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Latest polling thread - June 18, 2012

108 replies [Last post]

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Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Ippurgakko:

That is some great insight! Great  post!


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Good point here:

Quote:
He’s associated more with style than substance. His official role in the House, Johnston noted, is as Liberal caucus critic for post-secondary education, youth and amateur sport. “It’s not,” he said, “economics or foreign policy.”

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/06/25/time-to-gather-round/

His dad had style and substance, and was Justice Minister before trying for the top job.

A few weeks ago the prospect of his entry worried me, but now I'm fairly confident the fantasy that he's ready to lead is a bubble waiting to be popped. He may even be smart enough to know that himself.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Ippurigakko wrote:

because canadian vote trudeau as PERSON, not party! How blind they are!

This IS the insight.

And the shottiness of the polling backs it up. One of the polls that sent Trudeau surging into first place had nonsensical increases in the undecided vote, which were taken out of the equation. They showed that even David McGuinty would somehow cause 5% of NDP voters to disappear. Not vote Liberal. *Disappear*.

"Would you vote for party X if something big changed?" will unsurprisingly yield more enthusiasm than "Would you vote for party X?"

There's always some legitimacy behind the sentiment in the polls. But I think Jeff Wells describes it well. It's a bubble. Whereas some polls underestimate someone's upside (a Jack Layton figure), some polls overestimate it (a Michael Ignatieff figure). The question you have to ask yourself is "as people get to know him better and better, under heavy media scrutiny, with high pressure from their rivals, will people like him more? or less?"


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

yeah, also he tried help Toronto-Danforth byelection but liberal failed. remember that

he popular if canadian vote him because he handsome and pierre's son. but he too young and inexperience just like you said niki ashton too young. right?

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/27/pol-pnp-nanos-survey-pa...

 

Which party is most sensitive to the needs of seniors?
NDP 28.4%
UNSURE 24.3%
CON 17.4%
NONE 14%
LIB 12.1%
GRN 2.1%
BQ 1.3%

Which party is most sensitive to the needs of students?
UNSURE 27%
NDP 25%
NONE 14%
CON 13.6%
LIB 13.1%
GRN 3.6%
BQ 3.6%

Which party is most sensitive to the needs of new Canadians?
UNSURE 31%
NDP 19.9%
CON 17.9%
LIB 17.1%
NONE 9.7%
GRN 2.4%
BQ 1.7%

 

Edit:

Which party is most sensitive to the needs of the unemployed?
NDP 32.9%
UNSURE 23.5%
NONE 14.5%
CON 14.3%
LIB 10.8%
GRN 2.4%
BQ 1.6%

Which party is most sensitive to the needs of small business owners?
UNSURE 26.1%
CON 22.8%
NDP 19.7%
LIB 14.3%
NONE 11.9%
GRN 2.7%
BQ 2.4%


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I

JeffWells wrote:

Good point here:

Quote:
He’s associated more with style than substance. His official role in the House, Johnston noted, is as Liberal caucus critic for post-secondary education, youth and amateur sport. “It’s not,” he said, “economics or foreign policy.”

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/06/25/time-to-gather-round/

His dad had style and substance, and was Justice Minister before trying for the top job.

A few weeks ago the prospect of his entry worried me, but now I'm fairly confident the fantasy that he's ready to lead is a bubble waiting to be popped. He may even be smar t enough to know that himself.

Very easily popped. Justin Trudeau has called Mulcair a grumpy old man. Way to get voters Justin, used the failed discarded hand me downs attacks of the Tories. Once again Justin just shows he's all style no substance.

Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

I'd say that if you aren't at least a little grumpy with the Harper Conservatives, you aren't paying attention. Justin Trudeau isn't paying attention.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Thomas Mulcair is age 58, and would not be considered an old man. Meanwhile Bob Rae is age 63, so I guess he is really really old. Justin sure lacks "class" and sounded "juvenile".


Jacob Two-Two
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Joined: Jan 16 2002

Yeah, Daddio! Your establishment trip isn't my scene, dig? Get with it Pops!

Did it not occur to these people that voters want mature adults in leadership positions? Besides, Mulcair has not been coming off grumpy and people are remarking on it, so this is bound to fall flat. 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

NDP drop but still lead over CON 1 up, Liberal steady 19%

2,093 canadian (over 18)

In the survey, 1,694 people (82%) were decided eligible voters (4% will not vote and 14% undecided or refused to say)

 

Environics June 23
NDP 35 (-1)
CON 33 (+1)
LIB 19 (=)
BQ 7 (+1)
GRN 5 (-2)

Atlantic
NDP 44%
LIB 30%
CON 23%
GRN 2%

Quebec
NDP 44% (-1)
BQ 26% (+1)
LIB 15% (+2)
CON 12% (-3)
GRN 3% (+1)

Ontario
CON 40% (+4)
NDP 30% (-2)
LIB 23% (-3)
GRN 6% (=)

Prairies
CON 43%
NDP 32%
LIB 16%
GRN 6%

Alberta
CON 59%
NDP 21%
LIB 8%
GRN 7%

BC
NDP 37%
CON 34%
LIB 21%
GRN 8%

18-29
NDP 40% (+5)
CON 30% (+9)
LIB 16% (-5)
GRN 9% (-5)
BQ 7% (-2)

30-44
NDP 33% (+2)
CON 31% (-5)
LIB 21% (+4)
BQ 9% (=)
GRN 5% (-2)

45-59
CON 35% (+1)
NDP 32% (-7)
LIB 20% (+1)
GRN 6% (+1)
BQ 5% (+1)

60+
CON 37% (=)
NDP 34% (-5)
LIB 19% (+2)
BQ 5% (+1)
GRN 4% (+1)

Man
CON 37% (+1)
NDP 33% (-1)
LIB 18% (-2)
BQ 6% (+1)
GRN 5% (=)

Woman
NDP 36% (-2)
CON 29% (+1)
LIB 20% (+3)
BQ 8% (=)
GRN 5% (-4)

 

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics-Research---Federal-Vote...


Jacob Two-Two
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Joined: Jan 16 2002

Once again, those Ontario Liberals need to get with the program and go NDP to really cement us in first place. I think this will be easier once they have a real leader that can disappoint people. Right now they're still voting for the brand. They'll probably be shocked to see that their new leader, whoever it is, actually performs worse than Rae.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

I can't tell if that last Environics Poll came out before or after the Conservative attack ads on Mulcair started airing.

If before, then they don't seem to have had a great deal of effect.

 


knownothing
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Joined: Mar 24 2011

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/06/majority-support-for-federal-nd...

 

I don't know where he gets it from but Grenier claims the federal NDP are at 59% in Newfoundland and Labrador.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

New poll from Ekos here:

 

NDP 32.4%

CON 29.3%

LIB 19.2%

GRN 9.5%

 

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/07/01/harpers-conservatives-slide-behind-nd...

 

Some of the numbers don't look quite right to me (the NDP look too low in Quebec, and Green too high everywhere), but I like to see the Conservatives in the twenties.


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

James Moore: "It is my pleasure to introduce to you a man who has a great passion for Canada... Stephen Harper".  :mad2
 
What a bunch of bullshit. Harper is single-handedly tearing this country apart. He's a greedy bastard with no love for anything but power.
 
Damn. I hope the NDP wins in 2015 so we don't have to see an asshole like Harper celebrate our 150th in 2017.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

edit: double post


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

JeffWells wrote:

New poll from Ekos here:

 

NDP 32.4%

CON 29.3%

LIB 19.2%

GRN 9.5%

 

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/07/01/harpers-conservatives-slide-behind-nd...

 

Some of the numbers don't look quite right to me (the NDP look too low in Quebec, and Green too high everywhere), but I like to see the Conservatives in the twenties.

 

since March 11, 2012 (percentage point)

NDP 32.4% (+2.7)
CON 29.3% (-6.1)
LIB 19.2% (-0.4)
GRN 9.5% (+1.4)
BQ  6.5% (+0.7)

Atlantic
NDP 33.9% (+11)
CON 29.5% (-2.4)
LIB 17.8% (-8.3)
GRN 11.1% (-4.1)

Quebec
NDP 33.4% (+2.8)
BQ 27% (+2.5)
LIB 17.3% (+2.2)
CON 11.5% (-11.4)
GRN 7.5% (+1.5)

Ontario
NDP 32.8% (+1.8)
CON 32.4% (-2.2)
LIB 23.9% (-2.4)
GRN 9.6% (+2.2)

Prairies
CON 41.3% (-4.6)
NDP 33.5% (-5.7)
LIB 16.4% (+4.3)
GRN 6.2% (+3.5)

Alberta
CON 54.3% (-6.9)
NDP 19.5% (+0.9)
LIB 15.1% (+4.5)
GRN 5.6% (+0.3)

BC
NDP 37.6% (+4.4)
CON 28.6% (-6.7)
GRN 16.3% (+2.0)
LIB 14.6% (-1.7)


love is free
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Joined: May 21 2012

i like the look of that insanely high ndp lead in newfoundland, and where we seem to stand in the cities.  like honestly, it's impossible to deny the moral legitimacy of an opposition party that represents every city in the country (except for loser calgary).  obviously, we can't really game the scenarios until that fool trudeau is actually in place as leader, but i'm guessing the liberals around 18% will be where we land in 2015, with the bq and greens at 6% each, leaving 70% of the vote to be divided between the good guys and darth vader, and it's super encouraging to see that more and more, the maritimes are joining quebec to come off the map as real battlegrounds.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

its true, before spring election there was Quebec had NDP surge and its next Newfoundland would be NDP surge.

Quebec and Newfoundland are almost same, such politics, last year Quebec and NFLD lowest percent for Conservative

I'd say Newfoundland is new Quebec. hehe


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

knownothing wrote:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/06/majority-support-for-federal-nd...

 

I don't know where he gets it from but Grenier claims the federal NDP are at 59% in Newfoundland and Labrador.

It comes from an Environics poll last week. This poll shows the NDP at 59%, Libs 22%, and Cons 18%. It must be read with caution as the regional sample size is small. However, even with this in mind, it shows you how biased Grenier is, as he projects that this would lead to 4 NDP seats and 3 Liberal seats. Both Grenier and his projection model, which is Liberal and incumbent biased, are totally out to lunch. Such a margin would more than likely lead to an NDP sweep.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

It will be interesting in the next election when Eric tells everyone to vote NDP strategically because of incombency bias and because the NDP came in 2nd in most other races. I just wonder how he's going to be able to square that peg. He was part of the problem last time, saying people should vote lib strategically when it was steering voters wrong.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Jan, I have my issues with some of Eric Grenier's projections, but to be fair he has never "told everyone to vote Liberal strategically".


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

In defence of Mr Grenier, if you apply a straight swing based on the poll to the three strong Liberal Newfoundland seats they will all fall on the knife edge. Two barely NDP, one barely Liberal. His formula gives extra weight to incumbency so it is quite reasonable for him to project three Liberal wins. 

Keep in mind, however, that many NDP votes are concentrated in St John's North where Jack Harris got 70%. The poll projects that the NDP vote would increase from about 32% across the province to 59%. A uniform swing wd therefore give Jack 97%. Either he wd be more popular than Stalin or some of that increase would be reflected in extra gains in other ridings.

In any event all seven N&L seats are clearly within range for the NDP.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

No Stock, he hasn't told them to vote Liberal except that during the last election, for example, and in my area, because the libs had come 2nd last time, he was part of the strategic voting meme to vote liberal. It didn't matter that the libs had a unpopular candidate who wasn't even supported by their local riding association or that he hadn't bothered to check on local relavence.

We had a very popular local candidate, well respected and known in the riding, and right up until the last week, he still had the local lib candidate as the strategic best choice. The NDP ended up coming 2nd, behind the Con, and the lib far behind. Let's hope that next time, he doesn't say vote lib here.

I think how he decides who should be voted for, is the flaw.

 


Arthur Cramer
Online
Joined: Nov 30 2010

Grenier contributes nothing but mischief, and I wish he would go away.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Grenier's 308 is not a strategic voting site. He doesn't counsel people on how to vote. If you want to complain about bad strategic voting advice - you are barking up to wrong tree - its sites like leadnow and that "think twice coalition" nonsense that you should be talking about. All that Grenier does is take an average of polls and extrapolate the swing from them to all the ridings across the country. Its a very simple exercise that anyone who took math in high school can do.

I think you guys are giving him wayyyy more credit than he deserves. The only people who visit his site and pay any attention to his projections are people like us - hardcore partisan political junkies. I don't thik there is one single solitary person in Canada who changed how they were going to vote as a result of anything that Grenier has ever written.


UWSofty
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Joined: Dec 4 2002

jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

"Surging Tories" title for latest Forum poll once again gives most favourable interpretation of results when both NDP and Cons having been bouncing up and down around 35% in quite a few polls now. They really don't want to state the obvious -they have been in or near a statistical tie in most polls recently.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

interesting forum research in toronto

Toronto - Mayoral Election Voting Preference: Ford, Vaughan, or Chow


MP Olivia Chow 36%
Mayor Ford 34%
Councilor Adam Vaughan 21%
DK 9%

Youth (18-34) and 35 to 44 would vote for Olivia Chow and 45 to 65+ goes Ford


Toronto or East York
Chow 39%
Ford 28%
Vaughan 28%

North York
Chow 37%
Ford 37%
Vaughan 14%

Etobicoke or York
Ford 42%
Chow 31%
Vaughan 20%

Scarborough
Chow 36%
Ford 29%
Vaughan 21%

Current Provincial Party Preference
LIB - Chow 35%, Vaughan 30%, Ford 23%
NDP - Chow 60%, Vaughan 23%, Ford 14%
GRN - Chow 40%, Vaughan 22%, Ford 22%
CON - Ford 75%, Vaughan 10%, Chow 7%
OTH - Ford 43%, Chow 31%, Vaughan 14%


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

The question is silly, if Chow ran for mayor there is zero chance that Adam Vaughan would run as well. Either it would be a straight two way fight of Chow vs. Ford or some right of centre socially acceptable Tory like Stintz would also run.


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