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Electoral Maps 5

Wilf Day
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Continued from Part 4.


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Wilf Day
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The new Quebec provincial map for the coming election has one important difference from the federal maps: under Quebec law they use the number of voters rather than the population. This somewhat delays the loss of representation for greying areas with fewer children. It also differs from the federal count by not counting non-citizens.

http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/english/provincial/electoral-map/maps-of-electoral-divisions-by-administrative-region-2011.php

http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/DGE-6258-VA.pdf

It has the same 25% deviation rule, with similar principles for exceptions. They also have a statutory exemption for the Îles-de-la-Madeleine.

The new map adds three electoral divisions, one in each of the regions encircling the Island of Montreal, i.e. Laurentides-Lanaudière, Laval and Montérégie. It removes three in Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine regions.

The exceptions are not surprising: Ungava, Abitibi-Est, Abitibi-Ouest, René-Lévesque (in Côte-Nord), and Gaspé. Oddly, Rousseau is 26.8% over, while the other half of Montcalm RCM, Masson, is only +1.3% over.  But they didn't try hard, if at all, to stay within 10%. Of the other 119 ridings, 60 have deviations from quotient between 10% and 25%.

 

 


theleftyinvestor
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Interesting about the difference. Of course this should probably go in a thread in the Quebec forum rather than Canadian politics since it's not either at a federal level or regarding an interprovincial matter :)


nicky
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Wilf, The recent Saskatchewan provincial redistribution was carried out on the basis of residents over the age of 18. The Quebec redistribution has now taken this a step further by counting only voters. I am unaware of any other jurisdiction which does not redistribute on the basis of population as a whole. Do you?

The concerns are obvious. Area with large youth or immigration populations  stand to loose seats. Areas with older populations will gain. Given that the first two demographics tend to favour Liberals and  NDP, and the latter the Conservatives the map may be significantly skewered.

Are you able to calculate what effect this formula may have on the Quebec or Saskatchewan maps?

I have tried to get an idea of the effect on the island of Montreal, where immigants to Quebec tend to consentrate. but my calculations are admitedly crude. Under the new federal redistribution, based on overall population, the island on Montreal gets 19 of 78 Quebec seats or 24.4%. Under the new provincial reditribution it gets 28 out of 125 seats or 22.4%. If it had the same ratio as the federal map It would recive 30.4 seats. On these numbers Montreal's weight would be reduced by almost 10%. And within Montreal heavily immigrant ares would be reduced even more.

Do you know who brought in these changes and when? If it were the provincial Liberals, who tend to dominate the Allophone vote, I suspect they are to their considerable electoral disadvantage in Montreal.

 


Stockholm
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The new proposed Sasaktchewan map has just been posted and it looks like it could not have been better for the NDP if they had designed it themselves! Let's hope it stays this way.


David Young
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Stockholm wrote:

The new proposed Sasaktchewan map has just been posted and it looks like it could not have been better for the NDP if they had designed it themselves! Let's hope it stays this way.

Do you have the link so we can see for ourselves?

 


Stockholm
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David Young
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Thanks for the link, Stockholm!

This is a complete turnaround from the last redistribution.

I can see the NDP in strong contention for all 6 urban seats, especially if Goodale finally leaves politics to collect his generous pension.

Let's also hope that Lawrence Joseph will consider running again in D.M.C.R., after coming very close last time.

 


Stockholm
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I agree, though Regina-Qu'appelle is a challenge since it is unchanged from before and the speaker Andrew Scheer would run there again.


nicky
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Here is an analysis of the new Sask map with some handy maps:

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/

Although we do not yet have an actual transposition of votes, it would seem that the NDP would have won Regina Lewvan and Saskatoon Centre - University on its 2011 vote. The Con margin in Desnethe wd have been cut from about 800 to 200.

Saskatoon West would have been a relatively close loss and Sakatoon Grasswwod would be promising.

Wascana sheds most of its rural hinterland which both strengthens Ralph Goodale's hold and enhances NDP prospects if Goodale retires.

Qu'Appelle remains lagely unchanged. Unfortunately a large block of NDP polls in central Regina will continue to be overwhelmed by distant Conservative rural votes.

Palliser largely becomes the new Moose Jaw - Lake Centre. Without its Regina component a close NDP loss in 2011 would convert into a Conservative stranglehold.

 


Stockholm
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I think most of the voters in Palliser are now in Regina-Lewvan...the Consevative parts go into the new Tory sink hole of Moose Jaw-Lake Centee...

DaveW
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I am very interested in the evolution of the future (perhaps) Wilder-Penfield riding in Montreal, if anyone wants to add to the following comments fromthe thread #4, with gray-shaded analysis by Stockholm, commented on further below by poster Love is free:

love is free Joined: May 21 2012 Send PM July 28, 2012 - 3:19pm (new) #100 Stockholm wrote:

Actually Brian Topp would be a very good fit for Wilder Penfield. Both his wife and his mother in law have run as NDP candidates in Westmount in the past...the only problem is that he doesn't have much profile in English Montreal right now not having lived there since the early 90s. Still it would be as good a place as any to make a stab. I suppose he might also want to run in a seat on the south shore where he grew up...

i think even mulcair himself would be defeated in the wilder penfield riding.  it's just not ndp-friendly the way either ndg or westmount-ville marie are individually.  and topp, he has absolutely no profile in montreal, apart from his run at the ndp leadership.  like he just doesn't live or work or even really visit the city in interesting ways, he's never been in the news (aside from the leadership run) and he's definitely not seen as being a montrealer (despite the fact that he grew up near to montreal and went to mcgill for undergrad).  i'm thinking this guy needs a safe ndp seat, or at least an ahuntsic (bq-held) or papineau (plc-held, but trudeau fils), where it's mostly immigrants.


knownothing
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Stockholm wrote:
I think most of the voters in Palliser are now in Regina-Lewvan...the Consevative parts go into the new Tory sink hole of Moose Jaw-Lake Centee...

 

Thanks a lot thats where i live. And Regina-Lewvan only got half of Palliser's voters. The other half are in Moose Jaw.


DaveW
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re Wilder Penfield

although I would add that notoriety can be overrated: see the McGill Four of 2011 renown;

Topp has a name as a national backroom NDP notable and leadership guy; he gets in  the national media, although I would emphasize, not specifically identified as a Quebecer

Does that really matter?


Wilf Day
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nicky wrote:

Here is an analysis of the new Sask map with some handy maps:

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/

Although we do not yet have an actual transposition of votes, it would seem that the NDP would have won Regina Lewvan and Saskatoon Centre - University on its 2011 vote. The Con margin in Desnethe wd have been cut from about 800 to 200.

Saskatoon West would have been a relatively close loss and Sakatoon Grasswood would be promising.

Indeed. Although that blogger calls Saskatoon--Grasswood "rurban," it is entirely within the Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area, composed of part of the City and part of the Municipality of Corman Park which surrounds the City.

If all of the suburbs had been put into a fourth riding, we would have had a "Saskatoon-Doughnut." Instead, most of them are within the new  Kindersley—Rosetown—Humboldt including the rest of Corman Park, Martensvile, Warman, Dalmeny, Langham and Osler, Vanscoy, Delisle and Asquith. A little of the Saskatoon CMA is in Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan.


nicky
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Dave W enquires about the prospects in Wilder - Penfield. I posted this on July 19:

 

I fear that L is F is more accurate abt the new Wilder - Penfield riding than is Stockholm. 

Westmount - Ville Marie was one of the NDP's closest losses in the last election. This map reveals that it carried almost all of the riding outside the town of Westmount which went heavily Liberal:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/24075.html

The new riding excises everything east of Atwater and adds the NDG section of NDG-Lachine:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/map/pwt/pwt.html?lang=e&province=QC

and finally, this map shows that the additions are also mostly Liberal:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/24045.html

The new riding would have voted Liberal by a fairly wide margin in 2011. Perhaps Mulcair's home town appeal might compensate but it will be an uphill climb.

 

The new riding seems to combine the most Liberal sections of NDG and Westmount and removes large areas that voted NDP in either Westmount - Ville Marie or NDG - Lachine. It is a much wealthier and more Anglophone riding than Westmount -Ville Marie.

I stress I have not actually transposed the votes but comparing the colour patterns on the maps is not encouraging.


DaveW
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thanks, I voted in 2004 at the old University Settlement house on St Urbain, and that was quite a different demographic than west of Guy Street, for sure ....


Wilf Day
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knownothing wrote:
Stockholm wrote:
I think most of the voters in Palliser are now in Regina-Lewvan...the Consevative parts go into the new Tory sink hole of Moose Jaw-Lake Centee...
Thanks a lot thats where i live. And Regina-Lewvan only got half of Palliser's voters. The other half are in Moose Jaw.

Here's the problem: the present Cypress Hills--Grasslands has fewer people than any other riding in Saskatchewan, with only 0.826 quotients, 17.4% below. It must grow north or east.

If Cypress Hills – Grasslands is Cypress RHA plus the Sun West School Division, that's 75,577 people, 0.99 quotient. That’s 75% of Heartland RHA, including Kindersley, Rosetown and Biggar.

Then you could have a Five Hills—Last Mountain riding centred on Moose Jaw that takes in Assiniboia and Gravelbourg, plus the area up to Strasbourg and Raymore (14,000) and the area down around to Radville (5,000), 0.96 quotients. Then Souris - Moose Mountain needs only minor adjustments.

But if you keep the Commission's interesting Kindersley—Rosetown—Humboldt, then Cypress Hills – Grasslands has to grow east, and you end up with Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan which includes 34,421 people in Moose Jaw (including the 1,147 in Moose Jaw RM), maybe 6,600 people in Regina suburbs, 6,500 people in Saskatoon suburbs, and another 23,485 in rural areas in between with no population centres except Watrous, Lanigan and Outlook. A bit of a dog's breakfast. But what's your alternative?

 


theleftyinvestor
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Interesting regarding Saskatchewan. I wonder what the Wheat Board Effect will do to push beyond those 2011 numbers.

So, how about Nettie Wiebe for Saskatoon Centre-University? I've heard her in the media and I've been impressed. After three solid runs at it, I think she deserves to be the Linda Duncan of Saskatchewan :)


knownothing
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Wilf Day wrote:

knownothing wrote:
Stockholm wrote:
I think most of the voters in Palliser are now in Regina-Lewvan...the Consevative parts go into the new Tory sink hole of Moose Jaw-Lake Centee...
Thanks a lot thats where i live. And Regina-Lewvan only got half of Palliser's voters. The other half are in Moose Jaw.

Here's the problem: the present Cypress Hills--Grasslands has fewer people than any other riding in Saskatchewan, with only 0.826 quotients, 17.4% below. It must grow north or east.

If Cypress Hills – Grasslands is Cypress RHA plus the Sun West School Division, that's 75,577 people, 0.99 quotient. That’s 75% of Heartland RHA, including Kindersley, Rosetown and Biggar.

Then you could have a Five Hills—Last Mountain riding centred on Moose Jaw that takes in Assiniboia and Gravelbourg, plus the area up to Strasbourg and Raymore (14,000) and the area down around to Radville (5,000), 0.96 quotients. Then Souris - Moose Mountain needs only minor adjustments.

But if you keep the Commission's interesting Kindersley—Rosetown—Humboldt, then Cypress Hills – Grasslands has to grow east, and you end up with Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan which includes 34,421 people in Moose Jaw (including the 1,147 in Moose Jaw RM), maybe 6,600 people in Regina suburbs, 6,500 people in Saskatoon suburbs, and another 23,485 in rural areas in between with no population centres except Watrous, Lanigan and Outlook. A bit of a dog's breakfast. But what's your alternative?

 

 

I agree that this new cut-up is way better overall for the NDP.


David Young
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I've seen a news story that some Conservative M.P.s from Saskatchewan don't like the new boundaries.

That's good enough for me to know that the Commission has done it's job!

 


nicky
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The new Manitoba and Prince Edward Island maps have been released.

No changes at all for PEI where all four ridings were already close to the quota.

Only modest changes for Manitoba with several ridings not changed at all and the rest minimally.

Arthur Cramer will be pleased to learn that Kevin Lameroux would have been narrowly defeated on the new boundaries.

Only Ontario remains outstanding.


Stockholm
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The new map in MB is good news, Winnipeg North loses a chunk of Lamoureux's strongest area in the suburban northwest to Kildonan-St. Paul, while the riding gains a chunk of very NDP friendly quasi-inner city territory from Kildonan-St. Paul...I think the seat becomes pretty comfortably NDP if this change goes through...Lamoureux would have to think hard about whether to run in Wpg North next time or run in Kildonan-St. Paul.


knownothing
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David Young wrote:

I've seen a news story that some Conservative M.P.s from Saskatchewan don't like the new boundaries.

That's good enough for me to know that the Commission has done it's job!

 

 

They had a clip of Kelly Block on the radio and she was saying, "These new boundaries just don't make sense. Having purely urban boundaries will make it hard to stay in contact with the rural populations..." or something like that

 

She sounded completely incoherent!


Wilf Day
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knownothing wrote:
Stockholm wrote:
I think most of the voters in Palliser are now in Regina-Lewvan...the Consevative parts go into the new Tory sink hole of Moose Jaw-Lake Centee...
Thanks a lot thats where i live. And Regina-Lewvan only got half of Palliser's voters. The other half are in Moose Jaw.

Here’s the ideal urban solution for Regina and Moose Jaw:

REGINA SOUTHWEST--MOOSE JAW is Regina Southwest about 40,000, Moose Jaw CA 34,421, Pense/Grand Coulee etc. about 2,000, total about 76,421

That leaves 153,100 for two Regina City ridings, each about 76,550.

Total about 229,521. The Commission proposed three ridings totalling 229,686.

The Commission’s SOURIS--MOOSE MOUNTAIN and CYPRESS HILLS--GRASSLANDS are unchanged.

The parts of their proposed Regina—Qu’Appelle and Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan outside Regina City and Moose Jaw will form a riding with about 71,171 residents (3.6% under quotient). Call it LAKE CENTRE--QU'APPELLE.


edmundoconnor
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theleftyinvestor wrote:

So, how about Nettie Wiebe for Saskatoon Centre-University? I've heard her in the media and I've been impressed. After three solid runs at it, I think she deserves to be the Linda Duncan of Saskatchewan :)

I worked on her last campaign, and met her again in Vancouver (and again again at the leadership convention). She is absolutely fantastic: articulate and very, very intelligent. I know I'm gushing, but she's dynamite. Block was and is a dunce compared to her.

I think (hope?) Nettie considers giving it another kick at the can in 2015 in Saskatoon Centre-University, especially since the stars would finally be aligning for her. She's a professor at one of the affiliated colleges of the U of S, which will only add to the left-leaning tendencies in the area. That, plus the not-too distant memory of her loss to Trost. Her contesting against Trost (and winning) would be very sweet. However, I suspect Trost will deny the NDP the pleasure and either skedaddle to Saskatoon-Grasswood, or out of town entirely to K-R-H (where he would have to fight it out with Vellacott, and possibly Block. Wouldn't I like to be a fly on the wall for *that* nomination meeting).


edmundoconnor
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knownothing wrote:

They had a clip of Kelly Block on the radio and she was saying, "These new boundaries just don't make sense. Having purely urban boundaries will make it hard to stay in contact with the rural populations..." or something like that

She sounded completely incoherent!

So would you, if you saw your meal ticket disappearing over the horizon. Although Block is barely coherent at the best of times. Cicero she isn't.


edmundoconnor
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David Young wrote:

I've seen a news story that some Conservative M.P.s from Saskatchewan don't like the new boundaries.

That's good enough for me to know that the Commission has done it's job!

I am going to be fascinated – truly fascinated – to see exactly how many Tory MPs choose to either duke it out in an urban seat, or tussle for a nomination for a safer seat where other Tory MPs have the exact same idea as them.


Albireo
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Being unfamiliar with this process, I am wondering: how final are the proposed new boundaries at this stage? Is there a process of review and revision? Are we likely to see any major changes, or minor tweaks? Is there any opportunity for Conservatives (or anyone else) to tilt the process in their favour, after this point in the process?


Brachina
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I believe there is a review before it gets approved and it can be changed, but if the Tories manage to kill the Urban seats all hell will break loose, everyone with a brain in thier head knows Sask needs proper Urban seats.

David Young
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Pardon me, Brachina, but did you just use the words 'a brain in their heads' and 'Tories' in the same sentence?

Sort of belongs with 'Military Intelligence' and 'jumbo shrimp' in the oxymoron category, don't you think?

 


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