HST - Is Manitoba next?

27 posts / 0 new
Last post
genstrike
HST - Is Manitoba next?

Dan Lett had a fairly good article in the Free Press the other day about HST:

Smart Money is on Manitoba Getting HST

Quote:
It's amazing how quickly political stories can change.At the beginning of the week, the Free Press reported that Manitoba was considering a request from Ottawa to harmonize the PST with the federal GST. Manitoba has resisted federal pleas to harmonize the two taxes, but Finance Minister Greg Selinger confirmed he might be interested in what the federal government was selling. Manitoba was not "rushing" to harmonize, but the province was taking a good, long look at the proposal, Selinger said. Given the fact Ontario and British Columbia were moving to harmonize their sales taxes this year, after which the gross majority of provinces would have a HST, Manitoba had to consider getting with the program.

Ah, but that was Wednesday. By Thursday, the story had changed.

Premier Gary Doer, who was attending the annual premiers conference in Regina, had an entirely different spin on the issue. Doer told the Toronto Star he wasn't interested in harmonization. "The bottom line is we have opposed it."

In the course of two days we had a finance minister who was cautiously supportive of the HST and a premier who was decidedly skeptical.

Quote:
But if anything will tip the balance in favour of the HST in Manitoba, it is the fact that the opinion leaders in the business community, including Manitoba's chambers of commerce, passionately support the idea. Why would business get behind a tax increase? Having to collect and remit a single sales tax, instead of two separate taxes, will save businesses tons of money.

 

I think Dan Lett was dead on on this part, when he discussed the motivations of this government.

Quote:
Predicting Doer's final decision on the matter will be difficult given his propensity to keep his cards close to his vest. But there are some factors that should help make the outcome a tad more predictable.

First, while Doer is committed to being the NDP premier that never raises taxes, the more crucial long-term goal is to ensure that he does nothing to provoke the business community.

Doer fought to convince a lot of moderate conservative opinion leaders he was not a tax-and-spend New Democrat. Although enemies claim he is loyal to the NDP philosophy, many in the business community believe him to be the business-friendly socialist.

Political foes will jump all over the HST as a tax hike, but Doer will win much more support in the long run from the business community by embracing harmonization. And for that reason, we can conclude he is more interested than he's willing to admit. Being cautious is Doer's nature. But when it's all said and done, the tea leaves suggest Manitoba will have a HST.

Sadly, as a lot of people in Manitoba have learned through experience, Lett is pretty much dead on in his analysis of the decision making process at work (namely, give the business community whatever it asks).

I think Lett is right - give it a little while, so the government can say that everyone else is doing it and it's easier to hop on the bandwagon, and hope for some incentive from the federal government to smooth things over, and we're going to get an HST, I would guess before 2011, depending on how much political risk is calculated.

ghoris

I tend to agree, although I don't think this is about winning support from the business community so much as the cold hard reality of the numbers. I really think Manitoba will get stampeded into an HST by default. Someone (I think it was in the Freep) wrote that the three remaining holdouts - Manitoba, Saskatchewan and PEI - together count for less than 7% of the Canadian population. When provinces comprising 93% of the population have an HST it's hard to buck the trend.

I think where an NDP government can have a positive impact is to ensure that the HST is implemented in a progressive manner by legislating wide-spread exemptions for household goods and other necessaries, and for persons with lower incomes.

Stephen Gordon

No, the way to make sure it's progressive is to give money to low-income households - which is what the fed's GST rebate does. There's no point in exempting goods that rich people buy as well.

ghoris

Good point, but I think most people would be more interested in having a discount 'at the till' (so to speak) rather than having to wait 3 months for their next GST cheque. Not to mention that the federal GST/HST credit program (which I presume is what you are referring to when you referred to the 'fed's GST rebate', as opposed to the separate general rebate program for specific items) is, at best, a pretty rough guess as to how much GST lower-income people pay (and from what I recall when I was eligible to receive it, nowhere near reality).

Stephen Gordon

If the 3-month delay is the issue, why not try to make the payments monthly? And if the amounts are in question, why not revisit them?

These are projects that would be opposed by only the irredeemably stupid. Sadly, that may not be a majority.

ghoris

All good points (although I think you meant to say "Sadly, that may not be a minority.").  I guess I have little faith in the ability of the bureaucracy to actually be that nimble or efficient.

Stephen Gordon

Well, I disagree. It's not much more than writing a few computer programs. The private sector has managed to figure out how to perform monthly transactions; it's no great mystery.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Having two taxes that do almost the same thing is just a waste of time and effort.  I wonder if business would be willing to share the savings with an increase in the corporate tax or something similiar? 

Stephen Gordon

The idea of the HST is to simplify things so that people don't have to deal with two separate taxes. With the HST, the GST and the local PST become - as far as anyone who has to pay/collect it is concerned - a single tax. Once it's collected, the feds and the provinces share the revenues.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Yes I agree.  I know first hand about the issues that two systems create.  GST was fairly simple but the sales taxes vary in rate from province to province and have tons of exemptions and sometimes the exemptions are complex in that they apply to only specific consumers in specific transactions.  Particularly in an automated world two duplicate taxes just creates a lot of extra steps and expense.  My point was that if the harmonized sales tax would provide real cost savings, that business should be willing to pay for its implementation (not just ask for it).

wage zombie

Pogo wrote:

Particularly in an automated world two duplicate taxes just creates a lot of extra steps and expense.

I disagree.  In an automated world a lot of extra steps should not create much more expense.  Retail cash registers are designed to add a certain amount of tax to the total-but the operation itself is pretty inexpensive, and adding 2 different taxes (or 3 or 4 or 5) to the total isn't really any more complicated or time consuming than adding 1.

I just don't understand where these huge savings will come into play.

ghoris

I'm no economist (paging Stephen Gordon) but I understand that part of the pitch on HST 'savings' is that currently PST is levied at various points along the goods pipeline, and since businesses cannot deduct the PST they pay on goods and materials, those costs are eventually passed on to the consumer as a sort of 'hidden' tax. With a harmonized tax, businesses could get credits for PST paid on raw materials and goods, as they currently can for GST.  Someone should feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Stephen Gordon

That sounds right. With the GST, only the final consumer ends up paying the tax without getting a rebate in return.

Pogo Pogo's picture

wage zombie wrote:

I disagree.  In an automated world a lot of extra steps should not create much more expense.  

The thing is that there are so many 'fixes' that are put into the system.  A Governement makes a change and IT changes the % and pushes a button and it is overwritten throughout the system.  However it turns out that some of the businesses have a BC address in the system but the billing address is Alberta or they are GST or PST exempt or for a select range of products all of which the previous IT person had made patches for but didn't leave instructions when he left.  Bills fly out and customers pay them until one day months later they notice the error and flip out over how they have been robbed.  Hours are spent by accounting digging through bills and creditting the account.  Cost in time lost, cost in company reputation - Complexity costs money.

remind remind's picture

Conservative MP's trying to blame the provinces for HST, but their big lies are just that.

Quote:
That wasn't what happened in Ontario, according to senior provincial sources familiar with the deal.

Flaherty has "aggressively pursued" tax harmonization for the last year, but his original offer of financial help was far less than the $4.3 billion he finally agreed to provide the province, they said.

In fact, negotiations stalled at one point because Flaherty wasn't offering the province enough to take the plunge, they added.

"The federal Conservatives and Minister Flaherty have been advocates for this going back well over a year, and have in fact cut the cheques to make it happen," said one senior source.

The formula used to calculate Ontario's compensation served as the benchmark for Ottawa's agreement with B.C., which will receive $1.6 billion to make the switch. Flaherty has since offered the same formula to any other province that wants to jump aboard.

Ontario provincial Tory Bill Murdoch, who shares the riding with Miller, said his federal cousins are trying to "spin" the issue because they're afraid it will haunt them in the next election.

Tax harmonization is a "hot" issue among many of his constituents, who are "very upset" about it, he said.

V. Jara

Another way to make it more progressive is to institute a progressive income tax cut. In fact that could be used to ensure the HST is more or less revenue neutral, if Doer so desired. People that aren't on the tax rolls would still some form of rebate. An income tax cut also might have the added benefit of boosting provincial savings and generating more lending capacity for private investment.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Another way is to make it truly progressive.  Get rid of income tax and progressively tax consumption.  Take Income subtract Savings and tax the remainder (Spending/Consumption) in a progressive fashion.  Give a tax credit to simple livers (either forced or by choice) who spend well below the norm.

Imagine the impact on people's choices.

madmax

Stephen Gordon wrote:
No, the way to make sure it's progressive is to give money to low-income households - which is what the fed's GST rebate does. There's no point in exempting goods that rich people buy as well.
More reasons to not like economists. They live in the bubble world. Many low income households will be paying extra tax and NOT get rebates. Its just a fact. Many people of low income, marginalized, etc, who do not pay the GST do not get back a cent. Especially if they are homeless.

Stephen Gordon

For some reason, whenever I suggest giving money to poor people might be a good way of alleviating poverty, babblers confidently inform that this is a bad idea.

This puzzles me.

Pogo Pogo's picture

It is like Chomsky says.  You cannot fit all the extra parts (ie accepting the need for funding to people not on the tax rolls) into a simple statement.  Therefore you open yourself to criticism.

I think that if we are going to truly reduce consumption we have to use every tool of the state and taxation is one of the biggest.  Implicit in this is that any new mechanism must be tweaked to protect the most vulnerable.

Jacob Richter

Get rid of income tax?  I'd rather scrap sales taxes!  "Socialist Scandinavia" has the highest sales taxes in the world, just a tad below the wet dreams of the "Fair Tax" shit proposals in the US.

madmax

Stephen Gordon wrote:
For some reason, whenever I suggest giving money to poor people might be a good way of alleviating poverty, babblers confidently inform that this is a bad idea.

This puzzles me.

It puzzles me how  you  believe that the addition of the GST, one of the biggest tax grabs in Canadas history, benefited the poor. 

Pogo Pogo's picture

I don't think that is what he is saying.  There is a difference between what is the actual situation and what is the potential.  I don't like the GST/HST system because it is very hard to take universally and then credit those you shouldn't have taken from.  But it can be done.  I would rather move to a T4 based consumption tax.

madmax

You have my attention..Cool Do you know where you are going with this?

Pogo Pogo's picture

The basic structure is quite simple.  You report your income (I), and the money that you have not spent (S-savings).   The difference is your consumption.  Taxation is progressive based on consumption levels.  People who are outside the tax system (extreme poverty etc...) will report no consumption and pay no tax.  Progressive levels (including credits I suppose) would ensure basic consumption is taxed minimally if at all.  People who spend the most (after allowances for justified consumption - kids, remote location etc...) will pay higher rates.

It creates a pressure on consumption, and with progressive rates increased pressure on increase consumption.  It creates a far more efficient economy as money saved on consumption is moved into investment (even if it is just a savings account).

Obviously there needs to be a wealth tax system to accompany this (inheritance or moderate capital taxes - 1% every 10 years)

madmax

Stephen Gordon wrote:
The idea of the HST is to simplify things so that people don't have to deal with two separate taxes. With the HST, the GST and the local PST become - as far as anyone who has to pay/collect it is concerned - a single tax. Once it's collected, the feds and the provinces share the revenues.

 

In Ontario, I pay PST on flipping a Used Car but do not pay GST.  With a Harmonized tax, I will pay Both taxes.

I would like you to explain to me, that is a car is sold 12 times in 5 years it should be taxed 12 times. Where as a car sold 3 time times is taxed on 3 occassions.  Its a used vehicle and shouldn't be taxed, but it has been a major source of revenue for Provincial governments which is the only reason it exists and one of the sweetheart pickups for the Feds.

If you argue for this, then you may as well support the Tobin Tax.

madmax

Pogo wrote:
The basic structure is quite simple.  You report your income (I),..... snip .....Obviously there needs to be a wealth tax system to accompany this (inheritance or moderate capital taxes - 1% every 10 years)
I like it. I must be overlooking something LOL.Wink