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Latest polling thread - June 18, 2012

NorthReport
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NorthReport
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Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

National Post post ask a question poll on FB: just week ago

https://www.facebook.com/?sk=question&id=10151020737044595&post_id=10151...

NDP - 876 (37%)
CON - 841 (36%)
LIB - 362 (15%)
GRN - 77 (3%)
BQ - 11 (1%)

OTHER - 99 (4%)
UNDECIDED - 95 (4%)


Ippurigakko
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Angus Reid June 16

NDP beat CON first time this Angus polls

 

NDP 35% (+2)
CON 34% (-3)
LIB 19% (+1)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 5% (+1)

Atlantic
NDP 36% (+8)
CON 30% (-2)
LIB 24% (-11)
GRN 10% (+4)

Quebec
NDP 42% (-1)
BQ 23% (-4)
LIB 16% (+6)
CON 16% (=)
GRN 3% (+1)

Ontario
CON 38% (-3)
NDP 32% (+1)
LIB 24% (+1)
GRN 6% (+2)

Prairies
CON 55% (+6)
NDP 33% (+10)
LIB 10% (-11)
GRN 3% (+1)

Alberta
CON 58% (-3)
NDP 22% (-1)
LIB 13% (=)
GRN 7% (+7)

BC
NDP 40% (=)
CON 34% (-7)
LIB 19% (+6)
GRN 7% (+1)

Male
CON 39% (-4)
NDP 33% (+5)
LIB 17% (-1)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 4% (+1)

Female
NDP 37% (-2)
CON 30% (-1)
LIB 20% (+3)
GRN 7% (+3)
BQ 6% (=)

18-34
NDP 40% (=)
CON 25% (-5)
LIB 18% (+3)
GRN 9% (+4)
BQ 8% (-1)

35-54
NDP 35% (+2)
CON 34% (-4)
LIB 20% (+3)
GRN 5% (=)
BQ 5% (-1)
 
55+
CON 44% (+3)
NDP 30% (+1)
LIB 18% (-3)
BQ 5% (-1)
GRN 3% (+2)

2011 voters
NDP <- NDP 85%, GRN 18%, LIB 18%, BQ 13%, CON 7%
CON <- CON 86%, LIB 7%, GRN 2%, NDP 1%, BQ 0%
LIB <- LIB 72%, NDP 8%, CON 5%, BQ 5%, GRN 1%
GRN <- GRN 78%, NDP 2%, BQ 2%, LIB 1%, CON 0%
BQ <- BQ 80%, NDP 4%, LIB 3%, CON 1%, GRN 0%

 

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012.06.18_Politics...


mark_alfred
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Re:  Angus Reid June 16

Good news that the NDP is ahead of the Conservatives in this poll.  The finding that the NDP would slip into third if the Liberals choose either Garneau or Trudeau as their permanent leader is troubling, though.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
So how do we neutralize the Trudeau factor? God are Canadian so stupid as to pick a name over substance?

Vansterdam Kid
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I think it will neutralize itself to some degree. While they would likely both lead a more formidable Liberal Party than Dion or Ignatieff, the Liberals have a lot more problems than leadership and neither are in the league of a Pearson, Trudeau Sr. or a Chretien. And hey, even though Martin was a bust (and a centre-right one at that) he had more accomplished on paper than Garneau or Trudeau. Garneau at least has the Astronaut credentials, though it took moving to a pretty safely Liberal (but maybe not anymore) seat to get elected. Trudeau is more Margaret than Pierre though, so..... Yeah.


janfromthebruce
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perhaps it's a gender thing but because someone flew in space aka astronaut does not rock my boat - that goes with hockey players and other sports figures. So what else has Garneau done that would be impressive?


Brachina
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I mean what does it say about people that they'd vote for a guy with little actual creditials, I mean the what's Justin's major political achievements or organizational achievements? Mulcair decades of political experience, has fought for federalism on the frontlines, was Canada's most progressive enviroment minister up against his own Leader to do so no less, having been a federal fincance critc, house leader, deputy leader, and by 2015 an experienced leader of the official opposition, provinicial an enviroment minister, industry critic, deputy house leader, the head of that Anglo rights group before it went nuts, served as head of some kind of Union, fought sexual harrassment, was a public servant, and unlike Trudeau, Mulcair worked in a Textile factory when he was younger instead of being born with a silver spoon in his mouth like Trudeau. Rationally I know that Trudeau and Mark's support is a mile wide and a millimetre thick like the CAQ's was, but that the best Official Opposition leader we've ever had (not counting Jack who had the job all to briefly), could be nudged aside even in a poll for a fameous name on a ballot, the liberals sports critc offends me and makes me lose respect for voters who would even contemplate it. Still while Van your surely right, I do hope the NDP has a plan just in case we need it for destroying Tredeau's unearned popularity. And same with Mark.

Arthur Cramer
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Brachina to answer your question yes. The libs will campaign saying canadians are centerist and will get a majority. Treudeau will be pm in 2015.I am willing to be convinced otherwise but so far no one here has been able to make a counter case that makes me think canadians care whether there is any substance to trudeau or not. He will run for sure! Wouldn't you if you knew everyone wanted to make you king?

Arthur Cramer
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Jacob Two-Two
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I agree with VK. When people say they'd vote Liberal again if such-and-such were leader, they're imagining that the Liberals somehow magically stop being so lame. When the new leader comes and that doesn't happen, they'll be underwhelmed all over again. The only strategy the NDP needs is to keep being effective and progressive and the rest will take care of itself. 


Arthur Cramer
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Jacob Two-Two
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I think Trudeau will run and win, but it's not as simple as you make it out to be. Though few media commentators have noticed, the center in Canada has changed and I predict it will change more as things continue to go downhill. people are far less enamoured of low taxes, small government, and the "free market" than they were ten years ago. So what will Trudeau do? Suddenly come on like a big lefty? A winning strategy in principle except that his own party will turn on him and tear itself apart. Trudeau will become leader and might even grow into the role somewhat, but will not be able to distinguish himself from the Conservatives in the way that Canadians want to hear. He might pull a few votes from the NDP in a best case scenario, but will likely end up taking even more from the Cons. Notice that the Forum poll predicts 32% for us with Libs and Cons tied at 28%. Most of the support is coming from the right. I rather doubt it will even be that good for him once he has to actually do something. He's no match for Mulcair at the game of politics.


Jacob Two-Two
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mark_alfred
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I doubt Trudeau will run, but even if he does, I don't think he'd be much of a threat to the NDP.  I just can't see people returning to the Liberal Party under him in an election.  However, stranger things have happened in politics, so who knows?  But I think the Angus Reid poll shows that some people yearn for the more dynamic Liberal Party of the past.  However, neither Garneau nor Trudeau would be able to live up to that fancy, and thus actual polling numbers would not reach what the Angus Reid poll says.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

The candidate I am most worried about is Dominic Leblanc. He actually has some substance. Good thing the Liberal party doesn't like him. Canadians love Trudeau for his celebrity, yet he is a poor political performer. Trudeau is like the Belinda Stronach of the Liberal leadership mill. 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

Arthur Cramer wrote:
Brachina to answer your question yes. The libs will campaign saying canadians are centerist and will get a majority. Treudeau will be pm in 2015.I am willing to be convinced otherwise but so far no one here has been able to make a counter case that makes me think canadians care whether there is any substance to trudeau or not. He will run for sure! Wouldn't you if you knew everyone wanted to make you king?

I've calmed down. I remembered when Mulcair was throwing Trudeau in Bob Rae's face, Mulcair wasn't worried about Trudeau running at all. Support for Trudeau and even that space guy is as flimsy as it was for the CAQ. It was high when it was just a fantasy, but when it became a reality it dropped like a rock.

socialdemocrati...
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mark_alfred wrote:

Re:  Angus Reid June 16

Good news that the NDP is ahead of the Conservatives in this poll.  The finding that the NDP would slip into third if the Liberals choose either Garneau or Trudeau as their permanent leader is troubling, though.

Take it with a huge grain of salt. There's something fishy with their numbers.

We're not comparing apples to apples. They're asking a very different question when they throw a new Liberal leader into the picture. At no other point are they taking into account "undecideds". But suddenly, when they pick a new Liberal leader, they make huge allowances for something like 20% undecideds. Then they take them out of the picture, and artificially boost everything. In the other polls, the undecideds aren't accounted for.

According to Angus Reid, if the Liberals pick virtually ANYONE, Conservatives and New Democrats suddenly poll at 25% and 25%.

Even if you take out undecideds, the Liberals picking fucking David McGuinty knocks New Democrats down 5%. And that 5% doesn't go Liberal or Conservative. It basically disappears. That makes ZERO sense: where did it go? And David McGuinty? Really?

Compare that to another polling organization, who said that Trudeau's Liberals would tie with the Conservatives at 28%, giving the NDP a clear lead.

So if it's not that "the Liberals are on the rebound with a new leader"... what's a safe conclusion?

The safe conclusion is that support for the NDP is soft.

Which makes sense, considering this is the first time we're the official opposition. People didn't suddenly become passionate New Democrats, or principled social democrats. People lent us their vote. They're saying "let's give these orange guys a shot".

We already knew that. It's good that we have people's interest, but we have to work hard to turn that into real support.


UWSofty
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Harris Decima PDF

NDP 32 (-2)

Cons 31 (+1)

Liberal 23 (+3)

Bloc 5 (-2)

Green 7 (-1)

 

More polling about pottential Liberal leadership candidates. Only interesting note is Naheed Nenshi is asked about and does very poorly, which is surprsing in my opinion.


Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

UWSofty wrote:

More polling about pottential Liberal leadership candidates. Only interesting note is Naheed Nenshi is asked about and does very poorly, which is surprsing in my opinion.

 

He's not really that well-known outside Alberta and politics wonk circles. It doesn't surprise me.


Brachina
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socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

Re:  Angus Reid June 16

Good news that the NDP is ahead of the Conservatives in this poll.  The finding that the NDP would slip into third if the Liberals choose either Garneau or Trudeau as their permanent leader is troubling, though.

Take it with a huge grain of salt. There's something fishy with their numbers.

We're not comparing apples to apples. They're asking a very different question when they throw a new Liberal leader into the picture. At no other point are they taking into account "undecideds". But suddenly, when they pick a new Liberal leader, they make huge allowances for something like 20% undecideds. Then they take them out of the picture, and artificially boost everything. In the other polls, the undecideds aren't accounted for.

According to Angus Reid, if the Liberals pick virtually ANYONE, Conservatives and New Democrats suddenly poll at 25% and 25%.

Even if you take out undecideds, the Liberals picking fucking David McGuinty knocks New Democrats down 5%. And that 5% doesn't go Liberal or Conservative. It basically disappears. That makes ZERO sense: where did it go? And David McGuinty? Really?

Compare that to another polling organization, who said that Trudeau's Liberals would tie with the Conservatives at 28%, giving the NDP a clear lead.

So if it's not that "the Liberals are on the rebound with a new leader"... what's a safe conclusion?

The safe conclusion is that support for the NDP is soft.

Which makes sense, considering this is the first time we're the official opposition. People didn't suddenly become passionate New Democrats, or principled social democrats. People lent us their vote. They're saying "let's give these orange guys a shot".

We already knew that. It's good that we have people's interest, but we have to work hard to turn that into real support.

Well said.

Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Read this:

http://tcnorris.blogspot.ca/2012/06/justin-trudeau-as-kim-campbell.html

Justin Trudeau as Kim Campbell

A poll released today by Angus Reid offers the suggestion that the Liberal Party, if led by Justin Trudeau, would leap to first place ahead of the Conservatives and NDP.

We have seen this before. In 1993 the press and polling firms eagerly produced a series of polls suggesting that if the PCs of the day chose Kim Campbell as leader, a third PC majority would be at hand. 

The polls also continued to ask the standard who would you vote for question.  The conditionalized if Kim Campbell question produced, in some cases, spectacular results for the PCs who had been in a deep polling funk for a couple of years (as low as 11% one month in 1992 in the Gallup Poll).

A Gallup poll in the Globe in April 1993 reported that with Campbell as leader the PCs would have 50% of popular support while the Liberals would have just 29%.  However, in the regular Gallup Poll all through this period where the 'which party would you vote for if an election were held today' type question was asked, the Liberals always led the Conservatives and never fell below 39%. Even when Campbell did become leader and had a honeymoon period (which evapourated as the 1993 campaign unfolded), she never did as well as she did in those early conditionalized surveys.

Once you depart from the regular question, the whole polling exercise becomes quite different from ordinary surveys, and the results have we have seen as about as meaningful as they were in April 1993.
  
Angus Reid has also polled last year on Canadians' favourite Prime Minister since 1968.  Pierre Trudeau finished ahead of Harper shortly after he won his majority despite the fact that Mr. Trudeau had left office nearly 30 years earlier. Pierre Trudeau is clearly now an icon (largely I suspect due to the popularity of the Charter). However, an abstract icon is quite distinct from a flesh and blood politician who delights some and annoys others. I suspect the father's enduring popularity influences the apparent support for the son, who, it is likely, is not yet well known to most Canadians. In the longer term it will be the reality of the son and not the father that will matter.

The popularity of the father very much makes this a politics of yearning for an earlier, better time if you are a Liberal, a politics of nostalgia.


adma
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Stockholm wrote:

The popularity of the father very much makes this a politics of yearning for an earlier, better time if you are a Liberal, a politics of nostalgia.

 

Maybe not so much popularity as familiarity related, but IIRC a reason why George W. Bush led in a lot of the Republican-nominee polls around 1998/99ish or so was that he had the same name as his father, to the point where a fair number of pollees probably, on a name-cue basis, mistook him for his father...


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

I think the safe conclusion about a drop in NDP support with virtually any Liberal is that at this point most voters can imagine whatever they want about these candidates because they have only a smattering of knowledge about them. Therefore they tend to see them through rose-coloured glasses if they have Liberal party tendencies and many voters who no longer vote for them have voted for them in the past. As the leadership campaign wears on most, if not all, these images will be tarnished by reality. I am not saying that a new Liberal leader will make no difference. There will probably be one who does better than the others but it is highly unlikely they will all be seen as even a respectable choice for future leader. In a typical scenario, the chosen one will have a honeymoon phase bump in the polls but with three years to go to the election, any longterm gain will have to be won in an environment in which the Liberals are seen as a rump third party - not impossible but not an easy task.


wage zombie
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Joined: Dec 8 2004

I don't think Justin Trudeau would be a bad choice for the Liberals, but I think he would be a poor choice if they are looking to be a contender in 2015.  I think he would be a good choice in the sense that there's nobody else, Trudeau won't be ready by 2015, and the Liberals won't be contenders in 2015 anyway.  Given all of that they might as well pick him.  It would make more sense for them to pick Trudeau now for 2019 rather than finding another mediocre portential savior focussed on 2015.

I don't think they have yet understood what's involved with rebuilding a party.  They still don't get it.  I could see Trudeau being someone who could move the rebuilding process forward but 2 years would be insufficient.


socialdemocrati...
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jerrym wrote:

I think the safe conclusion about a drop in NDP support with virtually any Liberal is that at this point most voters can imagine whatever they want about these candidates because they have only a smattering of knowledge about them. Therefore they tend to see them through rose-coloured glasses if they have Liberal party tendencies and many voters who no longer vote for them have voted for them in the past. As the leadership campaign wears on most, if not all, these images will be tarnished by reality. I am not saying that a new Liberal leader will make no difference. There will probably be one who does better than the others but it is highly unlikely they will all be seen as even a respectable choice for future leader. In a typical scenario, the chosen one will have a honeymoon phase bump in the polls but with three years to go to the election, any longterm gain will have to be won in an environment in which the Liberals are seen as a rump third party - not impossible but not an easy task.

Yeah, I think that's accurate. There's a lot of "potential support" if the Liberals get their act together. The issue is whether they actually will get their act together, and if a new leader helps achieve that.The appeal of something new sounds good in theory. But what happens when the new thing is pretty much the same as the old thing?

Their problem goes far deeper than leadership. I also think Trudeau would interfere with those fixes. He's window dressing, backed by a failed apparatus. If they pick him, they'll celebrate prematurely without doing the actual hard work of reform.

The last thing is that Justin is not his father.

I respect his father. He showed a lot of integrity: "the state has no business in the bedrooms of the nation", working with the NDP on expanding the social safety net, the well-intentioned NEP... Yeah, he's no Tommy Douglas. But the point is, Pierre Trudeau built a reputation out of real fights, real principles, and real achievements.

The appeal of Justin seems to be 100% nostalgia, and unless he can create a real cause around his candidacy like his dad, the nostalgia will start to wear very thin.


Winston
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Joined: Feb 17 2007

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

The appeal of Justin seems to be 100% nostalgia, and unless he can create a real cause around his candidacy like his dad, 

In the absence of a cause, why don't we start with a slogan?

How about this Trudeau favourite: "The Just (me) Society"?

Or given the Trudeau whelp's pugilist tendencies: "The hand is strong"?


Winston
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Joined: Feb 17 2007

double post


knownothing
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Joined: Mar 24 2011

This is all Liberal propaganda...I still think Trudeau will run for the NDP in 2015


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