Another issue I would stress in St. Paul is the fact that McGuinty has never reversed all the most evil things that Harris did to screw school boards and municipalities. I would point out that social welfare is an expense that needs to be uploaded to the provincial government and that the funding formula for education badly needs to be fixed as well.
Good point.
Electoral reform may not be easy to focus on during the campaign, but there are angles.
Many downtown Toronto ridings did vote for MMP in the referendum: Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Toronto-Danforth and Beaches - East York. Adding in Toronto Centre and St. Paul's, the voters in the seven downtown Toronto ridings voted for MMP by 52.7% (144,913 MMP, 130,193 FPTP.)
Unfortunately, St. Paul's voted 55% for FPTP.
However, its federal MP, Carolyn Bennett, is still a good electoral reformer, and Michael Bryant had endorsed MMP in the referendum. So it would be fair to ask the Liberal candidate, when she or he is chosen, "do you agree with your former Minister Marie Bountrogianni that electoral reform in Ontario is unfinished business? Do you support electoral reform, as Carolyn Bennett does, Michael Bryant did, and the majority of downtown Toronto voters did? What will you do about it?"
But a lot more people voted for MMP in St. Paul's than they did for the NDP, so I don't see this as a "losing" issue.
(BTW Another St. Paul's Liberal, Josh Matlow, supported MMP as well.)
In addition to fixing the funding formula for cities, another issue, one which Stuart Parker is heavily involved in, is granting more autonomy to the City of Toronto. Not sure where the ONDP stands on this, but it is a good issue to take on in the byelection.
Maybe the NDP in St Paul's should focus on winning as an election strategy.
On thing that babblers should know, just so that they are not caught unawares, is that Stuart Parker's break with the Green Party in BC was said to be very acrimonious. I did not follow it at the time, but I have heard people within the Green Party call the removal/defeat of the Stuart Parker faction of the Greens, a coup.
I think the HST, unfortunately, is the big bread and butter issue of the campaign- at least for the higher income neighbourhoods. The question that needs to be asked is, why is the provincial government raising taxes on average consumers in the middle of a recession? There is no comfortable answer to that question. It will also be easy to educate people in the riding about the issue as they will probably be affected by the tax increase in everything from increased restaurants, to higher costs at the local businesses that give character to their community. Small business in BC is going ballistic exactly because this is the toughest time for them. Unlike big business that may have enough assets to draw good credit lines and survive the recession, many small business go under. Small businesses are also generally employ more people/revenue than big business, so when small businesses fail the effect of the loss on employment can be very direct.
With the downloading of costs, I hope the NDP has the economic angle clear as well. If the provincial government doesn't upload those costs, then given the massive deficits at City Hall and elsewhere, the pressure is going to be on for some substantial property tax (and maybe other) increases after the election. Most people in St. Paul's are renters, which could put pressure on their rents to go up. The best bet for St. Paul might be to have those costs uploaded and the burden spread across the province, where it can be addressed through a wider gamut of policy options (cutting government spending, raising sales taxes, raising income taxes, economic growth in all regions of the province, etc). There may also be some cost efficiencies that could be achieved if certain social programs were administered at the provincial level.
Thirty-five percent of St. Paul's is immigrant (41% first generation Canadian) and while we are in a recession there is the bitter irony that the Canadian economy is facing a skills shortage in many areas. With most of the jurisdiction for recognition or certification of foreign credentials at the provincial level, the McGuinty government continues to screw over a lot of skilled newcomers at perhaps the worst time for the economy and the newcomers themselves. I'd like to see the McGuinty government actually do something about improving recognition of foreign credentials especially now that they have a "labour mobility" agreement with all the provinces which allows for the Canada-wide recognition of Ontario obtained credentials. As they say, if its good enough for the goose, it's good enough for the gander. And if the McGuinty government gives some toe-dragging response then I say screw them, because as one of, if not, the biggest employers in Ontario is the Ontario provincial government- and they could easily bridge in newcomers to their workforce with valuable foreign credentials just through a simple change to their HR policy. Even if they did that and didn't change any laws or regulations, hundreds of Ontarian newcomers would be able to gain the necessary Canadian job experience and security that they would need to continue in their chosen profession. Instead, the Ontario government prefers to let families suffer for a generation and then employ their Canadian born children. In another time and place, that might've been considered discrimination
30.5% of St Paul's also speaks a non-official language. Are these languages going to be encouraged for the cultural and economic value they represent or is the Ontario government going to continue its short-sighted policies on second (and third) language education in our schools? Why aren't we making sure that value is enhanced and secured through community (and thus government) support? Does Ontario want to continue to be a have not province or does it value having a workforce that can participate in the global economy in the near future?
One of the lousiest things about the Ontario provincial governments HST (and possible municipal property) tax increases is that they will hurt those on fixed incomes the most- a.k.a. the retired. With pensions in the gutter and the highest national levels ever of people on EI and social assistance, the HST increase is a giant screw you to these individuals. We also shouldn't forget, that the last round of "tax cuts" that McGuinty brought in actually shifted taxes off of big business and on to the general tax payer (increases in income taxes, most of which were put on the middle class which will get an insulting one year partial "rebate" on part of the raise...I mean they really think that insulting the voter's intelligence is just fine).
Finally, in 2001, 14% of St Paul's was Jewish. While they may not be hard core Israel enthusiasts, the nominee should be ready if they need to answer a question or two about Sid Ryan. For example, do you believe that there should be a province-wide educational boycott on Israeli scholars and researchers? Unless you believe in burning books, please say no. Depending on how things go there may be other questions along these lines. Be sure to get your answers well set up in your mind in terms of what is provincial vs. federal jurisdiction- both de jure and in terms of your own personal philosophy (e.g. what level of government should take the leadership on different initiatives).
ETA: If the NDP can get all 11,189 people that voted for Paul Summerville to come out and vote NDP again, then they will be just 1-2 percentage points behind the Liberals on election night.
J Vara: "The question that needs to be asked is, why is the provincial government raising taxes on average consumers in the middle of a recession?"
Answer: J Vara: "And if the McGuinty government gives some toe-dragging response then I say screw them, because as one of, if not, the biggest employers in Ontario is the Ontario provincial government."
The gov needs money to pay for its own pork. EHealth type costs are not uncommon. I had an acquaintence who did some contract work for EHealth and other gov related projects. He said those pay scales are standard procedure when doing contract work for the gov. Multiply EHealth times however many computer\IT related projects are ongoing and you have an engrained problem.
The McLlibs figure double-speaking around the HST will gradually defeat all opposition: It'll save you money, and here's a tax credit, too! Enjoy paying more for everything and don't get too close to the premier, please. He needs his personal space.
V Jara, thanks for all the St. Paul's stats. I'm digesting them now.
What about the issue of daycare? With the Pascal report coming out, it is important for the NDP to come out with some sort of position. Yet there is very little about it on the ONDP website.
[Double post]
Looking at poll-by-poll results, there is quite a lot of NDP support west of Bathurst. One area where I think the NDP could improve however is the Oakwood-Vaughan area, which the Libs win, the NDP is a distant second, and turnout is quite low.
NDP support seems rather "soft" in St. Pauls which isn't surprising given that they have not really been a contender in the riding. For instance, looking at the last two federal elections, in the poll I grew up in, the NDP received about a third of the vote in '06 (and about the same in '07 provincial), and then dropped by half, to the benefit of the Liberals and Greens.
Farmpunk, you're right. The McGuinty government needs to increase revenue somehow because a) they were in deficit before this recession b) they have a lot of pork and big business tax cuts to pay for.
The questions of why now (during a recession)? and why at the expense of the average Ontarian (middle class income tax increases and the HST)? are perfectly valid ones and show how McGuinty has given up on the traditional Liberal line of being the party of the middle class in order to kiss the hem of subsidy-doling and tax-cutting-for-the-richest-first ideology of Harper and Flaherty in Ottawa.
McGuinty has largely gotten away with it, because there is no left-of-centre party competent enough in Ontario to call him out on it.
Stuart, you can read over the demographic info yourself here. As for any of the ideas I've expressed, they are neither new nor revolutionary, so feel encouraged to borrow freely.
Looking at poll-by-poll results, there is quite a lot of NDP support west of Bathurst. One area where I think the NDP could improve however is the Oakwood-Vaughan area, which the Libs win, the NDP is a distant second, and turnout is quite low.
I suspect that Oakwood-Vaughan's weakness might also be a little grandfathered in from its previously being part of Eglinton-Lawrence--an even more abject NDP wasteland than St Paul's. (Yet municipally, it's represented by Howard Moscoe. Go figure.)
If I'm not mistaken "Oakwood / Vaughn" is part of Davenport riding. However, the apartments on Vaughn south-east of Winona are in St. Pauls.
I think the HST, unfortunately, is the big bread and butter issue of the campaign- at least for the higher income neighbourhoods. The question that needs to be asked is, why is the provincial government raising taxes on average consumers in the middle of a recession? There is no comfortable answer to that question. It will also be easy to educate people in the riding about the issue as they will probably be affected by the tax increase in everything from increased restaurants, to higher costs at the local businesses that give character to their community. Small business in BC is going ballistic exactly because this is the toughest time for them. Unlike big business that may have enough assets to draw good credit lines and survive the recession, many small business go under. Small businesses are also generally employ more people/revenue than big business, so when small businesses fail the effect of the loss on employment can be very direct.
A few months ago a local prominent Liberal lawyer wrote an open letter to our Liberal MPP against the HST. It's still in the Google cache:
The following is a copy of a letter sent to Lou Rinaldi, MPP for Northumberland Quinte West.While I realize that you have many issues to deal with in these difficult times, I wish to point out that harmonizing the GST and PST in Ontario will probably mean an 8% increase in legal bills for all our family law clients.
Our firm has tried to keep costs competitive. We have not raised rates for many years and in fact we have kept the price for a simple divorce frozen for at least 10 years.
But, now we are dealing with a significant number of family clients who
* are facing heightened family tension because of economic pressure leading potentially to more family fractures; or
* need to get ongoing support amounts suddenly adjusted by the court because of fluctuating employment incomes; and/or
* are even more limited than usual in having money for legal bills because their home equity and borrowing power has been hit hard by reduced real estate activity and bank credit limitations.
Needless to say, under these pressures, an 8% increase in the cost of dealing with the courts will create some hardship.
I reiterate that we understand the fiscal pressure in Ontario will necessitate making tough decisions, but please consider adding the above points to the mix so that families under litigation stress are a factor in the calculation.
Martin Partridge
St. Paul's has a lot of lawyers. The HST may be more unpopular than some expect.
St. Paul's has a lot of lawyers. The HST may be more unpopular than some expect.
But aren't the Tories opposed to the HST as well?
If I'm not mistaken "Oakwood / Vaughn" is part of Davenport riding. However, the apartments on Vaughn south-east of Winona are in St. Pauls.
Prior to the last redistribution, the stuff going SE from Dufferin and Eglinton down to around Oakwood & Vaughan or so belonged to Eglinton-Lawrence. It's south of that that belonged (and in large part still belongs to) Davenport...)
Just an update: Dennis Young from provincial office contacted me yesterday to get bio information from me for a news release announcing a contested nomination. The news release is supposed to come out this morning (I guess the party has about an hour left) and also announce the date of the nomination meeting and the names of at least one other candidate than me.
Interesting. Wonder who it is?
Oh don't be coy - we all know it's you
St. Paul's New Democrats to nominate candidate Sept. 9
Two declared candidates already in the race TORONTO, Aug. 11 /CNW/ - New Democrats will select their candidate for the upcoming by-election in the Toronto riding of St. Paul's at a nomination meeting on September 9th, the party's provincial secretary announced this morning. "This by-election is an opportunity to send a message to the McGuinty Liberals and send a strong representative to Queens Park," said Dennis Young. "Two respected individuals have already come forward to seek the NDP nomination and we look forward to a lively nomination process." The nomination meeting will be held on September 9th at 7:00 p.m. at St. Matthew's Bracondale House, 707 St. Clair Ave. West. The meeting date will be moved up if the by-election is called before then. Individuals interested in seeking the candidacy must declare by September 2nd. The two declared candidates are: Julian Heller - A local public education activist and ratepayer association leader, Heller has lived in the riding since 1983. He is a trial lawyer and ran as the NDP candidate in St. Paul's in both the 2003 and 2007 provincial general elections. Heller has built a reputation as an outspoken advocate for individuals, businesses and not-for-profit organizations. Stuart Parker - A leading voice on environmental, poverty and voting reform issues for more than twenty years, Parker is a former director of Fair Vote Canada and Fair Vote Ontario. He is also a former leader of British Columbia's Green Party. Parker is currently a PhD candidate at the University of Toronto and has lived in St. Paul's since 2004. St. Paul's has been vacant since former cabinet minister Michael Bryant resigned in early June. The Premier must call the by-election by December 7th.
Congrats Stuart!!! Go Stuart GO!!!
This may be an issue in the by=election:
McGuinty had hand in hiring former eHealth CEO
Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty addresses the media at Queen's Park in Toronto as Alan Hudson resigned as chairman of eHealth Ontario amid controversy. Kevin Van Paassen/The Globe and Mail
Ontario Premier directly intervened in hiring of former exec Sarah Kramer, as requested by chairman Alan Hud
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mcguinty-had-hand-in-hiring...
But your emphasis now has to be the nomination contest and it should be a good one, as ACTING secretary Young says. I assume the deadlinr has passed for new member to be eligible to vote, you have a list of potentially eligible members ( status 1"s, 2's and 3's?) , and will work those members hard and smar and cool.t. Assume nothing personal in running agaisnt Julian Heller, i'tz just the time and place for you. The Red Green card is heavily in play and you need to make ti an advantage rather than a disadvantage. -"time to reciaim the envrionemnt vote from the Greens that is rightfully ours?. Hows' your endorsement list- ties with steel, community, environmental, And you sure as hell better be running to win. 
GO STUART GO!!!"
The Tories might have an interesting candidate:
http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/679840
"Sources told the Star the Tories are actively wooing veteran Toronto Sun city hall columnist Sue-Ann Levy to carry the blue banner in the high-profile riding.
The Tories see Levy, a staunch fiscal conservative and fierce critic of Mayor David Miller's stewardship, as "a dream candidate."
Jewish and gay - she came out on the Sun's front page to mark Pride Week in 2007 - Levy lives in the riding, which boasts a thriving Jewish community, with her new wife, Denise Alexander. She has an MBA from the University of Toronto."
So if Moses wins the Liberal nomination, Parker wins the NDP nomination, and Levy wins the Tory nomination, we could see a by-election fight between an aboriginal woman, a black man, and a gay Jew. Yay diversity lol.
Oh don't be coy - we all know it's you
Ha! I don't live in St. Paul's. But if I did, I'd probably join the party to vote for Stuart. He's a pretty stand-up guy. I worked with him during the MMP referendum, and he's an excellent worker, and really, really dedicated and progressive.
So if Moses wins the Liberal nomination, Parker wins the NDP nomination, and Levy wins the Tory nomination, we could see a by-election fight between an aboriginal woman, a black man, and a gay Jew. Yay diversity lol.
Huh? Who's the black man in that equation?
Note to Stuart - Change the damn picture!
I am sure that is a fine rear end you have- although the pants are a bit baggy to tell- but you need a picture that shows you as a nice, caring person. Not your backend. With things heating up members and the public will be starting to google you.
Stuart Parker, I believe. And isn't POC more appropriate?
So if Moses wins the Liberal nomination, Parker wins the NDP nomination, and Levy wins the Tory nomination, we could see a by-election fight between an aboriginal woman, a black man, and a gay Jew. Yay diversity lol.
Huh? Who's the black man in that equation?
Stuart Parker, son of Valerie Jerome, nephew of the late Harry Jerome.
Thanks, bekayne and Polunatic2. Looks like I made a bit of a blooper. My apologies, Stuart. :)
Looks good and very professional.
St. Paul's has a lot of lawyers. The HST may be more unpopular than some expect.
Yup, and if these Bay St. lawyers switch it will be to the Tories not the NDP. I don't think the NDP is strong enough in St. Pauls however. Sue Ann Levy could run a strong campaign for the Tories.
You know it wouldn't be all bad if Sue-Anne Levy were elected in the byelection as a Tory. First of all it would get rid of the the most vicious union-bashing, Miller-hating columnists in Toronto. Second of all, having someone openly lesbian in the largely rural and rightwing Tory caucus can't hurt. What's not to like?
I think she's a good example of how identifying as LGBT doesn't mean you're not evil.
What's not to like?One conservative with a riding in Toronto is one too many - until there's electoral reform that is - then they can get their "fair share".
Finally, in 2001, 14% of St Paul's was Jewish. While they may not be hard core Israel enthusiasts, the nominee should be ready if they need to answer a question or two about Sid Ryan. For example, do you believe that there should be a province-wide educational boycott on Israeli scholars and researchers? Unless you believe in burning books, please say no.
My answer: Sid Ryan is a man of great principle and courage and ought to be commended for his human rights advocacy for Palestinians. There aren't too many NDP votes to be lost (or gained) in Forest Hill and Cedarvale anyways...
The NDP ought to focus on the more working-class parts of the riding like the Vaughan Rd. area whose voters have been neglected for too long.
Levy may be a riding resident; but somehow, her "Sun-ness" seems a little off-kilter in St Pauls. She'd practically be better off in a seat like Beaches-East York, were it not effectively a Tory write-off these days...
Hoskins won the Liberal nomination.
reconsidered
The Toronto Star coverage of the Liberal nomination meeting stated that McGuinty is almost certain to call the byelection for Sept. 17 which will mean the NDP must reschedule our nomination meeting to an earlier date.
It's totally okay. I'm sure my skin is whiter than yours. :)Thanks, bekayne and Polunatic2. Looks like I made a bit of a blooper. My apologies, Stuart. :)
Yeah, that's what I thought too. Certainly your hair is lighter than mine! (Well, except for my grey...we won't discuss that.) :D But I know from my son, who is half South Asian but inherited my complexion, eye colour, and light hair, that looks alone can be deceiving. :)
So how are things going with the campaign? Any other candidates stepping up? Is there a deadline for declaring?
Levy will be an interesting candidate. the numbers federally and provincially are huge for the libs. but what i have not been able to figure out is if the riding is a liberal riding. or is the riding won by the candidate. ie is it liberal or is it a bryant and bennett riding.
levy will test that premis. if a majority of libs in the riding are or were bryant people then the riding is open for the taking. but if they are party people then it will be a red landslide
on the plane earlier this week i was sitting with the former press secretary to a pm and he told me that b4 levy was in the race it was a lib landslide. now he thinks that it could be similar to 1994 when hodgeson won that byelection that started the harris revolt and revulsion.
Are Ontarians silly enough to vote CONservative again?
Remind the real question is are Ontarians ready to be lied to again by dalton and reward him with another seat. by elections can be used as a revolt against the majority party. are the people of st. pauls 1.motivated to vote, 2 if they vote where does it go. ie party brand or was it personal. 3 are the libs motivated to vote or do they stay home?
remind and miles, I've learned to never under-estimate the levels of idiocy that the people in Ontario will stoop to.
I still haven't forgiven them for Harris' second majority win in 1999.
on the plane earlier this week i was sitting with the former press secretary to a pm and he told me that b4 levy was in the race it was a lib landslide. now he thinks that it could be similar to 1994 when hodgeson won that byelection that started the harris revolt and revulsion.
Not so sure--and if so, who's to say that Levy will be the prime beneficiary. Something about her just seems too coarse for the seat in question--if any queer female Tory standardbearer stood a chance in St. Paul's, it'd have to be along the lines of Nancy Ruth, not SAL...
