Liberals 45%
Progressive Conservatives 31%
NDP 12%
Green 11%
would vote for the Liberals under McGuinty if a provincial election were held tomorrow; 31 per cent would vote for the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak; 12 per cent would vote for the NDP under Andrea Horwath and 11 per cent would vote for the Ontario Green Party under Frank de Jong.
Sounds just like numbers Peterson had when he called an election in 1990. The main thing is that approval of McGuinty is dropping - and as the new NDP and Tory leader start to be known, its just a matter of time before McGuinty starts to drop like a stone.
Ontarians and their media pay almost no attention to provincial politics until election time. With the election not until 2011 it is hard to give much credence to high numbers.
I can never figure out these numbers, because most people I talk to are not happy with the Liberals - of course I live in rural Ontario so maybe that explains it.
It's the middle of summer. Nobody cares. Municipal and federal politics have been more interesting of late so if people ARE paying attention to politics, I'd imagine it's more to that.
I'm not disputing the accuracy of the numbers. I'm jsut saying to take them with a grain of salt. Hudak and Horwatch are both new leaders who are realtively unknown. They'll need time to build up their profiles.
Considering Ontario is going through an economic poo-poo storm the likes of which we have not seen since the Dirty Thirties, the fact that McGuinty is still polling in solid majority government territory is astounding.
Horwath will do better as people forget about Premier Bob Rae.
Hudak will do better as people forget about Premier Mike Harris.
And so it goes.
And the Conservatives are trying to tell us the economy has recovered and there isn't going to be a fall election. How do you know you are coming out of a receission? By how many new immigrants you bring into the country and sell houses to at low interest rates while homeowners lose out on hundreds of thousands? No homeowners are still losing out and new residents it just tells you Canada is still better off than say places like Mexico, India, etc. Is it the increase in sales to consumer goods from new residents? No that isn't it either.
And its the clincher, JOBS and if you want to check it out I do believe unemployment is at 9% as Harper forces cash strapped provinces to stick it to its residents with an added tax to services and goods as desperate for cash. This added 8% tax is only going to hurt as added to consumers goods and services that were only charged PST but will now have 8% added to purchases that formely were not charged the GST.
Go Liberals Go because one thing for sure JOBS are hard to come by and with all the new immigrants and a couple hundred thousand temporary cheap labors ready to jump at a job forget it especially in this receission because there are NO NEW JOBS.
Just wait until you see the numbers for unemployment for July as it is only going to get worse as new residents are added to the unemployment pile and people are working for next to nothing to try to survive.
http://blog.taragana.com/n/canada-sheds-7400-jobs-in-june-pushing-unempl...
I'm shocked at how high the Greens are polling considering they are going through a leadership race and haven't really gotten any good PR since the election.
It's a good place to put your vote if you don't like the other three, since most people don't know what they stand for other than that they like trees.
I wonder, then, how much of that 11% is solid. People scoffed at polls in the last election that said the Greens would finish around 10%, and then ended up with a very respectable 8%.
I'm shocked at how high the Greens are polling considering they are going through a leadership race and haven't really gotten any good PR since the election.
If anyone of that 11% actually knew the name of the current Ontario Green leader or had been exposed to any publicity about them in the last few months - they would be polling at 5% not 11%.
I recall listening to the media suggesting to an NDP candidate that the Green Candidate was polling higher. This was the day before the election. The Green Candidate did finished at 7%, under the national average, and the NDP candidate did ok around 13%. But that is not close by any means.
However, the NDP is asleep in to many ridings. Not active in the community, and many of the riding associations are filled with dead wood, not activists. Thus what we see is a contest between Green Paper Candidates and some weak NDP ridings and its a crap shoot where the votes land. Regardless, the Green Party have the ability to mobilize in a few ridings and in some other non contestable ridings their riding associations are more active then the NDPs.
NDP activists focus on protests or some Union structure/org, whereas Greens focus on Nimby's to network and build a base. The NDP also does this, but in ridings where the base is weak, someone needs to take the lead.
This is one of the reasons why the polls appear so close btw the Green and the NDP.
The NDP have an opportunity to cut a new direction with the new leader. They really need to become likeable. Not everything has to be negative. Sure the NDP handles difficult, very difficult issues, and those NDP Mpps are some of the best. But being liked, also helps get elected. Being active doesn't hurt either, especially if doing good positive things.
The PCs have a new leader, and he is a throwback to an era few want to return. The Lunch Bucket Conservative isn't working today, and they have discovered all the evil doings of the Harris Government. No longer are they supportive of punishing the poor, when they realize that more friends and family members have been affected by this recession. Some having lost homes and now living on Ontario Works until employment picks up. Not a good thing....
If anything, the NDP is the party that should be enjoying a honeymoon with the public.
However, the McGuinty Liberals are having the free ride, and it seems they seem confident enough to sell this HST openly unlike the BC Liberals who did the dirty.
"Still, 49 per cent said it's time for another party to take over and seven per cent didn't know or refused to respond"
Great post madmax. Coming from the GTA suburbs (mississauga to be exact) the NDP is pretty much dead in the water, and since it isn't doesn't have a union base, both the federal and provincial NDP have never shown any real interest in organizing in the city. Last federal election I ended up voting for the Green Party candidate in my home riding of Mississauga South, because the NDP ran a smarmy university student who performed terribly in the debates and I wasn't about to tactically vote for the socially conservative Liberal MP Paul Szabo even if the riding was a top Tory target.
Ontario has a government? Where they been all summer?
Haha, I bet Steve Peters is doing a very thorough and slow polish of his Speakers Chair. Meanwhile, in in Elgin-Middlesex-London the tumbleweeds would be blowing if it hadn't rained so much.
The Ont Libs have been doing a putrid job of showing their red faces in blue ridings in my part of the rural south. Meanwhile, the PCers are actually making some decent points from time to time. I'd mention the activities of the ONDP if it actually did anything of note 'round here.
