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It looks like that lead for the PCs is becoming quite insurmountable.
How so? They look to be holding their 2010 percentage, it is the NDP that has vaulted up and the PCs which are down. Given the numbers, it looks as if the Liberal vote held whereas there is a straight-line switchover from the PCs to the NDP.
Cardy is trailing by about 10 percentage points, is in third place, and only a few polls remain. I think it is now safe to call this one for the PCs.
How so? as the official opposition, the Liberals should have been able to take this by-election. Instead, all they managed to do was hold their ground. It was almost as bad for them as it was for the PC's, and it will make it much harder for the Liberals to present themselves as the ONLY alternative to the PC's next time.
Cardy also more than doubled the NDP's actual raw vote total from the 2010 general election result in the riding, even with the usual dramatic decline in voter turnout compared to the general election.
Change in percentage share of the vote for each party from 2010:
2010 2012
PC 56.57% 38.3%
Lib 28.40% 31.3%
NDP 8.97% 27.3%
Green 6.05% 1.6%
Ind NA 1.5%
thanks for showing the vote share in comparison with raw and also percentage numbers. Cardy did very well as a parachut candidate in a tough riding.
New Democratic Party Leader Dominic Cardy says his byelection defeat in Rothesay on Monday shows his party needs to continue modernizing.
Cardy dramatically increased the NDP's share of the vote in Rothesay but he still finished third behind the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals.
Cardy was hoping to become the first New Democrat to sit in the legislature in seven years.
The NDP leader earned about 28 per cent of the vote, which he said was a huge improvement over the eight per cent the party won in the southern New Brunswick riding in the 2010 election.
"My goal as NDP leader is to make sure our party can take government. And this was a first shot for us to try out our new campaign techniques," he said.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/26/nb-rothesay...
looks like PC swing to NDP (+18 pp) - PC lose point -18%
Am i only think Dominic Cardy looks like Bob Rae? lol