I see a lot of similarities between Levy's candidacy and that of Peter Kent in '06 (i.e. there will be a very visible campaign and a high profile candidate but the votes just not being there) - and I think her showing will be similar.
I'm afraid Lord Palmerston is right about that. Unfortunately, Peter Kent was very effective at scaring Lib/NDP swing voters into voting Liberal.
I wonder if candidates actually living in the riding will play any part.
I think Levy lives there while Hoskins does not.
As to LTJ's concern about the presence of a high profile Tory candidate scaring voters into going Liberal, it's a different dynamic in a by-election obviously. Whoever wins, it's not going to skew the balance of power in the legislature. People can vote to 'send a message' while still preserving the status quo.
The Greens Chris Chopik also lives in the riding, has a business in the riding, and is a community organizer in the riding.
I suspect the dippers will have to move their nomination meeting up unless riding Liberals get their way and have McGuinty delay dropping the writ for a few more weeks.
Stuart Parker also lives in the riding.
Jullian Heller also lives in the St. Paul's, and has been active continuously in the local NDP for decades. If commitment to the riding is the litmus test, everyone else might as well give up now.
Levy has to move it 30% to win. I can't see that happening. Liberals have been beating Tories 2 to 1 in that riding.
In the old days (say 20+ years ago) it was a bellweather, but not any more.
Both Bennett and Mihevic and their crews will make sure people do not vote Tory.
Not only that but Forest Hill is the centre of the Rich Liberal Universe.
I heard the Liberals are running around saying the sky is falling, but I suspect it is the usual Liberal Energy Vampires making much ado about nothing.
The only discontent is among businesses along St. Clair W, who are suffering because of the excess of time it is talking to complete the streetcar route. Yet even there people realize that it will make that transit route much much safer for riders and pedestrians.
After a few calls from the usual suspects about supporting a racist and homophobic PC Party, watch for Levy's cage to be rattled. See if she doesn't melt down...
I see a lot of similarities between Levy's candidacy and that of Peter Kent in '06 (i.e. there will be a very visible campaign and a high profile candidate but the votes just not being there) - and I think her showing will be similar.I'm afraid Lord Palmerston is right about that. Unfortunately, Peter Kent was very effective at scaring Lib/NDP swing voters into voting Liberal.
Though in a seat like St Paul's, when have said swing voters ever not been scared into voting Liberal? Or at least lured into voting Liberal through urbane "swing-voter-compatible" candidates like Bryant, Bennett, etc...
I'm a fan of Benedict Anderson's book Imagined Communities, about the emergence of nationalism as an ideology. But I have to say, as a voting reformer, ridings in Canada aren't even imagined communities. They are imaginary communities. The important communities in any major cities (and anywhere really since the advent of the internet) transcend riding boundaries. Communities like rabble.ca are far more substantively real -- in representing real bases of fellowship, community and commonality -- than random selections of 110,000 people delineated by boundaries commissions.
Any democratic leftist is going to have more in common with another Canadian socialist on the other side of the country than she does with her Tory-voting nextdoor neighbour.
So, while I'm a resident of St. Paul's, I'm not going to lord this over Bob Frankford or any other alleged carpetbagger who comes to our judicially-determined turf.
The Greens Chris Chopik also lives in the riding, has a business in the riding, and is a community organizer in the riding.I hope to change this but, at this point, trying to build a time machine is often Plan A for post-1995 Ontario New Democrats.I suspect the dippers will have to move their nomination meeting up unless riding Liberals get their way and have McGuinty delay dropping the writ for a few more weeks.
really
Just as an aside there are 57 BIAs in Toronto. Maybe the local shopping neighborhoods would make better ridings than what was arbitrarily decided by the electioral boundaries commission.
It might be good if you were a kulak!
I'm a fan of Benedict Anderson's book Imagined Communities, about the emergence of nationalism as an ideology. But I have to say, as a voting reformer, ridings in Canada aren't even imagined communities. They are imaginary communities. The important communities in any major cities (and anywhere really since the advent of the internet) transcend riding boundaries. Communities like rabble.ca are far more substantively real -- in representing real bases of fellowship, community and commonality -- than random selections of 110,000 people delineated by boundaries commissions.
Any democratic leftist is going to have more in common with another Canadian socialist on the other side of the country than she does with her Tory-voting nextdoor neighbour.
So, while I'm a resident of St. Paul's, I'm not going to lord this over Bob Frankford or any other alleged carpetbagger who comes to our judicially-determined turf.
That is an excellent point.
[url=http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/682049]Stall St. Paul's byelection, jumpy Liberals urge premier[/url]
One Liberal insider urged the premier to delay, saying Hoskins "has had no time to put his name out in the riding and there's been no transition since Michael Bryant."In June, Bryant, economic development minister at the time, resigned the seat he had held since 1999.
Hoskins, a doctor and co-founder of the War Child Canada charity, won a hard-fought nomination battle last Wednesday over lawyer and riding association treasurer Charles Finlay and former senior bureaucrat Judith Moses.
The Liberals are bracing for a bruising battle with Levy, who is Jewish and openly gay in a riding with a significant Jewish population and a healthy contingent of socially liberal, fiscally conservative voters.
A PC insider said the Tories are banking on the New Democrats siphoning left-leaning voters away from the Liberals.So far, three people are vying for the NDP nomination: former Scarborough East MPP Bob Frankford, lawyer Julian Heller, and former British Columbia Green Party leader Stuart Parker.
[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mcguinty-calls-by-election-... calls byelection for Sept. 17[/url]
Why should the Liberals be "jumpy"? Besides the fact that they're probably making a mountain out of a molehill with Levy, isn't it good form (through British/Aussie/US precedent) to have automatic byelections/special elections?
I'll say one thing for McGuinty. He has been pretty consistent about calling byelections reasonably quickly after a vacancy, unlike Harper who leaves people without representation for as much as 8 months!
Here's the lay of the land:
The NDP has moved their nomination meeting to Monday, August 24 at 7:00 pm.
It's still at St. Matthew's Bracondale House, 707 St. Clair Avenue West. Bracondale House is located at the fourth bus stop westbound from St. Clair West Subway Station, across the street from McDonalds (south side). Here's [url=http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=707+St.+Clair+Avenue+West%2C+Tor... Google map[/url].
I'll say one thing for McGuinty. He has been pretty consistent about calling byelections reasonably quickly after a vacancy, unlike Harper who leaves people without representation for as much as 8 months!
And strategically speaking, it was clever to call the byelection at a moment when the NDP hadn't chosen their candidate yet, just so the press could report that the NDP (unlike the other three parties) hadn't chosen a candidate yet and lead people to think that yup, once again, the Dippers haven't gotten their act together...
Seems to me that the party slow on this stuff sometimes. I know that they can't predict the call, but Spet 17 always seemed a bit late, especially given that we've known about Bryant's decisions for a while.
From this map, much of Forest Hill did vote PC by over 60%, while other affluent areas voted Liberal. Anyone know the explanation for that?
I'm thinking "old money vs. new money".
Thanks, Scott. I was hoping it wasn't a religious difference.
I've promoting this via Facebook, cold calling and an e-mail blast to the riding members but in case I didn't get ou any of these ways, we're putting on a campaign open house at our home on Sunday afternoon. E-mail me to get more info.
On that front, I'd like to encourage rabblers to check out the new and much improved campaign web site at www.stuartparker.ca.
Looking at the map (thanks), I made a blooper in the first thread about Vaughn & Oakwood. It is clearly still within St. Pauls which means that all the apartment buildings on Vaughn Road are in St. Pauls. It's definitely an uphill battle for whoever wins the NDP nomination.
The blue area west of Bathurst isn't actually Forest Hill but has many "wannabes". It's known as Cedarvale if I'm not mistaken. The affluent areas east of Forest Hill are not as affluent as Forest Hill although that doesn't necessarily explain their liberal inclinations.
Also it's interesting how the map turns yellow just south of the riding border (Trinity-Spadina). Of course having an incumbent (Marchese) helps but I'm not sure that explains it. Could it be a difference in approaches by the two riding associations between elections?
Great improvements to your website Stuart! Best of luck stirring up the race.
Andrea Horwath's [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQfz1Zkvdog]YouTube appeal to St. Paul's voters[/url].
The blue area west of Bathurst isn't actually Forest Hill but has many "wannabes". It's known as Cedarvale if I'm not mistaken. The affluent areas east of Forest Hill are not as affluent as Forest Hill although that doesn't necessarily explain their liberal inclinations.
Exactly. The area east of Avenue Rd. is more "yuppie" with a large number of condo dwellers and renters and far less grand housing than Forest Hill. Forest Hill is for the most part extremely wealthy.
The 2007 election was unusual with Tory's school funding plan being so prevalent. A lot of normally Liberal Jewish voters went PC because of this issue (and it cost the Tories support among other demographics). In the last federal election the heavily Jewish areas of St. Paul stayed Liberal despite Harper's pro-Israel stance.
The blue area west of Bathurst isn't actually Forest Hill but has many "wannabes". It's known as Cedarvale if I'm not mistaken. The affluent areas east of Forest Hill are not as affluent as Forest Hill although that doesn't necessarily explain their liberal inclinations....
The 2007 election was unusual with Tory's school funding plan being so prevalent. A lot of normally Liberal Jewish voters went PC because of this issue (and it cost the Tories support among other demographics). In the last federal election the heavily Jewish areas of St. Paul stayed Liberal despite Harper's pro-Israel stance.
Thanks again. I must admit that I had already forgotten about that issue which makes a religious split more understandable, and apparently only temporary.
Looking at the map (thanks), I made a blooper in the first thread about Vaughn & Oakwood. It is clearly still within St. Pauls which means that all the apartment buildings on Vaughn Road are in St. Pauls. It's definitely an uphill battle for whoever wins the NDP nomination.
How is that particular zone "uphill"? Demographically, it's a very NDP-compatible kind of Liberal.
The blue area west of Bathurst isn't actually Forest Hill but has many "wannabes". It's known as Cedarvale if I'm not mistaken. The affluent areas east of Forest Hill are not as affluent as Forest Hill although that doesn't necessarily explain their liberal inclinations.
Actually, the present blueness of Cedarvale has a lot to do with its Jewishness--maybe the southernmost manifestation of the "Blue Jew" shift...
Which again, didn't occur in the 2008 federal election - look at the results for Cedarvale (polls 19 to 26).
The impact of Sue-Ann Levy's candidacy on the "Jewish vote" has been wildly overstated. If the "Jewish vote" didn't go Tory as a bloc in the federal election or in the last provincial election when funding for Jewish day schools was supposed to be a big issue for the Jewish community then it isn't going to swing Tory now. (And, frankly, as much as the CJC and Bnai Brith thought funding parochial schools was a top of mind issue for Jews - it wasn't).
I wonder why we keep being told that Sue Anne Levy is Jewish, but no one ever mentions that Julian Heller who ran for the NDP in St. Paul's in 2003 and 2007 and is trying to get the nomination this time - is also Jewish? I guess Jewish New Democrats don't count!
Which again, didn't occur in the 2008 federal election - look at the results for Cedarvale (polls 19 to 26).
Polls 19-26
NDP 135 (9.51)
Lib 635 (44.75)
GP 107 (7.54)
Con 535 (37.70)
Ltn 7 (.49)
Depends on what you mean by "didn't occur"--that's nearly 6 points lower than the Liberal mean, and nearly 11 points higher than the Tory mean...
And the same polls, 2006:
Libs 838 (47.9%)
Cons 550 (31.4%)
NDP 274 (15.7%)
Grns 82 (4.7%)
This represents, at most, a slight swing towards the Tories.
Returning to the provincial scene, I'm quite certain the partisan loyalties of these "John Tory Tories" are very weak and am not convinced they'll be all that impressed with Sue Ann Levy just because she is Jewish. Levy does however seem to be an interesting first test for Hudak, who is currently perceived as a "small town" leader opposed to human rights commissions. Don't think that issue will play too much in their favor in St. Paul.
Though consider the overall shift in St Paul's from 2006 to 2008...
Lib 2006 50.26%; Lib 2008 50.61%
Con 2006 25.77%; Con 2008 26.86%
NDP 2006 19.20%; NDP 2008 12.83%
GP 2006 4.78%; GP 2008 9.10%
So, especially relative to the riding at large, it's more than just a "slight swing"...
Within the context of St. Paul's, it is a shift. Within the context of the 2008 election overall, it is nothing special and certainly not a "realignment."
Within the context of St. Paul's, it is a shift. Within the context of the 2008 election overall, it is nothing special and certainly not a "realignment."
Well, I'm not claiming anything dramatically on the red-to-blue scale of Eg-Law/York Centre/Thornhill (or even, more recently, Mount Royal). But we'd also have to reach further back than 2006 to understand the gravity of the shift--and moreover, view it within, as you say, the context of St Paul's. So, to reiterate the earlier quote, in order to address it...
The blue area west of Bathurst isn't actually Forest Hill but has many "wannabes". It's known as Cedarvale if I'm not mistaken. The affluent areas east of Forest Hill are not as affluent as Forest Hill although that doesn't necessarily explain their liberal inclinations.
...my hunch is that, if a seat like present-day St Paul's configuration existed back in Mulroney days, the present east-of-Forest-Hill "affluent + Liberal inclination" zone would be bluer than Cedarvale: solid WASPy middle-class North Toronto Red Tory territory. It's more than "wannabeism" that explains Cedarvale's increasing blueness within the riding compared to yesteryear...
Returning to the NDP nomination, I agree with Stuart that the HST focus is a mistake as it feeds into anti-tax sentiment.
Keep in mind too that there have been a lot of demographic changes in North Toronto over the last two decades (more density, high rises, fewer families with children, etc.) that have benefitted the Liberals and hurt the Tories while Cedarvale has more or less remained the same place (a wealthy single-family dwelling suburban area). Keep in mind too that a lot of Jews live in North Toronto as well but they are less "affiliated." It is true that the Tories made inroads in the Jewish community in the last federal election, but that was either the worst showing or second worst showing for the Liberals ever, depending on how you measure it and the Liberals lost ground among virtually all groups. I'm not convinced the big "realignment" has occurred.
Agreed - unless it is played very carefully, and attacked as regressive taxation, with equal force given to attacking corporate welfare through tax cuts and other means.
My question is, why is it taking the NDP so long to nominate a candidate. The writ has been dropped and there is no NDP candidate canvassing the riding while today was a big launch BBQ and canvass for the Liberals. What a waste and, in my opinion, does not reflect well on the ONDP leadership that they are not taking this opportunity to present an alternative vision for Toronto and Ontario.
The NDP is nominating its candidate TODAY!
Is it already Monday where you are, Stockholm?
The original date was set for the 9th and that is almost a month after the Liberal nomination. Seriously what was the ONDP brain trust thinking? It wasn't a secret that there would be a by-election and with a Liberal nomination set for August 12th it's not a leap of logic to assume that they would call an election soon after.
In every paper that reported the election date of Sept 17th they also mentioned that the ONDP didn't have a candidate and would nominate one on the 9th... 8 days before the election for f**k sakes. Even the bloody Greens had a candidate nominated.
So we push up the date (that nobody knows about) and this is what we get, a candidate tomorrow then what? It's going to take 3-4 days to rent a campaign office, have the phones hooked up and print and design candidate cards. A week lost on the campaign trail and, more importantly, a chance to introduce Andrea to Ontarians on our terms all because we couldn't nominate a candidate around the same time as the Liberals.
This could have been a moment to recruit a "star" candidate and announce to the press and Ontarians that the ONDP is back and ready for government, but nooooo, instead of doing the obvious and competent thing we look like the gang who couldn't shoot straight. My question is why??? Was this election getting in the way of a summer cottage vacation??? Was the drive down the 400 was just too much work? Still hung over from Halifax??? Or do we just not care?
This is a by-election and every resource should have been made available and the campaign should have started the day Bryant resigned. That is unless the ONDP is happy being the butt of a political joke and has to hold it's breath to see if it will get official party status. Weak seriously weak.
I think you are making some very valid points about the party being better prepared for this byelection and that it is a bad sign for the new leadership. But that being said, I don't think that a "star candidate" would have ever been in the cards since St. Paul's is not a winnable seat for the NDP and never will be (unless the Liberals vanish - and even then St. Paul's would probably be to Ontario like what River Heights is to Manitoba - the one vestigial Liberal seat left after all else has disintegrated).
As much as I like Stuart Parker and I'm rooting for him, I suspect that Julian Heller (who btw is a really nice guy as well) will get the nomination based on all the connections he has as a long time resident of the riding with kids in the local schools and having already run in 2003 and 2007.
Obviously if the Liberals have nominated a candidate, the intent is to grab the seat quickly.
Regardless of the nomination date, the NDP can still get the office location, have the phones ready, and many campaigns run off cell phones today, in order not to lose time while landlines are installed. Election Signs are the thing, but as long as there are footsoldiers willing to go door to door and meet the public, identify the vote and get the sign locations, as long as the signs come, there is little to be concerned about.
The NDP has 3 candidates and any candidate has there work cut out for them in this riding. It is such a safe riding that the LPC choose a parachute candidate.
The NDP is going to have to demonstrate a good ground game, and see what the possibilities are.
I don't know any of the NDP candidates, and only seen Stuarts posts. So good luck to you, you seem willing to take on the hard work.
While I view this By election as a Liberal safe seat, I am interested in how all hte other parties do.
I see McGuinty and the Liberals never being held to account on anything they do. Thus even if the opposition parties fail to win this seat, I want to see them raise the issues.
In my best of dreams, I want to see the Liberals lose this seat and get bloody nose, as used to be traditional with by elections. The only thing the LIberals have done for Ontarians is make them not care about anything, including voting... LOL.
I know the NDP doesn't stand a snowball's chance in winning the riding but a "star" candidate would have signalled so much more and set the ground work for 2011. (Nice things fixed election dates.) This board loves to complain and blame the MSM for not following the NDP yet how can one blame the MSM with this piss poor performance.
Stockholm a star candidate wouldn't have won (then again stranger things have happened before) but it would have shown that the ONDP is a revitalised party that has the resources to attract talent and, more importantly, is ready for government. What a wasted opportunity.
YOu seem to think that all the NDP has to do is snap its fingers and a "star candidate" will suddenly appear who is willing to quit their job and go through the grueling hell of being a candidate knowing all along that there is zero chance of winning. Its hard enough to find "star candidates" in winnable seats let alone in unwinnable ones.
Meanwhile, the Levy campaign is dropping literature in apartment buildings telling people their rent is being increased...but it turns out to be an attack on the HST.
