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Latest polling thread - June 18, 2012

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Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Huff Po lists Rae and Truedau as 2 of the top 10 MPs in the House. The listed Megan Leslie, Charlie Angus, and Niclole Trumel as well. Who was missing. Why that lazy lay-about. Tom Mulcair. I mean can the Huff Post be any more blatant. Oh by the way. also on the top 10, Harper. Disgusting.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

New from Ipsos:

 

NDP 38% (+3 over last month), Con 35% (-2), Lib 18% (-1). And amazing Ontario numbers: NDP 40%, Con 34%, Lib 22%.

 

http://www.globalmontreal.com/ndp+support+soars+past+the+conservatives+p...


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

To be fair, during most of the session of Parliament that just ended Mulcair was busy running for the leadership and was not in the house...Turmel gets credit for being one of the 10 best MPs. Mulcair will get his chance next time.

Meanwhile Ipsos has a new poll:

NDP - 38% (+3)

CPC - 35% (-2)

Libs - 18% (-1)

 

and NDP support has hit 40% in ONTARIO!!

http://www.globalnews.ca/ndp+support+soars+past+the+conservatives+poll/6...


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Interesting: Global's quickly rewritten the headline, from "NDP Support Soars Past the Conservatives" to "NDP, Tories in statistical dead heat."

 

 

http://www.globalnews.ca/ndp+tories+in+statistical+dead+heat+poll/644266...


UWSofty
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Joined: Dec 4 2002

The Canada.com article has more details, and a better headline :-)

"NDP ahead of Tories in Canada-wide poll as Liberals struggle"

http://www.canada.com/business/ahead+Tories+Canada+wide+poll+Liberals+st...


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

National Post title and good pic of Mulcair

NDP out ahead of the Tories with 38% support, Liberals struggling: poll Happy Friday night - orange is rocking


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

Stockholm wrote:

To be fair, during most of the session of Parliament that just ended Mulcair was busy running for the leadership and was not in the house...Turmel gets credit for being one of the 10 best MPs. Mulcair will get his chance next time.

Meanwhile Ipsos has a new poll:

NDP - 38% (+3)

CPC - 35% (-2)

Libs - 18% (-1)

 

and NDP support has hit 40% in ONTARIO!!

http://www.globalnews.ca/ndp+support+soars+past+the+conservatives+poll/6...

With these numbers the NDP would win a majority.


bekayne
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Joined: Jan 23 2006

felixr wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

To be fair, during most of the session of Parliament that just ended Mulcair was busy running for the leadership and was not in the house...Turmel gets credit for being one of the 10 best MPs. Mulcair will get his chance next time.

Meanwhile Ipsos has a new poll:

NDP - 38% (+3)

CPC - 35% (-2)

Libs - 18% (-1)

 

and NDP support has hit 40% in ONTARIO!!

http://www.globalnews.ca/ndp+support+soars+past+the+conservatives+poll/6...

With these numbers the NDP would win a majority.

The Ontario numbers would lead to around 45 seats each for the NDP & Conservatives according to the UBC forecaster


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

in 2008, Ontario CON 51 (39%) LIB 38 (34%) so this poll Ipsos likely NDP 50 (40%) CON 38 (34%)

anyone surprised Ontario NDP rise to 40% now?


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

I believe that part of the rise in NDP support comes from the work of the provincial NDP, who chose not to plunge the province into another election.

That, plus the strong showing Mulcair has been maintaining as Leader of the Opposition.

Can the Conservative attack ads be far behind????

 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Who knows. Many people are surprised they haven't come already. One person spectulated its because they're worried it will unify the antiharper vote behind Mulcair.

Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

That and there's years to another election so a big anti-NDP campaign now wouldn't necessarily have results when it counts.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Actually the point if the pre election attack ads aren't to directly defeat the opposition, its to soften them up later for defeat by sowing seeds, negative ideas, for later use. When the attacks against Iggy and Dion were unleash the Liberals didn't immediately drop like a stone in the polls, they were doing okay, with a rarw good month now and again. The ads didn't pay,off until the election where election attacks and events allowed those seeds to grew into electoral defeat for Liberals. Also key is that the pre election attacks happened really early before the liberal leaders had a chance to define themselves and so the seeds were sowed when minds were most furtile, had they been sown later they would have had to compete with pre existing impressions. Also remember that Liberal attack ads against Harper failed in 2011. What does this mean for Mulcair? 1- By putting off the attack ads means Mulcair has plenty of time to define himself in the minds of Canadians, the longer Harper's attacks waits, the less furtile ground awaits. Plus Mulcair was already well respected and known in Quebec. Mulcair has already shown he's a strong leader of Opposition so far and that he has convictions. 2- Less time for the ideas to grow roots. 3- Mulcair and the NDPs popularity appears to be causing concern and panic amoung the Tories with Harper turning to Brian Mulerony of all people and Jean Charest Mr. Popularity himself for help when right after the election Harper and Co. Thought they could finally say FU to Quebec because they thought they didn't need Quebec to win a Majority government with both the West and Ontario behind them. Then the NDP starts leading in the polls outside of Quebec and now even in Ontario and as I said panic sets in and now thier affraid to attack with ads and affraid not to at the same time. In other News Mulcair at Sask Convention 2012 http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Mulcair%2Bdefends%2Bstance%2Breso...

janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Or by doing attack ads reinforces their "dirty tricks" campaigns they are now in "hot water" for from their elections: election expenses, robocalls, and leader attack ads. By unleashing them now, reenforces the impression that the HarperCons are about dirty campaigns and lack ethics and transparency.

I think it's really that, they will face a backlash.


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

And remember, too, that the Harper Tories have already backfired on the anti-NDP attack front--the Hitler/Nazi smear thing, y'know...


Jacob Two-Two
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Joined: Jan 16 2002

The "dutch disease -hates the west" thing too. That didn't go as planned at all. I think they want to make attack ads but can't figure out what to attack about. They quite logically want to be sure that the angle of attack has potential traction before they commit millions of dollars, but every time they try something it goes nowhere and the NDP go up again, so they're just sitting on the money that's set aside to define Mulcair waiting for that one smear that people will actually buy into. If something good comes up, you can bet the ads will be out in a flash, but so far they've got nothing. It must be very frustrating :)


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

janfromthebruce wrote:

Or by doing attack ads reinforces their "dirty tricks" campaigns they are now in "hot water" for from their elections: election expenses, robocalls, and leader attack ads. By unleashing them now, reenforces the impression that the HarperCons are about dirty campaigns and lack ethics and transparency.

I think it's really that, they will face a backlash.

Excellent point.

Consider that almost anyone who pays any attention at all to politics is saying "so when are the Conservatives gonna put out some attack ads on Mulcair?" "What are the attack ads gonna look like?" "Isn't it getting too late for any attack ads?" "The polls are getting too good for the NDP, an attack ad can't be too far behind!"

If politics is a game of expectations, then the expectation of an attack ad makes them almost completely useless. If politics is a game of perceptions, then the perception that the conservatives will just put out an attack ad to define Mulair reinforces the perception that Harper is more concerned with cheap tactics than good ideas.

I think a lot of people are on guard for those attack ads, which is exactly why they'll be ineffective, perhaps even counter-productive for what the Conservatives are trying to achieve.

So they're waiting for the NDP to make a mistake. That's why it's vital to not get distracted with issues that can divide the left.

 


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

So they're waiting for the NDP to make a mistake.

 

I believe they - and the Liberals, too - thought "Dutch Disease" was it.

Given opportunity to backtrack, Mulcair pressed on. Gleeful titters of he's self-distructing! were heard throughout the land. And the party's - and Mulcair's - polling improved.

I think this perhaps has shocked and confused Conservative strategists into inaction. It won't last, but for the moment they're acting as though for the first time they don't know what to do.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

And the other thing has to do with "trust" and "integrity" and being "consistent". The Canadian "Dutch Disease" was also confirmed by other reliable sources and thus reaffirmed the NDP position.

Also remember, and as stated in a recent June 2012 Walrus Mag article, "Calgary Reconsidered" that "The sea of Conservative blue that covers most of the city on each federal and provincial election night hides the fact that in many ridings at least half the electorate voted for another party." Further down the page, it further adds the following: "The barzen braying that erupts from some of Calgary's best-known and most heavily amplified mouths--Ralph Klein and Stephen Harper, Ezra Levant and Barry Cooper, rod Love and Danielle Smith--tends to drown out the stident rebuttals from other local voices." Calgary and by extension Alberta is not "monolithic" and thus one notes that the credibility of the voice, combined with the issues at hand are putting the NDP on top of the polls. Mulcair has not gained the numbers of "smiling Jack" and in fact one could suggest that is more our policy positions and credibility of a party (to not do "bait and switch" which is provided our momentum.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

janfromthebruce wrote:

Also remember, and as stated in a recent June 2012 Walrus Mag article, "Calgary Reconsidered" that "The sea of Conservative blue that covers most of the city on each federal and provincial election night hides the fact that in many ridings at least half the electorate voted for another party."

A detail largely overlooked from the recent Ipsos poll:

Quote:
In Alberta, the Tories (67 per cent) are well ahead, and are trailed by the NDP (24 per cent), while the Liberals (five per cent) and Greens (five per cent) are at the bottom.

I haven't seen a result like that before. It seems like even the Alberta vote is polarizing, with right-leaning Liberals shifting to the Conservatives and the left-leaning moving to the NDP.


Jacob Two-Two
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Joined: Jan 16 2002

Even Alberta is coming around to the Cons' arrogance. Given the contempt shown recently to the deputy premier and supporting Wild Rose and such, a few seats may well fall into our hands.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

 

A detail largely overlooked from the recent Ipsos poll:

Quote:
In Alberta, the Tories (67 per cent) are well ahead, and are trailed by the NDP (24 per cent), while the Liberals (five per cent) and Greens (five per cent) are at the bottom.

I haven't seen a result like that before. It seems like even the Alberta vote is polarizing, with right-leaning Liberals shifting to the Conservatives and the left-leaning moving to the NDP.

I hadn't noticed that either.  Especially the collapse of support for the (so-called) Green Party.

You know that the NDP's 24% support is much more concentrated in Edmonton (and perhaps Calgary as well), so with the new seats that are coming in 2015, winning 4-6 of Edmonton's seats suddenly looks possible.

I hope the NDP candidate in Calgary Centre gets a very well-run campaign behind him or her.  I can remember that after 1986, when the NDP almost defeated the P.C. candidate in a by-election near Edmonton, in 1988 Ross Harvey won Edmonton East; the first time an NDP candidate was ever elected in Alberta.

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

seven different polling firms NDP is ahead Cons but 2 more (Ekos and Innovative) still wait and one pollster Abacus hardcore conservative, next day will see Abacus release if NDP beat CON, let challenge Abacus. lol


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

exactly, and building on the last 2 posts, so if the concentration of progressive vote is concentrated in the urban areas, such as Calgary and Edmoniton and there was another area, provinciallhy where the NDP provincially did well, why with further polarization, the NDP could be quite competitive.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

JeffWells wrote:

I think this perhaps has shocked and confused Conservative strategists into inaction. It won't last, but for the moment they're acting as though for the first time they don't know what to do.

 

Well, they've done something. First attack ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz6KaYRdt6w

 


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

I find that attack ad to be pretty weak and likely to only help the Tories fire up their own base. Interestingly they're not going after Mulcair's character and instead doing that old "NDP will tax and spend" routine that has been done to death.


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

Latest Abacus has:

CON- 35

NDP - 35

LIB - 20

 

With Trudeau as leader:

CON - 33

LIB - 32

NDP - 24


A bit ridiculous, but there it is

 

http://abacusdata.ca/2012/06/26/federal-politics-tories-and-ndp-tied-at-35/


Arthur Cramer
Online
Joined: Nov 30 2010

That abacus poll with Trudeau even if it is ridiculous goes to show how little people actaully think about what it means when they decide how they are going to vote. It shows people don't remember how the years have actually been for them, but instead "remember" how the years have been for them based on what the MSM has told them.

But, i still say Trudeau is going to run, and I am convinced he believes that if he gets the leadership of the LPC, there willbe NOTHING to stop his becoming PM. And given how basically stupid, so many Canadian voters really are when it comes down to it, I don't think it is impossible to think that may happen.

This Trudeau frenzy is making me very, very nervous. If anyone wants to explain with examples why Trudeau could never win, I am open to hearing it, but I stand by my feeling that this is a real possiblity, and that the Libs may be back in power before I finish saying "Ready, Aye Ready".

I simply cannot understand how any of my fellow citizens who don't vote NDP want me to think they actually think when they are considering putting this con-artist, in charge. It is completely and totally mind blowing.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Well Arthur, Trudeau would have to actually have to talk about "vision" (his vision) for Canada, and his ideas about policy in different areas of national importance. That's the problem with a "crowned prince" and he will actually have to get some gravus, which so far he has under his belt "many speaking dates talking to high school students about youth empowerment" but he doesn't have anything of his own "empowerment" to show for it (thus empty platitudes) and one recent boxing match.

Mark my word, the Cons want him as leader as an easy mark and to suck some vote from the NDP. For us, it depends "what he runs on" - is he another pretend lib progressive. Personally I have no read idea where he stands on issues because beyond his silly twitter feed, he is just a carature.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

because canadian vote trudeau as PERSON, not party! How blind they are!


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