal Moore onside, fought very hard to try and save the wheat board, and became a role model for young people. What has Justin done, he punched out a senator. Anything else?

Buddy Kat
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Joined: Sep 21 2006

He kicked the shit out of the lippy conservative senator...feather in the cap there...he stuck up for a female MP that was being berated by the piece of shit con...I think it was an NDP female MP too.So you at least we know he has integrity which is something the Liberals lack 100%.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

janfromthebruce wrote:

I've really noted an uptick in mini "Trudeau mania" with head cheerleading by TorStar, and of course all things liberal.

 

Get a load of this grossly misleading headline:

Justin Trudeau could lead Liberals to first place: poll

Based on a horrendous misreading of Angus Reid's data:

Quote:
Across the country, 35 per cent of decided voters would back the NDP in the next federal election — up 2 points since May — while the Tories are at 34 per cent, according to the Angus Reid Public Opinion poll done with the Toronto Star.

...

All eyes are now on Trudeau, who conceded last week that he would rethink his previously announced decision to stay out of the race as well.

Forty-two per cent of Canadians think he would do a good job, easily outpacing the next most popular choice, Quebec MP Marc Garneau, who has the support of 23 per cent.

http://www.thespec.com/news/article/745232--justin-trudeau-could-lead-li...

And still not a single news story, only David Atkin's blog, of the most recent Forum poll.


Brachina
Online
Joined: Feb 15 2012

Buddy Kat wrote:

He kicked the shit out of the lippy conservative senator...feather in the cap there...he stuck up for a female MP that was being berated by the piece of shit con...I think it was an NDP female MP too.So you at least we know he has integrity which is something the Liberals lack 100%.

I don't doubt Justin's chivalry, but that and a last name isn't solid enough to launch a leadership campaign. To get an understanding of how out of touch fantasy of Justin is Liberals see him as new, fresh, the man to lead the next generation. The reality is his support is weakest amoung young voter, strongest amoung older voters which says it all about nostogia. Also Mulcair is a master of provoking rage in in his opponents when he chooses too and lets be honest Trudeau is going to be easily baited.

MegB
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Joined: Nov 28 2001

Closed.


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